Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of natural rubber futures last week showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with a weak and volatile trend and a slight overall decline. Looking ahead, considering the weakening macro - market sentiment due to Trump's tariff policy and the improving domestic economic data, along with the supply increment expectation from the opening of the Yunnan rubber - cutting season, high tire inventory, and the decelerating inventory accumulation in Qingdao, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downside space is relatively limited [6][85]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2505 of natural rubber futures ranged between 16,620 - 17,200 yuan/ton. It rose and then fell, with a weak and volatile trend and a slight overall decline. As of the close on March 28, 2025, it was reported at 16,670 yuan/ton, down 270 points or 1.59% for the week [5][11]. (2) Spot Price - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 16,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 21,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 17,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,390 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [15][18]. (3) Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly. As of March 28, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 120 yuan/ton, narrowing by 270 yuan/ton compared to last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both declined slightly compared to last week [23][25]. 2. Important Market Information - Trump announced a series of tariff policies, including a 25% tariff on all non - US - made cars, and also mentioned tariffs on the pharmaceutical and timber industries. The Fed's Moussallem believes that an economic recession is not imminent, and the inflation rate is expected to fall to 2% by 2027. Atlanta Fed President Bostic now expects only one interest rate cut this year. The US Q4 2024 GDP final annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up to 2.4%, and the core PCE price index increase was revised down to 2.6%. The US initial jobless claims last week decreased by 1,000 to 224,000, and the continuing jobless claims decreased by 25,000 to 1.856 million. The US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, a 3 - month low. The eurozone's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7, a 26 - month high. China's industrial enterprise profits improved in January - February 2025, and the auto and heavy - truck markets also showed certain growth trends [26][27][30]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of February 28, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Malaysia's production increased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Vietnam's decreased slightly, India's decreased significantly, Thailand's decreased significantly, and China had no production due to the off - season. The total production of main - producing countries in February 2025 was 694,800 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month. The cumulative production of synthetic rubber in China as of February 28, 2025, was 1.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China as of February 28, 2025, was 800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5% [38][43][47]. 4. Demand - side Situation - As of March 27, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 82.99%, down 0.12% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 68.11%, down 0.96% from last week. As of February 28, 2025, China's monthly auto production was 2.103 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 39.64% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.15%; monthly auto sales were 2.1286 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 34.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.17%; monthly heavy - truck sales were 81,363 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.09% and a month - on - month increase of 12.74%. As of December 31, 2024, China's monthly tire outer - tube production was 105.56 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. As of February 28, 2025, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 43.76 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 30.93% [52][55][60]. 5. Inventory - side Situation - As of March 28, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,250 tons, up 1,310 tons from last week. As of March 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,000 tons or 1.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 809,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. As of March 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons or 0.5%. Among them, the bonded area inventory was 73,000 tons, an increase of 3.27%; the general trade inventory was 529,300 tons, an increase of 0.13% [83]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - side: Global natural rubber supply is in the low - production season, with overseas supply shrinking. China is gradually entering the rubber - cutting season, and there is an expectation of supply increment in Yunnan. The supply - side support has weakened, and the import of natural rubber in China in the first two months of 2025 increased by 19.25% year - on - year. - Demand - side: The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires declined slightly last week but remained high. Tire inventory is at a year - on - year high. In February 2025, auto production and sales increased significantly year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month; heavy - truck sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The export volume of Chinese rubber tires in the first two months of 2025 increased by 3.3% year - on - year. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly, and the total inventory in Qingdao increased slightly with a decelerating inventory - accumulation speed [84]. 7.后市展望 - Similar to the core view, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downside space is relatively limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - and policy - sides, the weather in the main production areas, the rubber - cutting situation in Yunnan, rubber import, demand, and inventory changes [85][86]. 8.操作策略 - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies [8][87].
供应增量轮胎累库，盘面或将震荡偏弱
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-03-31 04:39