贵金属周报：金价持续上行-2025-03-31

Report Overview - The report is a weekly precious metals report dated March 31, 2025, focusing on gold price trends and influencing factors [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In Q1, gold prices continued to rise, with New York gold rising from around $2,650 at the beginning of the year to around $3,100 at the end of the quarter, and Shanghai gold rising from around 620 to 720. The upward momentum mainly comes from three aspects: rising global inflation expectations due to US tariff hikes, increasing US economic recession expectations leading to weakening of the US dollar and US stocks and rising safe - haven demand, and declining US dollar credit, de - globalization, and de - dollarization [5] - In Q2, the US economy is expected to continue to weaken under the background of the tariff war, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may rise. The European economy is expected to improve, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields are expected to be weak, with the US dollar possibly breaking below the 100 mark, which will provide upward momentum for gold prices. The continuous progress of the cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine may lead to a large - scale cease - fire agreement, and the easing of geopolitical tensions may put pressure on gold prices. Gold prices in Q2 may show a wide - range volatile and slightly upward trend [6] - In the long term, after Trump took office, he intensively introduced tariff - hiking policies, accelerating the processes of de - globalization and de - dollarization, reducing the US dollar credit, and continuously increasing the global demand for gold as a safe - haven and reserve. During the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, and the continuous increase in ETF demand will also drive gold prices up. Gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the long term [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - No specific content about the weekly trend is provided other than references to related charts 1.2 Indicator Gains and Losses - From March 21 to March 28, COMEX gold rose from $3,028.20 to $3,118.00, a 2.97% increase; COMEX silver rose from $33.53 to $34.82, a 3.85% increase; SHFE gold futures rose from 706.96 to 722.80, a 2.24% increase; SHFE silver futures rose from 8,207.00 to 8,512.00, a 3.72% increase. The US dollar index decreased by 0.12%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB increased by 0.16%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.02, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.53%, and the US crude oil continuous contract increased by 1.10%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.85%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.42%. SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.43, and iShare Gold ETF decreased by 0.41 [11] 2. New York Gold Breaks Through $3,100 - Last week, gold prices strengthened again after a strong high - level oscillation. New York gold reached the $3,100 mark, and Shanghai gold reached the 720 mark. The US dollar index and US stocks both showed a trend of rising, then falling, and a second bottom - testing [13] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - As of March 25, compared with last week, long - position holdings decreased by 5,082 contracts, short - position holdings increased by 3,054 contracts, and net long - position holdings decreased by 8,136 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. In early March, gold prices rebounded after hitting the bottom, but the net non - commercial long - position holdings on COMEX continued to decline, indicating strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions [17] - In Q1, the holdings of major global gold ETFs increased significantly, especially after Trump took office, which largely reflects the rising safe - haven demand in the context of de - globalization [18] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the upward trend of gold prices in Q1, the influencing factors, the expected performance of gold prices in Q2, and the long - term upward trend [27][28]