讯飞医疗科技：Accelerated growth in 2H24 solidifies leadership in medical AI-20250331

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xunfei Healthcare, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [13]. Core Insights - Xunfei Healthcare reported a strong revenue growth of 32.0% YoY in 2024, reaching RMB 734.0 million, with a notable acceleration in growth from 17.8% in 1H24 to 39.6% in 2H24, driven by robust demand for medical AI services [1][2]. - The company improved its cost structure significantly, with SG&A expense ratio declining by 10.3 percentage points and R&D expense ratio falling by 10.4 percentage points, leading to a substantial narrowing of the net loss margin [1]. - Adjusted net loss narrowed by 21.4% YoY to RMB 44.8 million, with total R&D spending at RMB 296.8 million, representing 40.4% of revenue [1]. - The revenue mix improved, with hospital service revenue increasing by 103% YoY and patient service revenue rising by 57% YoY, indicating a shift towards higher contributions from both To B and To C segments [6]. - The company is well-positioned to lead the healthcare AI market, serving over 500 secondary and tertiary hospitals, including 40 of China's Top 100 hospitals [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 734 million in 2024 to RMB 1,855 million by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 37.9% from 2024 to 2026 [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve significantly, reaching RMB 120 million by 2027, with a YoY growth of 456.7% [2][10]. - The company’s net loss margin is projected to narrow from -8.10% in 2025E to 3.80% in 2027E, indicating a path towards profitability [7][11]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Xunfei Healthcare's data flywheel effect enhances its technological leadership, serving over 70,000 primary healthcare institutions and generating millions of AI-assisted diagnosis suggestions daily [6]. - The company maintains a leading position in the To G healthcare AI market, with a significant recovery in revenue from primary healthcare services in 2H24, increasing by 40% YoY [6]. - The target price for Xunfei Healthcare is set at HK$166.69, reflecting a 33.3$125.00 [3].