险资继续增配红利股

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the continued allocation of insurance capital to dividend stocks, with the average allocation ratio for FVOCI stocks reaching 2.7% in 2024, up from 1.7% in 2023 [1][2][14] - The increase in FVOCI stock allocation is driven by the need to enhance cash returns and reduce profit volatility, with a static under-allocation estimated between 500 billion to 900 billion RMB [2][28] - The average cash investment yield for listed insurance companies is projected to decline to 3.4% in 2024, approaching the rigid cost of liabilities, which is around 3% [4][42][46] Group 2 - The average bond allocation for listed insurance companies has increased to 60% in 2024, marking the highest level historically, as companies seek to match asset and liability durations [3][31][32] - The report indicates a significant shift towards long-term bonds, with government bonds constituting 35% of the bond portfolio, reflecting a strategy to mitigate risks associated with interest rate declines [3][32] - The allocation to non-standard assets and deposits has been decreasing, attributed to insufficient supply and an unfavorable risk-return profile [3][31] Group 3 - Capital gains are expected to perform strongly in 2024, with an estimated average comprehensive investment return of 5.7%, significantly higher than 2.8% in 2023, driven by a rebound in the stock market [5][54] - The report highlights that the average total investment return for listed insurance companies is projected to improve to 5.1% in 2024, up from 2.6% in 2023, indicating a robust recovery in investment performance [5][54] - The report notes that the contribution of capital gains to investment returns has historically averaged around 69 basis points annually from 2004 to 2024, underscoring the importance of cash returns as a stabilizing factor [5][30]