1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the strong downstream demand for caustic soda drove the continuous rise of caustic soda futures. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted price of caustic soda futures reached 2,756 yuan/ton, a 4.51% increase from the previous week. The favorable fundamentals also led to an increase in both futures and spot prices of caustic soda [6][7][11]. - The caustic soda futures are expected to remain strong. After a pullback, long - position operations should still be considered [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Trend Review - Last week, the caustic soda futures continued to rise due to strong downstream demand. The weighted price of caustic soda futures closed at 2,756 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 4.51% from the previous week. In the spot market, the weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 836 yuan/ton, a 3.98% increase from the previous week [6][11]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Fundamental Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.2%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous week. There were different trends in different regions, such as a 3.9% decrease in the Northwest to 87.1% and a 0.1% increase in Shandong to 88.4% [15]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operation of the main downstream industries of caustic soda was generally stable. The alumina production remained stable, and the capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.18% to 86.22% [18]. - **Liquid Caustic Soda Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 396,400 tons (wet tons), a 9.46% decrease from the previous week. Inventory trends varied by region, with most regions experiencing inventory declines, while the inventory in the Northwest increased slightly [21]. - **Profit of Chlor - Alkali Enterprises in Shandong**: Last week, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the price of caustic soda increased, and the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased. The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 349 yuan/ton, a 21.18% increase from the previous week [24]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Trend Outlook - **Liquid Caustic Soda**: In East China, major enterprises are expected to undergo maintenance this week, and non - aluminum stocking demand is increasing. The inventory pressure on enterprises is not significant, and the price of liquid caustic soda is expected to rise steadily. The price of liquid caustic soda in eastern Shandong may still increase [28]. - **Flake Caustic Soda**: The market in other domestic regions is mainly consolidating. In Inner Mongolia, the maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and the new order quotes of manufacturers are expected to remain stable [9].

研究报告 橡胶周报 降息升温天气扰动，盘面或将震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格在 15470-16020 元/吨 之间运行，上周 RU2601 期货价格震荡偏弱，总体小幅下跌。 截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2601 报收 15625 元/吨，当周下跌 280 点，跌幅 1.76%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡偏弱，总体小幅 下跌。 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 展望后市，宏观方面，周末美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍 尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话，称就业面临的下行风险上升，加 大市场对美联储 9 月降息预期；同时关注关注美俄乌三国元首 会晤情况。从基本面来看，供给方面，近期东南亚主产区和国 内产区降雨较多，本周末台风"剑鱼"登陆海南，影响割胶工 作，提振原料价格，供给端存在一定支 ...

研究报告 鸡蛋周报 "旺季不旺"困局难破，蛋价持续探底之路 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 上周鸡蛋期货盘面破位下行，主力 2510 合约创下上市以来新 低，截至上周五收盘，JD2510 合约报 3033 元/500 千克，跌 0.07%， 成交量 526,351 手，持仓 434,281 手。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 上周鸡蛋市场延续弱势，主产区鸡蛋均价报 3.19 元/斤，虽 环比小幅上涨 5.63%，但仍处于历史同期低位，呈现"旺季不旺" 特征。周内短暂补库带动价格试探性反弹，但受新开产蛋鸡持续 增加及终端需求疲软影响，"供强需弱"矛盾依然突出，现货价 格最终承压阴跌。养殖持续亏损严重打击行业信心，补栏意愿低 迷，鸡苗均价环比下跌 2.29%至 2.99 元/羽，种蛋利用率仅约 50%。 同时淘汰鸡价 ...

研究报告 铜周报 美联储主席暗示可能下月降息，沪铜或震荡偏强运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | 电话：0931-8582647 | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 8 | 月 | 25 | 日星期一 | 摘要： 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 国家统计局数据显示，7 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实 际增长 5.7%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从 环比看，7 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.38%。1—7 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.3%。美国联邦储备委员会 主席鲍威尔 22 日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会 上发表讲话，暗示尽管当前存在通胀上行风险，但美联储仍 ...

