聚烯烃：供需双缩，聚烯烃或将震荡调整运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The cost - end oil price will oscillate in a range, providing limited support. Supply may contract slightly during the maintenance season, but new device startups could offset some losses. Demand is likely to improve slightly first and then weaken seasonally. Overall, polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate around the current level. The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade in the range of 7400 - 8500 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract in the range of 6800 - 7800 yuan/ton [78] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Polyolefin Market: In Q1, polyolefin prices showed different fluctuations with a downward - moving center. In January, prices declined due to new device startups and weakening demand. In February, PE prices rose slightly while PP prices remained weak. In March, prices continued to fall due to oil price adjustments and manufacturers' price - cutting [7] - Cost - end (Crude Oil): Oil prices first rose and then fell in Q1. Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to oscillate around the current level, with geopolitical and supply factors being the main concerns [10] 2. Supply Analysis - Capacity and New Device Plans: By the end of 2024, PE capacity was 34.2 million tons, up 9.26% year - on - year, and PP capacity was 43.82 million tons, up 12.68% year - on - year. In 2025, multiple new PE and PP devices are planned to start production [13][14][15] - Device Profits: Coal - based polyolefin device profits are acceptable, while other processes perform poorly [16] - Device Maintenance: In 2025, PE and PP entered the maintenance season, with increasing maintenance losses. In Q2, supply is expected to contract slightly, but new device startups may offset some losses [18][20][23][26] - Imports and Exports: In February 2025, PE imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports decreased year - on - year. PP imports and exports both increased month - on - month and year - on - year [29][31] - Inventory: As of March 28, the inventory of major producers decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [33] 3. Demand Analysis - PE Demand: In Q1, PE demand was weak first and then recovered. In Q2, it is expected to continue to improve first and then weaken [44] - PP Demand: In Q1, PP demand was weak first and then recovered. In Q2, it is expected to rise first and then fall, with potential pressure from tariffs [48] - Policy Impact: The "Two New" policies in 2025 expand subsidy scope and intensity, which is beneficial to terminal consumption demand and stimulates the consumption of plastic products [52][53] 4. Arbitrage and Technical Analysis - Cross - variety Arbitrage: In Q1, the L/PP spread fluctuated in an inverted "N" shape. In Q2, there may be structural spread arbitrage opportunities, with an expected fluctuation range of 300 - 600 yuan/ton [67] - Technical Indicators: The weekly K - line of PE is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7400 - 8500 yuan/ton, and the PP weekly K - line has reached the lower limit of the oscillation range, with support levels at 7200 yuan/ton and 6800 yuan/ton [69][72] 5. Seasonal Analysis - LLDPE Seasonal Trend: Historically, LLDPE has a higher probability of rising in January, June, July, September, and December, and a higher probability of falling in February, March, May, August, October, and November [74] - PP Seasonal Trend: Statistically, the PP main contract has a higher probability of rising in January, April, June, July, and September, and a higher probability of falling in February, March, May, August, and October [75] 6. Supply - Demand Gap Analysis - The document provides historical and expected supply - demand gap data for PE and PP from 2017 to 2025 [76][77] 7. Outlook - Supply: Supply is expected to contract slightly during the maintenance season, but new device startups may offset some losses [78] - Demand: Demand is expected to improve slightly first and then weaken seasonally [78] - Cost: Oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range, with geopolitical and supply factors being the main concerns [78] - Price: Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate around the current level, with the LLDPE main contract in the range of 7400 - 8500 yuan/ton and the PP main contract in the range of 6800 - 7800 yuan/ton [78]