Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The investment theme of the US stock technology sector in 2026 may be "shrinking the circle", with hardware outperforming software and platforms, and the market favoring companies with a closed - loop business model and more robust financial conditions [3][5]. - In the short term, the risk of US stock earnings reports has not been fully cleared. It is recommended to allocate defensive value sectors or consider going long on VIX to hedge risks. In the medium to long term, the investment opportunities in the US stock technology sector are still optimistic [15][18]. - Under regulatory guidance, Chinese stocks are moving forward steadily in a "slow - bull" market with a "slower slope". It is recommended to hold stocks during the Spring Festival, but the allocation should be balanced. In the medium term, three main investment lines should be grasped [19][23]. - The AI in the US stock market is a local bubble rather than a systemic one. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. The current situation may be close to that of 1997 from the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC [37]. Summary by Related Contents US Stocks - **Market Performance and Catalysts**: The US stock market had a 3 - day consecutive decline this week. The more stringent assessment of the "quality" of the earnings reports of US stock technology giants was the "trigger" for this adjustment. Since last November, the market's narrative on AI investment has shifted from "arms race" to "return on investment" [5]. - **Earnings Report Analysis of Tech Giants**: The 7 Sisters' guidance on Capex expenditure in 2026 is generally aggressive, almost doubling that of 2025. Google's earnings report exceeded expectations, but the doubling of Capex still caused a decline after the report. Microsoft was under pressure due to the disproportionate increase in cloud business revenue and capital expenditure. The ROIC of the 7 Sisters in Q4 2025 continued to decline, but the decline rate and slope were still controllable [3][9][11]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the risk of earnings reports has not been fully cleared. It is recommended to allocate appropriate value sectors for defense or consider going long on VIX to hedge risks. The 200 - day moving average may be a short - term effective support level for the Nasdaq. In the medium to long term, the investment opportunities in the US stock technology sector are still optimistic, with hardware outperforming the 7 Sisters and application software, and Google with a closed - loop business model being more favored [15][16][18]. - **AI Bubble Analysis**: The AI in the US stock market is a local bubble rather than a systemic one. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. From the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC, the current situation may be close to that of 1997. It is necessary to dynamically track whether the "ROIC - WACC" at the level of US stock technology giants and indices shows a sharp convergence trend [37]. Chinese Stocks - **Market Performance and Influencing Factors**: This week, the overall Chinese stock market was volatile and weak, with low - level cyclical and high - dividend sectors leading the rise. The performance of Hong Kong stocks was relatively weaker than that of A - shares, mainly affected by three factors: rumors of VAT adjustment, the anxiety about the subversion of the software ecosystem by Anthropic Claude, and the weak performance of A - shares and US stocks [19][20]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to hold stocks during the Spring Festival, but the allocation should be balanced, focusing on high - quality performance lines and supplemented by low - level cyclical and dividend sectors. In the medium term, three main investment lines should be grasped: technology assets with a clear industrial trend supported by policies, some new energy and chemical sectors with "supply - side clearance" and "demand - side improvement", and the non - ferrous sector supported by tight supply, strong structural demand, and catalyzed by interest rate cuts [23]. A - Share Earnings Forecast - The stocks in A - shares with an expected doubling of earnings growth are mainly concentrated in industries such as electronics, basic chemicals, biomedicine, and power equipment. For example, companies like Huisheng Bio, Kemeite Gas, and Xinqianglian are among them [24].

国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures CONTENTS 01 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 固定收益 – 美债收益率曲线和信用利差 • 固定收益 – 不同评级信用债相对强弱及欧元区利差 • 固定收益 – 美国国债发行量及一二级市场供需 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要国家国债收益率与美债利差走势 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品比价及产业链相对强弱 • 海外权益 – 全球主要指数及美股各行业周度表现 • 海外权益 – ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月5日，中国纸浆常熟港库存61.2万吨，较上周期下降1.3万吨，环比下降2.1%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月5日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存141万吨，较上周上涨2.0万吨，环比上涨1.4%。本周期青岛港库存周期内呈现 累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月5日，中国纸浆高栏港库存4.2万吨，较上周下降0.3万吨，环比下降6.7%。本周期高栏港库存呈现去库的趋势。 4.【中国纸浆 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 瓶片：震荡偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 观点小结 上游观点汇总 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 01 CONTENTS 基本面运行情况 2 观点小结 02 01 短纤（PF） 本周短纤观点：短期震荡，节前轻仓防范原料波动和节后累库 03 估值与利润 观点 节前预计保持震荡市为主，建议轻仓过节防范原料波动和节后累库。当前原油价格仍在高位，并给到一部分地缘溢价，后续来看地缘缓解可能 性高于继续恶化；虽然当前聚酯库存以及下游各个环节的原料库存都保持较低，成品库存可控，但下游今年放假规划长于聚酯，节后需要考验 下游出口和内需节奏是否能快速消化春节期间库存。 估值 当前现货加费900-1000元/吨；盘面加工费9 ...

