如何从全产业链库存角度评估锂价反弹空间？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium market remains in an oversupply situation in 2025, with the cost support shifting downwards. The lithium price is expected to oscillate at the bottom throughout the year, with an annual price range of 65,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, there are no significant fundamental contradictions. It is recommended to short on rallies for the main contract, with an expected operating range of 65,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between LC2507 - LC2508 [51]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 25Q1 Market Review - In January, both the price and basis of lithium carbonate strengthened, as the off - season demand resilience exceeded expectations. After the Spring Festival, the lithium price oscillated and declined. In February, the unexpected resumption of production at Jianxiaowo and the unexpected shipment from Chile led to an oversupply in the salt market, causing the first wave of price decline. In March, the marginal loosening of the ore price since the middle of the month led to the falsification of the cost - support logic and a further decline in the futures price [7]. Resource - End New Project Progress - In 25Q1, new projects at the resource end progressed smoothly. Projects such as Goulamina, Kamativi Phase II, and Bougouni continued to increase production, and Dahongliutan produced qualified lithium concentrate. Jianxiaowo resumed production in February, and the expected supply increment at the resource end in 2025 was revised upwards to 290,000 tons LCE [8]. Inventory Situation - The inventory levels of domestic and overseas ore ends are still moderately high. Australian ore started to accumulate inventory from 24Q4, and by the end of March, the finished - product inventory of Australian ore may have increased to over two months. There is doubt about the ore end's ability to maintain high prices. China may still have about four months of lithium ore inventory, which restricts the price rebound space [11][13]. Lithium Salt Production and Import - With abundant raw material inventory at the ore end and excess lithium - salt conversion capacity, the output rhythm of domestic lithium carbonate mainly depends on profit changes caused by price fluctuations. The continuous inversion of the carbon - hydrogen price difference has led to an increase in the effective production capacity of lithium carbonate. In terms of lithium - salt imports, the shipment data from Chile and Argentina are more leading. From January to February, the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile to China reached 31,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20%, and the shipment volume of lithium sulfate was 6,200 tons LCE, a year - on - year increase of 660%. The shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Argentina to China was 14,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113%. The import impact may be mainly realized in March [14][17]. Downstream Market Conditions - The power market continues to be booming. In 2025, the benchmark expectation for the power market is a year - on - year growth of 20 - 25%. In the Chinese market, the continuation of the trade - in policy and the popularization of intelligent driving in mid - and low - end models have led to a high year - on - year increase in terminal production and sales, and the weekly penetration rate has rebounded above 50%. In the European and American markets, the cumulative year - on - year increase in new - energy vehicle registrations in Europe is 21%, while the US demand is affected by tariff and subsidy policies. The uncertainty in the energy - storage market has increased marginally. The benchmark expectation for the energy - storage market in 2025 is a year - on - year growth of 40 - 50%. The cancellation of mandatory energy - storage allocation in China may bring uncertainty to short - term demand, and the growth rate of US demand may gradually decline [26][29]. Market Balance and Cost Support - The static balance of the lithium market remains in an oversupply situation, and the cost support has shifted downwards year - on - year. In 2025, the cost support for lithium resources has shifted down to 65,000 yuan/ton (tax - included cash cost). The marginal production capacity has moved to the left, low - cost projects have joined the supply, and various projects have actively reduced costs during the downward period [35][39]. Short - Term Inventory Differentiation - Since February, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has continued to accumulate, while the exchange's explicit warehouse receipts have continued to decline. Under the dual - price system, the basis quotation is lower than the long - term contract price after the futures price decline, supporting the continuous strengthening of the basis. Under the high basis, it is more cost - effective for downstream buyers to take delivery, corresponding to the cancellation and out - of - warehouse of warehouse receipts. At the same time, the lack of delivery profit has also led to a slow registration speed of warehouse receipts [40][47]. LC Monthly Spread Review - Since the first delivery, LC has continuously maintained a C - structure to cover the holding costs (funds and warehousing). The regular monthly spread basically corresponds to the full - carry cost, and monthly - spread arbitrage opportunities mainly exist in the warehouse - receipt cancellation month and subsequent contracts. For different contract pairs, the spread trends are affected by factors such as the willingness to take delivery of warehouse receipts, speculative long - position liquidation, and downstream delivery purchases [50]. Second - Quarter Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The operating range of the main contract in the second quarter may be between 65,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and it is more recommended to short on rallies. Arbitrage: It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunity between LC2507 - LC2508 [51].