研究局限性和风险提示 20250822申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统 计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增长；汽车产 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区 | 间波动 | | | 间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | 锌 | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。今 | 可能短期宽 | | | 年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注美 | 幅波动 | | | 国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z000236 ...

| | 欧盟与美国发表联合声明，公布了双方在7月达成新贸易协议的具体细节。根据联合声明，美国 | | --- | --- | | | 将对汽车、药品、半导体和木材等大多数欧盟输美商品征收15%的关税。欧盟承诺取消对美国产 | | | 工业品的关税，并为美国海产品和农产品提供优惠市场准入。欧盟还计划到2028年前采购7500 | | | 亿美元的美国液化天然气、石油和核能产品，另采购400亿美元的美国人工智能芯片。 | | | 美国总统特朗普炮轰可再生能源是"世纪骗局"，即使美国部分地区的电力需求已显著超过供 | | 宏 观 | 给，其政府绝不会再批准新的风电或光伏项目。特朗普将美国电价上涨归咎于可再生能源。 | | 消 | 美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值录得53.3，为2022年5月以来最高水平，远超预期的49.5。服务 | | 息 | 业PMI小幅回落至55.4，但制造业大幅回升推动综合PMI升至9个月新高的55.4。 | | | 美国上周初请失业金人数增加1.1万人至23.5万人，创6月以来新高，高于市场预期的22.5万人 | | | 。前一周续请失业金人数升至197万人，为2021年11月以来的最高水 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.326 | 102.348 | 105.500 | 105.450 | 108.000 | 107.875 | 116.57 | 116.11 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.326 | 102.322 | 105.425 | 105.370 | 107.855 | 107.730 | 116.05 | 115.54 | | | 涨跌 | 0.000 | 0.026 | 0.075 | 0.080 | 0.145 | 0.145 | 0.520 | 0.570 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.00% | 0. ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed weak fluctuations. Pro farmer field surveys indicated good growth of US soybeans, strengthening expectations of high yields for the new season. However, due to the significant reduction of US soybean planting area in the August supply - demand report, there is strong support at the bottom. Dalian meal will mainly fluctuate in a short - term range, and its price is expected to remain firm under the support of import costs [2] - Oils: Night trading of oils closed up. High - frequency data showed an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and exports in August. The sharp increase in August exports boosted palm oil prices. Concerns about Indonesia's inability to meet production recovery expectations and the strict implementation of Indonesia's DMO policy also provided support. But there is a risk of a short - term decline due to US biodiesel news and profit - taking [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Domestic Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8394 for soybean oil, 9500 for palm oil, 9791 for rapeseed oil, 3113 for soybean meal, 2610 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were - 20, - 54, - 37, - 47, - 57, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.24%, - 0.57%, - 3.15%, - 1.49%, - 2.14%, and 0.29% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc., and ratios like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, etc., showed different values compared to the previous values [1] International Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4423 for BMD palm oil, 1036 for CBOT soybeans, 51 for CBOT US soybean oil, and 297 for CBOT US soybean meal. The price changes were - 25, 20, 2, and - 3 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.56%, 1.88%, 4.59%, and - 1.08% [1] Spot Market Domestic Spot - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions showed different percentage changes. For example, the prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8570 and 8690 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.12% and 0.12% [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads between different products, such as the basis of various oils and meals and the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, showed different values compared to the previous values [1] Import and Profit - Import profits of different sources of soybeans, palm oil, and rapeseed showed different values compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil was - 283, compared to - 242 previously [1] Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts showed different values compared to the previous values. For example, the warehouse receipt of soybean oil was 15,310, the same as the previous value [1] Industry Information - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons at the end of June, despite increased production and accelerated exports. Exports in June reached 3.61 million tons, a sharp increase of 35.4% month - on - month [2] - From August 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.3% month - on - month [2]

申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合 ...

报告日期：2025 年 8 月 22 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评："万亿用电+万亿成交"双破纪录背后的中国经济新韧性 近期，A 股市场主要指数持续走强，沪深两市成交额频频突破 2 万亿元，两融 余额亦保持在历史高位。数据显示，截至 8 月 21 日收盘，上证指数、深证成 指、创业板指年内分别上涨 12.51%、14.45%、21.19%。8 月 21 日，国家能源局 发布 7 月份全社会用电量等数据。7 月份，全社会用电量 10226 亿千瓦时，同 比增长 8.6%，比十年前翻了一番，相当于东盟国家全年的用电量。日前，国家 外汇管理局决定，在上海、北京、天津、河北、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、山 东、湖北、广东、四川、宁波、厦门、青岛、深圳等 16 省市开展绿色外债业务 试点，鼓励非金融企业将跨境融资资金用于绿色或低碳转型项目。中国外贸保 持稳中有进态势，累计进出口增速逐月回升，前 7 个月实现 3.5%的增长，量质 齐升，十分不易。此前海关总署发布的数据显示，今年前 7 个月我国货物贸易 进出口总值 25.7 万亿元，同比增长 3.5%。其中，7 月当月，进出口总值 3.91 万亿元，同比增长 6.7%。 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to the combination of low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output, stable - to - positive downstream demand in some sectors like power and automotive, and weak real estate. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and improved concentrate supply this year, smelting supply may resume. Domestic automotive and infrastructure sectors show positive or stable growth, while home appliance output growth slows and real estate remains weak. Monitor US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance production [2]. Summary by Category Price Performance - Copper had a night - session price increase, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 78,640 yuan/ton, a LME 3 - month closing price of 9,721 dollars/ton, and a LME spot - to - 3 - month spread of - 90.75 dollars/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,150 tons [2]. - Aluminum's domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,570 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,577 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 2.28 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 479,525 tons [2]. - Zinc's night - session price rose. Its domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,285 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,786 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 9.33 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,650 tons to 72,200 tons [2]. - Nickel's domestic previous - day futures closing price was 119,930 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 15,008 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 195.01 dollars/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,086 tons to 209,328 tons [2]. - Lead's domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,725 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 1,982 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 39.48 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 22,475 tons to 282,950 tons [2]. - Tin's domestic previous - day futures closing price was 267,840 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 33,775 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was 32.00 dollars/ton. LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons to 1,630 tons [2]. Market Conditions - For copper, domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry maintaining positive growth, automotive production and sales growing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak [2]. - For zinc, domestic automotive production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. Concentrate supply has improved significantly this year, and smelting supply may recover [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On August 20, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net daily injection of 497.5 billion yuan. The new - period LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The central bank's monetary policy continues the loose thinking, which supports short - term Treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect will continue, and bond prices may continue to weaken. The cross - variety spread may also widen due to the resumption of VAT collection on government and financial bonds [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.19%, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally increased. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 1.7bp, DR007 rate rose 1.94bp, and GC007 rate rose 2.5bp [2] Spot Market - On the previous trading day, the yields of key - term Chinese Treasury bonds varied. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 1.7bp to 1.79%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 35.86bp [2] Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10Y US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield decreased by 4bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield increased by 1.4bp [2] Macroeconomic News - The central bank carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations, and the new - period LPR remained unchanged. The People's Bank of China Shanghai Head Office put forward work requirements. The State Council Office forwarded the guidance on standardizing PPP projects. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and the UK's inflation accelerated [3] Industry Information - On August 20, most money - market interest rates increased. US Treasury bond yields mostly declined. The bond market was affected by multiple factors such as macro - news, economic data, and central bank operations [3]

