全球资产配置方法论黄金框架性报告之三：对冲还是共振：从黄金与中美股债相关性演变探究黄金的资产配置价值

Group 1 - The report identifies that gold has the highest risk-reward ratio among domestic asset classes in the medium to long term, with a significant reason for its allocation being its low or even negative correlation with other asset classes [3][10][16] - The analysis of gold prices and their correlation with US and Chinese stock markets and bond yields is divided into four historical phases, highlighting the evolution of these relationships since 1971 [3][18][19] - The report emphasizes that the current driving factors for gold prices are central bank purchases and fiscal deficits, with a weak correlation expected with 10Y US Treasury yields and a strong correlation with US stocks [3][18][19] Group 2 - The historical correlation between London gold and US stocks, as well as 10Y US Treasury yields, is categorized into four stages, with each stage characterized by different economic drivers such as inflation expectations and fiscal deficits [3][18][19] - The report outlines that from 2002 to 2022, fiscal deficits and 10Y US Treasury yields primarily influenced gold price fluctuations, with a strong negative correlation observed between gold and 10Y US Treasury yields [3][18][55] - The analysis of the correlation between Shanghai gold and Chinese stock and bond markets is divided into two periods, indicating a significant shift in relationships due to central bank actions and fiscal policies [3][18][19]