国泰君安期货：镍：镍矿支撑火法成本，精炼累库亦未兑现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the cost of pyrometallurgy is supported by nickel ore, and the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has not materialized [1] - For stainless steel, the short - term price is dominated by cost logic, while the medium - term supply and demand still face pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of Shanghai nickel futures was 131,600, up 1,570 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel futures was 13,535, up 95 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 249,977, an increase of 52,503 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless steel futures was 206,853, an increase of 39,941 compared to T - 1 [2] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel was 131,200, up 1,250 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price in Jiangsu) was 1,029, up 3 compared to T - 1; the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59, unchanged compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,625, up 100 compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The production line of Indonesia's GNI nickel - iron project has gradually resumed after production cuts in January - February 2025, with the capacity utilization rate increasing from 30% to 50% in March, and the output is expected to increase by about 0.2 million metal tons per month in March. It plans to achieve normal production by the end of April [2] - The Indonesian government has proposed to adjust non - tax national revenues, raising the resource tax rates of nickel ore, nickel - iron, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte from 10%, 2%, 5%, and 2% to the floating ranges of 14% - 19%, 5% - 7%, 5% - 7%, and 4.5% - 6.5% respectively [3] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the United States in response to US tariff threats [4] - The Ramu nickel - cobalt project's Basamuk HPAL plant has successfully resumed full - load production, and its MHP guidance output in 2025 is about 32,000 nickel metal tons [5] - Indonesia's ESDM signaled that new rules related to increasing mineral and coal royalties will be issued before Eid al - Fitr or March 31, 2025 [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral outlook [5]