Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, methanol futures showed a relatively strong performance, with the methanol weighted closing at 2322 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 1.04% from the previous week. The current supply - demand fundamentals of methanol remain weak, but it may be supported by the macro - level and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow the guidance of the macro - level, geopolitics, and crude oil. It is suggested to consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [6][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Last week, boosted by the relatively strong port methanol, methanol futures showed a relatively strong performance. The methanol weighted closed at 2322 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 1.04% from the previous week. - Spot: Import apparent demand was weak last week. Port methanol inventory accumulated slightly at a high level, and the market tradable volume was high with an upper limit. Affected by the unstable international situation and positive macro - level, the market fluctuated and trended stronger. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2240 - 2330 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2220 - 2290 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices continued to decline, with enterprises focusing on reducing inventory by lowering prices before the festival. The price in the Ordos northern line in the main production area ranged from 1785 - 1805 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2100 - 2130 yuan/ton [14] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week (20260123 - 0129), China's methanol production was 2,037,735 tons, an increase of 28,820 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [15] - Downstream Demand: - Olefins: The average weekly operating rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased to 30.48%, a decrease of 13.90 percentage points from the previous week. - Dimethyl Ether: The capacity utilization rate was 5.92%, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. - Glacial Acetic Acid: The overall capacity utilization rate increased. - Chlorides: The operating rate of methane chlorides was 76.04%, with an increase in overall production and capacity utilization rate. - Formaldehyde: The operating rate was 33.32%, with a decrease in overall capacity utilization rate [18][20] - Inventory: - Sample enterprises: As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 265,700 tons, an increase of 27,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.50%. - Ports: As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1,472,100 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The inventory accumulation mainly occurred in the East China region [21][25] - Profit: Coal - to - methanol profit improved slightly but still showed an overall loss. The week - average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 266.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.58%. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 226.30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.71%. The week - average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 61.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16.00%. The week - average profit of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 290.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.02% [27] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, the number of restarted domestic methanol devices may be more than that of overhauled ones. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.98%, an increase from last week. - Downstream Demand: - Olefins: The operating rate of the MTO industry will increase slightly. - Dimethyl Ether: The Xinxiang Xinlianxin device is expected to stop production, and the overall capacity utilization rate may decrease. - Glacial Acetic Acid: The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. - Formaldehyde: The capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. - Chlorides: The domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate may continue to rise. - Inventory: - Sample enterprises: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 401,600 tons, continuing to decline. - Ports: The port methanol inventory is expected to decrease [30][31][33]

研究报告 聚烯烃月报 基本面未有明显改善，宏观与地缘仍是重要关注 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【行情复盘】 摘要： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 聚乙烯方面，1 月聚乙烯市场供大于需约 7.45 万吨。1 月聚 乙烯产量环比增加 1.68%，进口环比减少 15.78%，总供应量环比 减少 3.67%。1 月下游整体开工率下滑 2.02%，北方棚膜需求基本 收尾，整体开工率月环比下跌 8.08%；包装膜长协议订单跟进有 限，定制单连续性一般，环比下跌 3.04%。但原油价格上涨对油 制聚乙烯成本支撑力度增加，推动 LDPE 及 LLDPE 等价格上涨，但 下游包装膜制品价格下降，在一定程度上限制 HDPE 等薄膜价格涨 幅。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投 ...

研究报告 铝周报 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8894545 沪铝或震荡偏强运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | --- | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 国家统计局数据显示，2025 年，全国固定资产投资（不含农 户）485186 亿元，比上年下降 3.8%（按可比口径计算）。其中， 民间固定资产投资比上年下降 6.4%。从环比看，12 月份固定资产 投资（不含农户）下降 1.13%。铝土矿进口量维持高位，全球氧 化铝供给过剩情况延续。氧化铝产量持续保持增长，电解铝产量 增长加快。氧化铝库存有所回升。沪铝库存大幅上升，库存水平 处于近年来低位。LME 铝库存小幅下降。 【后市展望】 铝价或以震荡偏强趋势为主。套利机会有限。期权合约建议 观望为主。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铝供需变化 超预期 ...