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：成本端现实与预期博弈，价格走势震荡 | 基本面 | 条目 | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | 锰硅（内蒙古） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | | 供应 | 周产量（周） | 9.92 | 0.71% | -10.06% | 19.10 | -0.73% | -1.21% | | | 进口数量（12月） | 1.33 | -7.93% | -33.70% | 0.07 | -73.25% | -57.24% | | 需求 | 出口数量（12月） | 3.31 | 6.24% | -0.36% | 0.51 | -12.51% | 125.42% ...

国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内国内浮法玻璃产线略有波动，江苏两条浮法产线计划外放水，涉及产能1200吨。截至2026年2月5日，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后 | | --- | --- | | | 共计296条(19.95万吨/日），其中在产211条，冷修停产85条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为14.98万吨，比29日-0.79% | | | 本周（20260130-0205）浮法玻璃行业平均开工率71.86%，环比持平；浮法玻璃行业平均产能利用率75.61%，环比-0.09个百分点。截止2月5日， | | | 浮法玻璃日度损失量4.968万吨，环比+2.48%，周度损失量34.06万吨，环比+0.35%。 | | 需求 | 深加工： 截至20260115，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.3天，环比+7.9%，同比+86.4%。目前来看，随着春节脚步临近，加工厂多数进 | | | 入赶 ...

基本面重点事件: 1)配额事件:印尼仍在审批,窗口期的不确定性依然较大。印尼表示镍矿配额目标或削减至 2.5- 2.6 亿吨银矿配额,目前仍在陆续审批过程,部分企业拿到配额,但已拿到的配额量暂时低于往年。从产 业的想法来看,若矿端采取激进的"一刀切"方式,易于激化与下游外资冶炼企业的矛盾,鉴于往年印尼 仍有调整空间,产业对于印尼政策仍有观望情绪。就资金想法而言,主要站在长线周期的角度,因为印尼 防止过剩和挺价的心态是明确的,前期低价矿吸引冶炼的红利周期结束,在冶炼瑞产能过剩后,政策面则 有望出现周期性特向,叠加迈期各类资源利用规范事件的犹动、进一步增强了信心。同时,如果 1-12 月 目标配额落地,那么矿端紧缺可能倒逼冶炼端减产,从而将过剩预期扭转为紧缺,并对存量的高库存形成 冲击。因此,高价与累库并存的局面,实则是二级和产业双方在印尼政策预期上形成分歧,两种资金在盘 面形成对垒博弈。短线主要是有色宏观情绪阶段性转淡,节前部分投机属性资金离场,但是印尼政策的博 弈并未结束。 2026年2月8日 月检修减产频出。 成本支撑重 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 张再宇 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com ...

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2026年02月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：供需双弱，价格区间震荡 强弱分析：中性 精废价差小幅回落 ADC12-A00价差短期走强 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 元/吨 保太ADC12-A00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-1 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 唐文豪（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03152608 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：年前震荡调整为主 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：340000-400000元/吨 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 手 持仓量 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2018 2019 2025 2026 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年02月08日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：节前价格震荡收敛，关注宏观情绪面变化 ◆ 供应侧矿端减量。当下国产矿TC集中在1100-1600/金属吨，进口矿TC小幅下调，集 中20-40美元/干吨，Antamina等海外锌矿船货报盘价格已降至-15、-50美元/干吨； 此外，参考TECK最新公告，再次下调Antanima矿山26年生产指引，若考虑股权占比， 即Antamina26年产量同比下降27万吨，较此前再次下调9万吨左右。 ◆ 需求侧淡季明显。镀锌、氧化锌、压铸锌合金开工率环比下滑明显，节前订单不及预 期，多数企业已经进入假期模式，等待节后复工，仅少数大型企业保留极低负荷维持 核心订单交付，新单与采购全面停滞。 ◆ 长周期来看， ...