申银万国期货早间策略-2025-03-31

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The A-share market in April may show a volatile and differentiated trend, entering the "April Decision" stage. High-quality companies are more likely to achieve excess returns, and the market will shift from previous valuation-driven to fundamental pricing. It is recommended to take a short-term wait-and-see approach for stock index futures and focus on buying options for stock index options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with declines of -21.80, -21.40, -21.40, and -18.40 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. The trading volumes were 39,177.00, 1,997.00, 51,648.00, and 8,815.00, and the open interest changes were -1,177.00, 555.00, -4,065.00, and -1,101.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with declines of -13.40, -13.20, -13.40, and -11.60 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. The trading volumes were 17,200.00, 1,704.00, 25,280.00, and 4,058.00, and the open interest changes were -3,990.00, 213.00, -4,644.00, and -342.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased, with declines of -55.00, -57.40, -53.20, and -51.00 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. The trading volumes were 44,969.00, 3,396.00, 33,059.00, and 7,347.00, and the open interest changes were -5,900.00, -48.00, -2,876.00, and -518.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines of -71.20, -65.00, -69.60, and -64.20 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. The trading volumes were 80,638.00, 5,364.00, 136,714.00, and 16,884.00, and the open interest changes were -11,708.00, 1,547.00, -8,195.00, and -1,188.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of the inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were -3.40, 2.60, -38.80, and -50.60 respectively, compared to the previous values of -3.20, 0.40, -40.60, and -58.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index decreased, with declines of -0.67%, -0.57%, -0.58%, and -0.79% respectively. The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index also decreased, with declines of -0.65%, -1.80%, -1.97%, and -0.96% respectively [1] - Sector Indexes: Among the sectors of the CSI 300, the energy sector had a decline of -1.28%, the raw materials sector had a decline of -0.18%, the industrial sector had a decline of -0.53%, the optional consumption sector had a decline of -0.54%, the primary consumption sector had a decline of -0.49%, the healthcare sector had a decline of -0.43%, the real estate and finance sector had a decline of -0.23%, the information technology sector had a decline of -0.85%, the telecommunications business sector had a decline of -0.08%, and the utilities sector had an increase of 0.19% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts against the CSI 300 were -6.37, -9.77, -31.17, and -78.17 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of -3.01, -6.21, -27.81, and -77.41 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts against the SSE 50 were 0.86, 3.46, -2.14, and -34.74 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of 2.76, 3.16, -0.24, and -34.24 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts against the CSI 500 were -46.43, -85.23, -149.23, and -277.83 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of -35.40, -76.00, -138.60, and -268.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts against the CSI 1000 were -55.72, -106.32, -189.92, and -353.32 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of -47.37, -105.57, -185.37, and -351.57 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all declined, with declines of -0.67%, -0.57%, -0.58%, and -0.79% respectively [1] - Overseas Indexes: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index all declined, with declines of -0.65%, -1.80%, -1.97%, and -0.96% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - Banking Sector: The Ministry of Finance will invest 500 billion yuan in four major banks (Bank of Communications, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Postal Savings Bank of China) through strategic investment. After the issuance, the Ministry of Finance will become the controlling shareholder of the Bank of Communications. The interest rates of bank consumer loans may increase starting from April [2] - Policy and Events: China plans to build high - standard farmland by 2030 and 2035. The 13th China - Japan - South Korea Economic and Trade Ministers' Meeting was held in Seoul, South Korea [2] 3.6 Industry Information - New Energy Vehicles: The substitution effect of new energy vehicles on fuel vehicles was about 98% last year. This year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 17 million, and the market share of domestic new energy passenger vehicles will approach 58%. In 2025, China's automobile sales are expected to increase by 3% - 4% [2] - Artificial Intelligence: The "China Association for Artificial Intelligence Embodied Intelligence White Paper" was released, and the Embodied Intelligence Professional Committee of the China Association for Artificial Intelligence was established [2] - Energy Storage: The world's first intrinsically safe semi - open energy - storage lithium - ion battery was displayed, and the company has reached cooperation intentions with South Korean and Middle Eastern partners on building overseas production lines for battery cabinet systems [2] - Tourism: As of March 28, Hong Kong has received more than 3.4 million tourists, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The financial market atmosphere in Hong Kong has been significantly improved this year [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - The U.S. three major indexes declined, and the stock indexes in the previous trading session also declined. The basic chemical sector led the decline. The total trading volume of the whole market was 1.15 trillion yuan. The margin balance on March 27 decreased by 3.224 billion yuan to 1.915185 trillion yuan. In April, listed companies will enter the intensive period of annual report disclosure, and the first - quarter reports will also be gradually announced. For the high - valuation technology sectors with large previous increases, funds may be more rational. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach for stock index futures and focus on buying options for stock index options [2]