沪铜库存上升明显 沪铜库存上升明显，LME铜库存出现增长，COMEX铜继续累库。综 合来看，铜价可能以震荡偏强行情为主。套利机会有限。期权合约建 议观望为主。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 风险提示：美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铜需求变 化超预期。 华龙期货投资咨询部 铜月报 铜价暴跌后，价格有望修复 内容提要 特朗普提名沃什接任美联储主席 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色研究员：刘江 国家统计局数据显示，2025年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润 总额73982.0亿元，比上年增长0.6%。2025年，主要行业利润情况如下： 黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润比上年增长3.0倍，有色金属冶炼和压 延加工业增长22.6%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长19.5%， 电力、热力生产和供应业增长13.9%。1月30日，美国总统特朗普通过 社交媒体宣布，提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什为下任美 联储主席，接替将于今年5月结束任期的鲍威尔。特朗普称，他与沃什 相识已久，沃什将成为最伟大的美联储主席之一。 铜产量保持增长 中国铜冶炼厂粗炼费（TC）、精炼费（RC）继续下降并维持低位。 中国精炼铜产量快 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the domestic stock index futures market showed significant structural differentiation. The large - cap blue - chip futures were relatively resilient, while the small and medium - cap index futures generally declined. The market experienced a process from high - sentiment and high - volume trading at the beginning of the month to style switching and shock convergence under the influence of macro - data in the second half of the month. The market was affected by short - term economic data disturbances and high overall valuations. In the future, the market is expected to shift from emotional fluctuations to a fundamental verification stage, and market opportunities may be more in a structural form [6][34][35] - The decline in macro - data suppressed the overall risk appetite of the market, which was the direct catalyst for the style switching and the adjustment of small and medium - cap index futures. High valuations amplified market volatility, and more unexpected positive factors were needed to drive the market up [35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Stock Index Futures**: In January, large - cap blue - chip futures were resilient, with the Shanghai 50 futures (IH) rising slightly monthly. Small and medium - cap index futures generally declined, with the CSI 500 futures (IC) and CSI 1000 futures (IM) having significant monthly declines. The specific data of the main futures contracts are as follows: the closing price of the CSI 300 futures (IF) on January 30 was 4,711.0, with a monthly increase of 0.04% (1.8); the closing price of the Shanghai 50 futures (IH) was 3,074.0, with a monthly increase of 1.19% (36.2); the closing price of the CSI 500 futures (IC) was 8,362.4, with a monthly decrease of 3.42% (- 295.8); the closing price of the CSI 1000 futures (IM) was 8,260.6, with a monthly decrease of 3.01% (- 256.0) [6] - **Bond Futures**: In January, all bond futures declined. The closing price of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures on January 30 was 111.920, with a monthly decrease of 0.33% (- 0.37); the closing price of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 108.310, with a monthly increase of 0.10% (0.110); the closing price of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 105.890, with a monthly decrease of 0.01% (- 0.015); the closing price of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 102.394, with a monthly decrease of 0.02% (- 0.022) [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In January, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [8] - In January, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [12] - In January, the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down compared with the previous month [13] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of January 30, the PE of the CSI 300 index was 14.18 times, the percentile was 85.88%, and the PB was 1.49 times; the PE of the Shanghai 50 index was 11.72 times, the percentile was 85.1%, and the PB was 1.29 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 37.93 times, the percentile was 87.65%, and the PB was 2.61 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 50.27 times, the percentile was 82.94%, and the PB was 2.68 times [15] 3.4 Other Data - **Stock - Bond Yield Spread**: The stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market return rate and the Treasury bond yield rate. There are two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [27] - **China - Buffett Index**: On January 30, 2026, the ratio of the total market value to GDP was 91.71%. The current "total market value/GDP" percentile in historical data was 91.68%, and in the data of the past 10 years, it was 95.67% [31] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - Macro - economically, the macro - economic data released in January affected market sentiment. The decline of PMI indices in manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and the composite index below the critical point indicated a short - term slowdown in economic activities, which triggered market concerns about the fundamentals and led to a shift of funds from high - elasticity sectors to defensive sectors. However, there were positive differentiations in the data: the PMI of high - tech manufacturing remained in a high - prosperity range, and the raw material and ex - factory price indices rebounded, indicating possible marginal improvement in corporate profit expectations [34] - In terms of valuation, although the market adjusted, the valuation pressure of major indices was still obvious. The valuation percentiles of the CSI 300 index and the Shanghai 50 index were at relatively high historical levels, the valuation percentile of the CSI 500 index was close to the historical high, and the ratio of the total market value to GDP was also in a high - percentile range. High overall valuations made the market more sensitive to negative information and limited the space for further rapid valuation increase [34] 3.6 Operational Suggestions - **Unilateral Trading**: It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see. Before the macro - signals and valuation pressure are significantly improved, wait patiently for clearer stabilization signals and avoid blindly chasing up or bottom - fishing [36] - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the spread - convergence strategy of going long on IH and shorting IM. If the market's expectation of economic recovery turns moderate, the large - cap style with stable profits and relatively reasonable valuations may continue to show its defensive allocation value [36] - **Options**: For investors holding spot stocks, they can use the covered - call strategy to increase returns. At the same time, to prevent uncertain risks, they can consider buying an appropriate amount of out - of - the - money put options for downside protection [36]

