工业硅、多晶硅早报：西北大厂减产带动盘面回暖，关注西北地区减产确定性-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Weak and volatile [1] - Polysilicon: Volatile and slightly bullish [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are at a historical low, with weak fundamentals but potential improvement in the photovoltaic industry, currently in a multi - empty game phase; polysilicon prices are likely to rise, with production at the bottom stabilizing and downstream demand showing signs of improvement [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Xinjiang sample silicon factories have a weekly output of 38,585 tons and a weekly operating rate of 80%, with a slight increase compared to last week due to the release of resumed production capacity. An Xinjiang leading enterprise plans to conduct large - scale production cuts on March 31 [1] - In February, industrial silicon production dropped to 289,500 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from January. Sichuan and Yunnan's production has reached historical lows. Although some production capacity in the northwest has resumed, the cost support for silicon prices is limited as the price has fallen below the cost line [2] Downstream Demand Side - Polysilicon production decreased in February, and the demand for industrial silicon is on a downward trend but may stabilize marginally; some organic silicon DMC manufacturers may cut production, reducing the demand for industrial silicon; the demand for industrial silicon from alloy silicon remains stable [2] Inventory - The inventory pressure is high. This week's inventory decreased by 5,000 tons compared to last week, and the current social inventory is 594,000 tons [2] Trading Logic - Industrial silicon production remains high, downstream polysilicon production stabilizes, organic silicon consumption of industrial silicon weakens, and silicon - aluminum alloy consumption of industrial silicon remains stable. High inventory suppresses industrial silicon prices. The price is in a multi - empty game phase [4] Operation Suggestion - Wait and see [4] Polysilicon Supply Side - Polysilicon spot prices are stable. In February, production decreased to 90,000 tons. Under industry self - discipline, production will not fluctuate significantly [3] Downstream Demand Side - Downstream silicon wafer production shows signs of stabilization and recovery, prices have increased slightly, and inventory is in a destocking cycle. The production schedule of downstream battery cells and components in April is good, which supports polysilicon prices [3] Inventory - Although polysilicon inventory has slightly increased due to the Spring Festival, it is still in the destocking cycle [3] Trading Logic - Polysilicon production stabilizes at the bottom, downstream demand is expected to improve, and inventory is in the destocking cycle. In the short term, there is insufficient driving force for an increase, showing a slightly bullish and volatile trend [4] Operation Suggestion - Buy on dips [4]