研究报告 股指周报 上周 A 股市场评述 摘要： 【行情复盘】 8 月 22 日，A 股延续强势表现，沪指一举突破 3800 点，再创 十年新高。截止收盘，沪指涨 1.45%，收报 3825.76 点；深证成 指涨 2.07%，收报 12166.06 点；创业板指涨 3.36%，收报 2682.55 点；科创 50 指数涨 8.59%，收报 1247.86 点。行业板块涨多跌少， 半导体、电子化学品、证券、教育、计算机设备、软件开发板块 涨幅居前，燃气、化肥行业、石油行业、银行板块跌幅居前。沪 深两市成交额达到 25467 亿，较昨日放量 1227 亿。 【债券】 上周，国债期货集体上涨。具体如下： | | 主力合约名称 | 上周涨跌幅(%) | 上周收盘价(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 30 | 年期国债期货 | -1.05 | 115.980 | | 10 | 年期国债期货 | -0.52 | 107.660 | | 5 | 年期国债期货 | -0.28 | 105.370 | | 2 | 年期国债期货 | -0.06 | 102.318 | | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | ...

研究报告 螺纹周报 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 焦煤限产再起波澜，钢价或出现反弹转机 投资咨询业务资格： 摘要： 黑色板块研究员：魏云 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2601 合约下跌 2.05%，周五夜盘受焦 企限产扰动，焦煤带动钢价反弹。 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周市场传闻山东焦企自 8 月 16 日 起将限产 30%–50%，预计持续至 9 月初结束。据我的钢铁网调 研，目前山东少数焦企已于上周在原有减产基础上进一步加大 限产力度，目前限产幅度在 20%-30%，后续限产比例仍将继续上 调。据世界钢铁协会数据，2025 年 7 月，全球粗钢产量为 1.5 亿吨，同比减少 1.3%；1-7 月，全球粗钢产量为 10.862 亿吨， 同比减少 1.9%。7 月中国钢铁产量 7966 万吨，同比减少 4.0%。 据中钢协数据，8 月中旬，21 个城市 ...