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱：多空交织，但"供强需弱"核心未变 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 上周纯碱主力合约价格在 1176-1230 元/吨之间运行。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日白盘收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2605 上涨 6 元/吨，周度涨 0.50%，报收 1204 元/吨。 【综合分析】 综合来看，"供强需弱"的核心矛盾未变，市场缺乏强劲的 上涨驱动，春节前的补库需求带来的支撑力度有限，价格或将继 续维持震荡，上方空间受限于基本面压力。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 一、纯碱供需情况 （一）产量、产能分析 截止 2026 年 1 月 29 日，当周国内纯碱 ...

研究报告 供需博弈叠加政策稳供 玉米市场延续区间震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 【行情复盘】 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 上周玉米期货盘面震荡偏弱运行，主力合约 C2603 在周初冲 高后承压回落，周截至上周五收盘，玉米期货主力合约 C2603 收 报 2271 元/吨，跌 0.09%。CBOT 玉米期货盘面震荡运行，截至上 周收盘报 428.25 美分/蒲式耳，跌 0.58%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 上周全国玉米周均价为 2332 元/吨，环比涨 6 元/吨；东北产 区玉米价格窄幅波动，价格重心小幅上移，截至上周五，哈尔滨 二等玉米价格为 2160 元/吨，较前周涨 5 元/吨；沈阳二等玉米价 格为 2280 元/吨，较前周涨 10 元/吨；华北产区玉米价格整体稳 定，深加工企业窄幅调价，截至上周五，山东潍坊寿光金玉米收 购 ...

摘要： 【行情复盘】 1 月玻璃主力合约价格在 1035-1171 元/吨之间运行。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日下午收盘，当月玻璃期货主力合约 FG2605 下跌 31 元/吨，月度涨跌-2.85%，报收 1056 元/吨。 【重点数据趋势】 1 月，浮法玻璃市场呈现下行趋势，全国浮法玻璃市场均价 1090 元/吨，环比跌 39 元/吨，跌幅 3.45%。 研究报告 玻璃月报 2026 年 1 月玻璃月度报告 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | 研究员：侯帆 | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 | | | | 电话：15117218912 | | | | 邮箱：houfan@qq.com | | | | 年 报告日期：2026 2 | 月 | 日星期一 2 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 1 月，浮法玻璃样本企业库存呈现 ...

| 投资咨询业务资格： | | | --- | --- | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：2 月螺纹 2605 合约上涨 0.03%。 研究报告 螺纹月报 2 月钢价或将震荡运行 基本面：世界钢铁协会数据显示，2025 年 12 月全球 70 个纳入世界 钢铁协会统计国家/地区的粗钢产量为 1.396 亿吨，同比下降 3.7%。2025 年全年全球粗钢产量为 18.494 亿吨。据国家统计局，2025 年中国粗钢产 量约为 9.61 亿吨，同比下降 4.4%。自 2020 年达到峰值后，首次降至 10 亿吨以下。 后市展望：1 月底，螺纹钢周社会库存 326.4 万吨，环比上升 7.7%， 同比降幅达 27.5%，库存累积符合春节 ...

研究报告 鸡蛋月报 春节备货驱动蛋价反弹，期现分化凸显市场预期差 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 1 月，鸡蛋期货主力换月至 2603 合约，盘面整体呈现震荡走 势，全月最高价 3101 元/500 千克，最低价 2970 元/500 千克，截 至上周五，鸡蛋主力 JD2603 合约报收 3002 元/500 千克，跌 1.51%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 1 月鸡蛋市场受春节备货节日效应提振，整体走势偏强，蛋 价涨幅显著，主产区鸡蛋月均价 3.51 元/斤，环比涨 0.49 元/斤， 主销区均价 3.52 元/斤，环比涨 0.45 元/斤，截至 1 月 30 日鸡蛋 基差达 998 元/500 千克，处于近期高位，现货端强势上行与期货 盘面形成明显分化；蛋价上涨带动养殖端补栏积极性提 ...