1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the investment rating possibilities for various varieties, including "cautiously bearish" and "cautiously bullish" assessments [6]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes multiple key financial and commodity markets, including precious metals, crude oil, and stock indices. It suggests that the long - term upward trend of gold remains intact despite recent volatility. The stock market is expected to continue its short - term positive trend in February, but potential risks from overseas markets during the Spring Festival need to be watched. For other markets, it provides detailed analyses of supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors [2][4][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Focus - **International News**: The European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, pausing rate cuts for the fifth consecutive time since June last year. It did not signal the next policy direction, strengthening the market's expectation of a stable monetary policy. Officials are monitoring the impact of the euro's appreciation on export competitiveness and inflation [7]. - **Domestic News**: Eight departments jointly issued an implementation plan for the high - quality development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, aiming to achieve certain goals by 2030, such as cultivating high - standard raw material bases and new large - scale Chinese patent medicines [8]. - **Industry News**: In January, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, indicating an expansion of logistics business, with key sub - indices in the expansion range [9]. 3.2 Daily Earnings of Overseas Markets - The report presents the daily earnings of various overseas market indices and commodities on February 4th and 5th, including the S&P 500, European STOXX50, and others. Most showed declines, except for the US dollar index and some commodities like CBOT soybeans [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Indices**: US stock indices declined. The A - share market also fell, with the beauty and care sector leading the gain and the non - ferrous metal sector leading the loss. The stock market's positive trend since 2026 is due to multiple factors. It is expected to continue its short - term positive trend in February, but potential risks from overseas markets during the Spring Festival need attention [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling. The central bank's open - market operations and the expected "rate - cut and balance - sheet reduction" policy in the US, along with domestic economic data, have influenced the Treasury bond market [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.73% at night. The US and Iran plan to hold nuclear - issue talks, but reaching an agreement is considered difficult. The strengthening US dollar and volatile precious metal prices have negatively affected the commodity market [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.46%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, as did the overall methanol plant operating rate. Coastal methanol inventories decreased slightly but were still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber futures declined. With domestic and some overseas production areas in different production states, and the inventory in Qingdao increasing, the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures mainly declined, with the market focusing on supply improvement expectations and macro - factors. The falling oil price also contributed to the cooling of the polyolefin market [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures mainly declined. Glass production enterprise inventories increased slightly, and soda ash inventories also rose. The supply - demand situation is gradually adjusting, and the future market depends on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [18][19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals fluctuated at night. Recent volatility was mainly due to the nomination of the Fed chair and capital stampede. In the long run, gold is expected to resume its upward trend, while investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.15% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and downstream demand is mixed. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.84% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and downstream demand is also mixed. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [22]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fell 0.23% at night. Short - term spot - level upward drivers are limited, but long - term factors such as low inventory and stable demand provide support [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate main contract touched the daily limit down and then slightly recovered. The market has high attention, and downstream buyers are cautious. Supply and demand factors are complex, and a cautious short - selling view is maintained [24][25]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke main contracts fluctuated at night. Steel production and demand are in a seasonal off - peak, but import disruptions and pre - holiday restocking provide support [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. The macro - environment is improving, and raw - material costs provide support. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Shipping volumes and port inventories have changed, and steel mills will continue to purchase on - demand [28]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meals**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and rose at night. Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, and the US - China soybean purchase plan affects the market. Domestic high inventories and sufficient supply expectations pressure prices [29]. - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oils were weak, while rapeseed oil rose slightly. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong and production is falling, but market supply expectations affect prices [30][31]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated and were slightly stronger. With a seasonal supply increase and import pressure, prices are expected to remain low in the short term [32]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton futures maintained a volatile trend. With approaching Spring Festival, the market has a certain demand support, but import factors may limit price increases [33]. - **Hogs**: The hog market continued to be weak and volatile, with regional differences. The market is in a "price - decline and reluctance - to - sell" game, and pre - holiday prices are expected to adjust [34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose 3.86%. Pre - holiday spot freight rates are expected to decline. The market has a large discount, and future price trends depend on factors such as the pre - April 1st export rush and shipping company price increases [35].