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱利润端持续恶化 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2601 价格在1289-1413 元/吨之间运行， 价格震荡整理。 截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2601 下跌 69 元/吨，周度涨跌-4.95%，报收 1326 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率双增，截止到 2025 年 8 月 21 日， 国内纯碱产量 77.14 万吨，环比增加 1.01 万吨。纯碱综合产能利 用率 88.48%，前一周 87.32%，环比增加 1.15%。 尽管纯碱利润端持续恶化，但行业尚未出现大规模、深度亏 损。相关政策（如 2016 年的供给侧改革）通常需要在大面积亏损 导致企业现金流断裂时，才倒逼强力去产能。目前可能还未到那 个阶段。同时，短期终端需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the steel industry is ★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the steel price had a short - term decline, but the outlook for the black sector remains bullish. It is expected that the steel price will show a moderately bullish and volatile trend in the medium term [5][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Involves the daily K - line chart of the main contract of rebar futures [6] - **Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin was 3,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day [12] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific analysis results are provided, only the topic is mentioned [13] Important Market Information - From January to July, national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%; residential investment was 412.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. In July, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend [16] - On August 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months [16] Supply - side Situation - Mysteel's survey shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 4.75%. The average daily hot metal output was 2.4066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.189 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year increase of 61.04% [5][33] - In July, China's steel output was 122.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%; from January to July, the steel output was 860.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. In July, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In July, China's pig iron output was 70.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; from January to July, the pig iron output was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [5][33] - In early August, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.7% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the daily output of pig iron was 2.33 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%; and the daily output of steel was 4.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [34] Demand - side Situation - As of July 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 50.6, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%; the current value of the purchasing manager's index for the steel circulation industry was 49.8, a month - on - month increase of 4.2% [25] Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 138.1927 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.3467 million tons, an increase of 0.1282 million tons; the number of ships at the port was 93, a decrease of 12. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.8157 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.143 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.468 million tons, an increase of 0.1035 million tons [33] 后市展望 - Last week, the steel price had a short - term decline, but the black sector is still expected to be bullish. It is expected that the steel price will show a moderately bullish and volatile trend in the medium term [35] Operation Strategy - **Single - sided**: It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [5][37] - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [5][37] - **Options**: Consider selling put options [5][37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol remains weak, and it is likely to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][10][34] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to limited improvement in the methanol fundamentals, methanol futures continued to decline and adjust. By Friday afternoon's close, methanol weighted closed at 2,383 yuan/ton, a 1.85% drop from the previous week. The port methanol market was slightly weaker, while the inland market continued to rise [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, China's methanol production was 1,863,275 tons, an increase of 18,050 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 82.40%, a 0.97% increase from the previous week [15] 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products varied. The olefin industry's start - up decreased slightly, the dimethyl ether's capacity utilization rate increased by 34.15% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rates of ice acetic acid, chloride, and formaldehyde all increased [18][20] 2.3 Inventory - As of August 13, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 295,600 tons, a 0.64% increase from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 219,400 tons, an 8.90% decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory continued to increase significantly, with a 10.41% week - on - week increase [21][24] 2.4 Profit - Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol showed differences. Coal - based profits narrowed, coke - oven gas - based profits increased, and natural - gas - based profits had limited fluctuations [27] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, it is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1.8948 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 83.80%, an increase from last week [31] 3.2 Downstream Demand - The start - up rates of the olefin and dimethyl ether industries are expected to increase, while the capacity utilization rates of ice acetic acid, chloride, and formaldehyde may change differently. The overall demand for methanol remains weak [32][34] 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 295,800 tons, with little change from the previous period. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index futures continued to fluctuate upwards, but market differentiation intensified, showing the characteristic of "strong index, weak stocks". The core contradiction lies in the game between policy expectations and economic reality. The market presents a game feature of "policy support" and "fundamental pressure", and it is necessary to focus on the matching degree between policy implementation efficiency and marginal improvement of economic data. Maintain optimism in the medium - long term, but be vigilant against short - term fluctuations caused by repeated expectations of peripheral liquidity [31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On August 15, the three major A - share indexes continued their strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.60%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.61%. Most industry sectors rose, with only the banking sector falling. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion for three consecutive days, with a turnover of more than 2.2 trillion on that day, slightly lower than the previous trading day [1] - Last week, treasury bond futures rose collectively. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had respective price changes of - 1.48%, - 0.29%, - 0.15%, and - 0.02% [2] - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened collectively. The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures had weekly increases of 3.09%, 2.19%, 4.88%, and 5.21% respectively [7] Fundamental Analysis - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and by 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [8] - From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. Residential investment was 412.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. Various indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [8] - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, it was 28.4238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The central bank will focus on the supply - side to promote consumption [9] - Last week, the central bank conducted 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and had 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, with a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. It also carried out 500 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. This week, there will be 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities and 22 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities [10] Valuation Analysis - As of August 15, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 Index were 13.42 times, 74.12%, and 1.42 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 Index were 11.55 times, 86.08%, and 1.28 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 Index were 30.95 times, 74.12%, and 2.09 times respectively; those of the CSI 1000 Index were 42.88 times, 69.8%, and 2.38 times respectively [14] - The stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield, with two calculation formulas provided [26] China - Buffett Indicator - On August 14, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 81.59%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 78.56%, and in the last 10 - year data was 78.99% [29] Comprehensive Analysis - The consumer recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, but there are structural highlights in consumption. Industrial production is stable, and high - tech manufacturing continues to lead. Policy - wise, the loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged, but the rebound of US PPI may restrict the inflow of foreign capital. Domestic fiscal policy is still being implemented, and the impact of special treasury bonds on infrastructure may appear in the third quarter. The market volatility remains low, and investors expect limited short - term breakthroughs [31] Operation Recommendations - Unilateral: Control risks, buy on dips, and avoid chasing highs [32] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33] - Options: Consider the covered call strategy to increase returns [34]