品 研 资料来源:文华财经,卓创,汇易,国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 2025 年 10月 31 日 右安期赏研 | 豆一：震荡 | | --- | 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价(日盘) ·涨跌 收盘价(夜盘) 涨跌 | | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 (元/吨) 4103 -13 (-0. 32%) 4092 -12 (-0. 29%) | | 期货 | DCE豆粕2601(元/吨) 2994 +20 (+0.67%) 2990 +9 (+0. 30%) | | | +13.75 (+1.26%) CBOT大豆01(美分/蒲) 1107 | | | na CBOT豆粕12(美元/短吨) 314. 9 +6.2 (+2. 01%) | | | 豆粕(43%) | | | 2970~3040. 较昨持平至+10:现货基差M2601+70. 持平:11-1月 山东(元/吨) M2601+50/+80. 持平:12-2月M2601+40/+70. 持平:2026年2-4月 ...

2025 年 10月 31 日 品 研 市场情绪反复 ,宽幅 市场情绪反复 宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园(联系人) 期货从业资格号: F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2601 | 5550 | -44 | 151, 336 | 166. 241 | | 期货 | 硅铁2605 | 5648 | -34 | 1. 358 | 7,078 | | | 锰硅2601 | 5842 | -10 | 178, 345 | 339, 837 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5890 | | 9.340 | 34. 714 | | 项目 | | | 价格 | 较前一交易日 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 52 ...

2025 年 10 月 31 日 铅：内外库存持续减少，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 研 究 期货研究 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17350 | -0.03% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2019 | -0.30% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 39452 | -6873 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 6134 | 299 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 69287 | -4231 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 153088 | 318 | | （手） | | | | | | ...

唱 研 2025 年 10月 31 日 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012691 李先飞 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 欧洲央行第三次"按兵不动",维持存款利率2%不变,经济韧性抵御贸易逆风。(华尔街见闻) 产业方面，印尼能源部的官员称，在去年禁止精矿出口后，印尼可能将允许铜矿商安曼国际矿业公司 (Amman Mineral international)出口铜精矿。(SMM) 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 若安期赏研 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 87, 960 | -0. 85% | 87270 >> | -0. 78% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10. 930 | -1.44% | | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期货 | 沪铜指数 | 428. 404 | 81. 170 | 620. 126 | 2. 982 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 35. 174 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Monitor risks in US banks [2] - Silver: Oscillate and rebound [2] - Copper: With increasing disturbing factors, prices will oscillate [2] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Lead: Continuous reduction in domestic and foreign inventories supports prices [2] - Tin: Pay attention to macro - impacts [2] - Aluminum: Fluctuations will converge; Alumina: Slight decline; Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: With the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, nickel prices will oscillate in a narrow range; Stainless steel: Limited downside potential, lack of upward drivers [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on prices, trading volume, positions, ETF holdings, inventories, spreads, and exchange rates of gold - related products are presented. For example, the closing price of Comex gold 2512 yesterday was 4038.30, with a daily increase of 2.45% [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were high - level meetings between China and the US, and central bank policies in Europe, Japan, etc. [4][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1 [6] Silver - **Fundamental Tracking**: Similar to gold, data on prices, trading volume, positions, ETF holdings, inventories, spreads, etc. of silver - related products are provided. For example, the closing price of Comex silver 2512 yesterday was 48.730, with a daily increase of 3.08% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 1 [6] Copper - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on prices, trading volume, positions, inventories, spreads, etc. of copper - related products are shown. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract yesterday was 87,960, with a daily decline of 0.85% [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: High - level meetings between China and the US, European central bank policies, and news in the copper industry such as potential copper concentrate exports in Indonesia, policy changes in the US, and production data from major copper producers [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10] Zinc - **Fundamental Tracking**: Information on prices, trading volume, positions, spreads, inventories, etc. of zinc - related products is given. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22365, with a decline of 0.29% [11]. - **News**: High - level meetings between China and the US and related tariff agreements [11] - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [13] Lead - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on prices, trading volume, positions, spreads, inventories, etc. of lead - related products are provided. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17350, with a decline of 0.03% [14]. - **News**: High - level meetings between China and the US and European central bank policies [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [14] Tin - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on prices, trading volume, positions, inventories, spreads, etc. of tin - related products are presented. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 283,600, with a daily decline of 1.09% [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: High - level meetings between China and the US, central bank policies in Europe, Japan, etc., as well as corporate news [17] - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [19] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Tracking**: Comprehensive data on prices, trading volume, positions, spreads, inventories, etc. of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy - related products are provided. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21245 [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: Japan's central bank policy and US Senate's resolution on tariffs [21] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0; Alumina trend intensity is - 1; Aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [21] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on prices, trading volume, positions, spreads, etc. of nickel and stainless - steel - related products are shown. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,980 [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Incidents in the Indonesian nickel mining industry, China's policy on imports, and potential US tariff policies [23][25] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0; Stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [25]

资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 31 日 铝：波动收敛 氧化铝：小幅下跌 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21245 | -50 | 80 | 225 | 730 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21265 | l | ー | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2870 | O | ર | 166 | 268 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 168592 | 16832 | 1247 | 25043 | 66023 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 ...