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/8/21 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8414 | 9554 | 9828 | 3160 | 2667 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -112 | -86 | -22 | -1 | -11 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -1.31% | -0.89% | -3.15% | -0.03% | -0.41% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy combination punches from the frontier to industries, from banks to the stock market, are gradually advancing, aiming to stabilize growth, promote transformation, and boost confidence, adding certainty to the full - year economic recovery [1]. - The current domestic market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the probability of the market trend continuing is high, but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][11]. - The overall situation of gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts rises [3][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - Regional cooperation is further strengthened, and the financial toolbox is expanding. The capital market sentiment is warming up, and the policy combination is promoting economic recovery [1]. 2. Key Varieties Index Futures - The US three major indices mainly declined. The domestic market had a late - afternoon rally, with the beauty care sector leading the rise and the pharmaceutical and biological sector falling. The market turnover was 2.45 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased. In 2025, domestic liquidity will remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. External risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SHS 300 are more defensive [2][11]. Precious Metals - Last week's unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver. Positive signals from US - Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The employment market's weakness supported precious metal prices. The Fed's internal views are divided, and the long - term drivers of gold still provide support. Gold and silver may fluctuate as the interest - rate cut expectation rises [3][19]. Crude Oil - SC night trading rose 0.95%. There was a multi - party meeting on the Ukraine issue. India's state - owned refiner continued to buy Russian crude oil. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Future OPEC production increases should be monitored [4][5][13]. 3. Main News on the Day International News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most thought the risk of rising inflation was higher than that of falling employment [6]. Domestic News - China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above was 3.5%. This was in line with expectations as the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, the basis for LPR pricing, did not change [7]. Industry News - The State Council General Office forwarded a Ministry of Finance document, stating that existing PPP projects should be promoted in a classified and hierarchical manner, with priority given to projects with certain returns [8]. 4. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the daily return data of various overseas market varieties on August 19 and 20, including the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and others, showing their price changes and percentage changes [9]. 5. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Index Futures**: Similar to the key varieties section, the market is in a favorable position, and different indices have different characteristics [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally fell. The central bank's open - market operations, LPR stability, and US economic data all had an impact. The bond market may continue to be weak due to factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect and tax policies [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Similar to the key varieties section, pay attention to international events and inventory changes, as well as future OPEC production [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night trading rose. The domestic methanol device's operating load decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. It is expected to be bullish in the short term [14][15]. - **Rubber**: The price is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend may continue to decline [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures closed up. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand, with inventory slowly being digested. Pay attention to the autumn stocking market [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures mainly fell. The supply is shrinking, but inventory is rising. Focus on the fundamental repair process [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the key varieties section, gold and silver may fluctuate as the interest - rate cut expectation rises [19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The concentrate processing fee is low, and downstream demand is mixed. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The concentrate processing fee is rising, and supply may recover. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is volatile. Supply is increasing, demand is also growing, and inventory changes are complex. There is a risk of correction, but there may be room for price increases if inventory decreases [23]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand is supported by strong steel production. Global iron ore shipments have decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance is a concern. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: Steel supply pressure is emerging, but inventory is decreasing. Exports are facing challenges, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - trading of coking coal and coke was volatile. The steel demand is in the off - season, and the coking coal market is in a multi - empty game with a wide - range volatile trend [26][27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fell at night. The good growth of US soybeans weakened the US soybean futures price, but the import cost supports the domestic market [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oil rose at night, while rapeseed oil was weak. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and concerns about Indonesia's production support palm oil prices, but there is a risk of decline due to US biodiesel news [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar is entering the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales rates and low inventories but may be dragged down by processed sugar. Both are expected to be volatile [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton fell. The domestic cotton supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract fell. The shipping rate is decreasing, and the market is expected to be volatile, with the shipping rate expected to slow down in early September [32][33].