原油：SC夜盘下跌0.73%。美伊计划于6日在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行核问题谈判。2025年， 在阿曼斡旋下，中东某国和美国举行多轮间接谈判，但核心分歧难解。新华社援引以色列 《新消息报》5日报道说，美国已要求以色列在美伊会谈期间"避免采取单方面军事行动 "。报道还援引以色列官员的话说，以方认为美伊双方存在根本分歧，达成协议的可能性 "微乎其微"。美元走强以及贵金属价格波动剧烈，也对大宗商品市场及整体风险情绪产 生了负面影响。周四美元指数连续第二天上涨，盘中一度触及1月23日以来最高，纽约交 易时段尾盘报97.85，上涨0.18%。 甲醇：甲醇下跌1.46%。国内煤（甲醇）制烯烃装置平均开工负荷在80.61%，环比上升 0.55个百分点。本周期内，受部分东部MTO装置开车、提负影响，导致国内CTO/MTO开工整 体上升。截止2月5日，国内甲醇整体装置开工负荷为78.32%，环比提升0.76个百分点，较 去年同期提升2.12个百分点。截至2月5日，沿海地区（江苏、浙江和华南地区）甲醇库存 在139.5万吨（目前沿海甲醇库存处于历史中高位置），相比1月29日下降3.5万吨，降幅 为2.45%，同比上升35.37%，整 ...

申万期货品种策略日报-天胶 申银万国期货研究所 倪梦雪 （从业编号F0264569 投资咨询号Z0002226） | | nimx@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586042 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 价差 | | | | | | | | | | RU-BR NR-BR | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 16175 | 13135 | 12925 | 现值 | 3040 | 3250 | 210 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 16385 | 13300 | 13360 | 前值 | 3085 | 3025 | -60 | | 市 | 涨跌 | -210 | -165 | -435 | 涨跌 | -45 | 225 | 270 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 | -1.28% | -1.24% | -3.26% | | | 基差 | | | | 成交量 | 283333 | 62662 | 112386 | ...

集运欧线数据日报 2026/2/6 最新观点 集运欧线：EC上涨3.86%。节前现货运价仍将延续下行为主，2月第三周大柜均价降至2080美元左右，测算下来 目前市场仍有200点左右的贴水，深贴水和强预期下现实层面可博弈的空间相对较小，更多还是集中于预期层 面的博弈。近期和商品市场情绪相关性较高，关注下商品情绪对EC的日内影响。预期层面比较主要的事件是4 月1日前光伏等产品的抢出口，结合去年8月9月光伏抢出口的测算来看，可带来大概2艘18000-23000TEU的集装 箱船货量，对于节后淡季来说较难带来爆舱，但更多可能会带来船司的表价提涨和运价的企稳甚至小幅上行， 为市场带来现实层面的驱动，重点关注后续船司涨价函的公布情况可能带来的预期证伪。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20 ...

本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 20260206申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨0.15%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。铜价短期可能进入调整阶段。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和 | | | 下游需求等变化。 | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨0.84%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 | | 锌 | 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电排 产负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌价可能跟随有色整体走势。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游 | | | 需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合 ...

免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨 投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信息 不得用于未经允许的其他任何用途 如因投资者将本报告所提供的信息、 ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 2026/2/6 星期五 | | | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | IF当月 IF下月 IF下季 | IF隔季 | | 前两日收盘价 4698.80 4693.60 4665.00 | 4611.00 | | 前日收盘价 4671.60 4665.20 4636.00 | 4585.20 | | 涨跌 -16.40 -16.40 -18.40 沪深300 | -16.40 | | 涨跌幅 -0.35 -0.35 -0.40 | -0.36 | | 成交量 19234.00 70168.00 19105.00 | 7389.00 | | 持仓量 30891.00 161588.00 75279.00 | 29451.00 ...

2026年02月06日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 540.30 | 536.90 | 531.40 | 442.70 | 435.65 | 424.30 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 599.85 | 592.00 | 585.70 | 461.00 | 456.75 | 450.60 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -46.75 | -39.10 | -42.70 | -8.90 | -11.00 | -18.05 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | -7.96% | -6.79% | -7.44% | -1.97% | -2.46% | -4.08% ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.434 | 102.460 | 105.910 | 105.940 | 108.320 | 108.325 | 112.17 | 112.31 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.398 | 102.424 | 105.850 | 105.895 | 108.240 | 108.240 | 111.7 | 111.78 | | | 涨跌 | 0.036 | 0.036 | 0.060 | 0.045 | 0.080 | 0.085 | 0.470 | 0.530 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.04% | 0.0 ...