锌镍不锈钢早报：“以旧换新”促汽车消费，镍锌需求依旧不足-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: Bearish [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways [1] - Zinc: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "trade-in" policy promotes automobile consumption, but the demand for nickel and zinc remains insufficient [1] - The seasonal tightness of nickel ore will improve after April, and the overall supply of pure nickel remains high. The profit of stainless steel has been repaired, but the production may be affected. The export demand of stainless steel may increase, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel. It is recommended to roll short [2] - The supply side of zinc has fully loosened. Although the short - term demand may be slightly stronger than the supply, it is expected to weaken in the medium term. It is recommended to short [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro & Industry News - As of March 28, 2025, the number of subsidy applications for automobile "trade - in" has exceeded 1.769 million. The cumulative retail sales of new - energy passenger cars this year have exceeded 2.05 million, a year - on - year increase of about 34% [1] 2. Nickel & Stainless Steel - The price of nickel ore has a small seasonal increase due to the rainy season in the Philippines, but there is no continuous upward momentum. The overall supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month but remains at the highest level in the same period of history [2] - The production cost of electrowinning nickel reached 124,000 yuan/ton at the end of February. The demand support provided by the cost of downstream nickel sulfate is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both lower than before [2] - The profit of stainless steel has been significantly repaired, but the repair has slowed down since the second half of March, and the production may be affected. The export demand of stainless steel may increase, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel. The operation suggestion is to roll short [2] 3. Zinc - In terms of TC changes, the supply of the ore end has fully loosened. After March, the rebound of TC prices has stagnated. The smelting profit has been rapidly repaired, and the domestic zinc concentrate smelting enterprises' production is expected to be high [2] - Galvanized sheet manufacturers have resumed production, and the weekly output has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. Although the short - term demand may be slightly stronger than the supply, it is expected to weaken in the medium term. The operation suggestion is to short [2] 4. Charts and Data (Not Detailed in Text, Only Mentioned) - There are charts about macro indicators (exchange rate, Dow Jones Index), spot premiums and discounts (for nickel, zinc, lead, stainless steel), spread analysis, inventory analysis, profit, and import profit and loss [4][6][24][33][45][53]