燃料油：相对低硫较弱，波动继续放大 2025 年 10 月 31 日 低硫燃料油：强势延续，外盘现货高低硫价差 继续上行 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2512 | 元/吨 | 2,770 | -2.02% | | 2,788 | -1.31% | | | | FU2601 | 元/吨 | 2.751 | -1. 31% | | 2, 760 | -1. 11% | | | | LU2512 | 元/吨 | 3, 255 | 0. 03% | | 3, 251 | 0.15% | | | | LU2601 | 元/吨 | 3.255 | 0. 15% | | 3.246 | 0. 34% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU251 ...

2025年10月31日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：偏强震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪反复，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪反复，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场情绪反复，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场情绪反复，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：偏强震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宏观与板块主题共振，偏强震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 31 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 802. 5 | -2.0 | -0. 25% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 551.548 | 8. 698 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, and pure benzene. Each commodity is expected to have different trends, such as high-level consolidation, short-term shock markets, or downward pressure [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high-level consolidation market. PXN should be shorted on rallies. The domestic PX plant operating rate is 85.9% (+1%), and the Asian overall load operating rate is 78.5% (+0.5%). Lock in profits when PXN is above $230 [8]. - **PTA**: With the decline in oil prices, the valuation has dropped. The unilateral upside is expected to be limited. The PTA processing fee is expected to expand in the short term [2][9]. - **MEG**: In a short-term shock market. The upside is expected to be limited. Domestic supply is expected to contract marginally, but port inventories are expected to be high [2][9]. Rubber - Expected to move in a range. The import rubber market reported higher prices this week, while the domestic natural rubber spot market was weak. Overseas and domestic production areas were affected by typhoons and heavy rains, and raw material prices were high. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies is expected to increase slightly next week [10][13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - Cost is moving down, but the macro environment is strong, and it is expected to move in a range. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber decreased this week, while the inventory of butadiene increased. The short-term market is expected to be volatile, and the medium-term price center is expected to move down [15][16][17]. Asphalt - Expected to follow crude oil and move in a range. This week, the domestic heavy-traffic asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, the asphalt device maintenance volume decreased, and the factory and social inventories decreased [18][30]. LLDPE - Expected to mainly move in a range. The domestic PE market price fluctuated narrowly this week. The upstream crude oil price fluctuated narrowly, and the overall maintenance loss increased. The demand for agricultural films and packaging films was weak, and the overall transaction volume was limited [32][33]. PP - Short-term decline has stopped, and medium-term is expected to be in a range. The domestic PP market price rose and then consolidated this week, and the price center moved up slightly. The short-term market rebounded reasonably, but the long-term downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally solve, so the market may be in a weak and volatile pattern in the medium term [36][37]. Caustic Soda - Valuation is suppressed. The Shandong liquid caustic soda market was weak this week, and most companies' inventories increased. The alumina industry has high production and high inventory, and the profit is continuously compressed. The caustic soda valuation is always suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation [40][41][42]. Pulp - Expected to move in a range. The domestic pulp market was flat this week, and the supply was loose. The downstream paper market tried to raise prices, but the actual implementation remained to be seen. The downstream overall operation was stable and weak, and the inventory problem was still prominent [46][48][50]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass market price was mainly stable today, and the market transaction was average. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. Float glass factories mainly reduce inventory and ship goods [51][52]. Methanol - Under shock pressure. The port methanol market weakened this period, and the inland methanol continued to decline. The methanol fundamentals are under great pressure, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term, with the medium-term price center moving down [54][57][58]. Urea - Under shock pressure. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased this week. The short-term fundamentals of urea are gradually weakening, but due to the macro-driven commodity index being strong and the coal price rising slightly, it is expected to present a volatile game pattern [59][60][62]. Styrene - Expected to mainly move in a range in the short term. The short positions should take profits. The crude oil price rebounded rapidly at a low level, driving the chemical valuation to repair upwards. The port inventory accumulation expectations of pure benzene and styrene in October have turned into destocking expectations. The short-term absolute price is mainly volatile [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market has changed little. The domestic soda ash market remained stable, and the price had no obvious fluctuation. The enterprise device fluctuation was small, the supply continued to hover at a high level, and there was no maintenance expectation. The downstream enterprise demand was lukewarm, and the market was weakly stable and volatile in the short term [67]. LPG - The official price of CP in November is slightly higher than market expectations. The PDH operating rate increased this week, and the MTBE and alkylation operating rates changed little [71][72]. Propylene - Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have changed to different degrees this week [72]. PVC - The trend remains weak. The PVC social inventory decreased slightly this week, but the year-on-year increase was 25.09%. The PVC market has a high production and high inventory structure, and the export growth rate may slow down [79]. Fuel Oil - Relatively weaker than low-sulfur fuel oil, and the volatility continues to increase. The low-sulfur fuel oil continues to be strong, and the price difference between high and low sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [81]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to consolidate in a range. The freight rates of European and US West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI have increased to different degrees [83].

2025 年 10 月 31 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银、焦煤、玻璃、碳酸锂期 货将偏强震荡 铜、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4723 和 4741 点，支撑位 4678 和 4653 点；IH2512 阻力位 3065 和 3080 点，支撑位 3030 和 3023 点；IC2512 阻力位 7395 和 7470 点，支撑位 7262 和 7200 点；IM2512 阻力位 7450 和 ...