农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：油脂供应充足，豆油价格继续低开低走。主要原因在于市场 尚未证实的消息称可能会有600万吨大豆抛储并进口美豆轮换（消 息尚未证实）。中美、中加贸易关系依旧严峻，市场对于四季度油 籽供应存在担忧。目前豆油市场处于"弱现实+强预期"格局，弱 现实主要表现为 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年08月21日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 有色板块集体小幅反弹，建议暂时观望或少量逢高加空，09合约上 方压力区间21000-21200，下方支撑区间20000-20200，可买入 虚值看跌期权做保护。氧化铝现货价格小幅下跌，在产产能增加， 消息影响发酵过后盘面回落，建议逢高可适量 ...

期货研究院 新能源产业链日度策略 New Energy Industry Chain daily Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年08月20日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 据SMM，周三SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格85752元/吨，环比上一 工作日下跌189元/吨；电池级碳酸锂8.44-8.7万元/吨，均价8.57 万元/吨，与上一工作日持平；工业级碳酸锂8.28-8.4万元/吨，均 价8.34万元/吨，与上一工作日持平。据SMM，供应方面，上周碳 酸锂产量19980吨，较前一周增加424吨;其 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. Short - term callback space is limited, and it is bullish in the long - term. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - The rapeseed oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to trade policy changes and sufficient inventory [3]. - The palm oil price has a short - term adjustment demand due to factors such as price comparison pressure and potential production impacts in Indonesia [4]. - The soybean meal is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation, and the price is expected to be bullish in the long - term [3][4]. - The corn and corn starch prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [5]. - The soybean price is affected by new supply and market sentiment, with a short - term bearish outlook [6]. - The peanut price is under pressure due to expected increased production and lower costs, with a short - term bearish outlook [6]. - The live pig price is affected by policies and supply - demand, with a short - term fluctuating rebound and a long - term focus on capacity reduction [7]. - The egg price is at a low level, and the market expects terminal consumption improvement to drive a price rebound [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean 11, Soybean 2 09 | Tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations; new domestic soybeans are on the market, supply increases | 3900 - 3930, 3640 - 3670 | 4145 - 4150, 3950 - 4000 | Fluctuation, Fluctuation adjustment | Light - position short - selling, Temporary observation | | | Peanut 11 | Expected production increase and cost reduction | 7500 - 7600 | 8100 - 8162 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Potential reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, sufficient inventory in the short - term, long - term positive outlook | 8230 - 8300 | 8800 - 9000 | Fluctuation adjustment | Temporary observation | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Short - term supply increase | 9600 - 9610 | 10300 - 10343 | Fluctuation adjustment | Temporary observation | | | Palm 01 | Good export demand from the origin, concerns about Indonesian production | 9060 - 9074 | 9900 - 9990 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Reduce long positions | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | Tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations, expected reduction in soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter | 2950 - 2980 | 3200 - 3250 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Light - position long - buying | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Potential reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, weak consumption | 2500 - 2523 | 2698 - 2708 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Hold long positions | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Continuous release of imported corn, stable new - season expectations | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | Weak corn price, relatively loose spot market | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Live pig 11 | Feed price rebound, strong expectation of capacity reduction | 13500 - 13750, 14500 - 15000 | | Fluctuation rebound | Hold long positions | | | Egg 10 | Capacity pressure + consumption peak season expectation | 3000 - 3050 | 3300 - 3350 | Fluctuation to find the bottom | Observation | [11] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - delivery arbitrage, most varieties suggest waiting and seeing, while the soybean meal 3 - 5 spread recommends a positive spread operation with a target of 300 - 400. The live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 spreads suggest positive spreads at low prices [12][13]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, the 09 soybean oil - palm oil spread suggests short - biased operations, the 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread suggests long - biased operations, and the 09 soybean oil - meal ratio recommends long - buying operations [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in the feed, livestock, and oil sectors [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oils from different origins and different shipping dates [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: Presents the inventory and operation rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oils, and peanuts [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: Lists the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Displays the consumption, inventory, and operation rates of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Pig**: Provides daily and weekly data on live pig prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, etc. [20][22][23]. - **Egg**: Offers daily and weekly data on egg prices, production rates, inventory, and related prices [21][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Pigs and Eggs)**: Includes charts of main contract closing prices, spot prices, and other relevant data of live pigs and eggs [25][28][29][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: Covers charts of Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, and domestic palm oil inventory, trading volume, etc. [37][40][44]. - **Soybean Oil**: Contains charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operation rates, inventory, etc. [47][48]. - **Peanut**: Shows charts of domestic peanut arrival, shipment, processing profits, and inventory [51][52]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: Has charts of corn closing prices, spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profits [55][56]. - **Corn Starch**: Includes charts of corn starch closing prices, spot prices, operation rates, inventory, and processing profits [58][59]. - **Rapeseed**: Displays charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profits [60][63][65]. - **Soybean Meal**: Presents charts of US soybean growth rates, soybean and soybean meal inventory [67]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatility and trading volume of options for various varieties [69][70]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situations of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities for various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, live pig, and egg [72][73][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar** - The import of sugar syrups and premixes in China increased month - on - month in July but decreased year - on - year, with the gap narrowing. The main import items have shifted, and the import volume under the 2106.906 item has hit new highs. - Due to factors such as reduced syrup imports and slow sugar imports in the first half of the year, although domestic sugar production increased in the 2024/25 season, the supply and demand of domestic sugar were strong, and enterprise inventory pressure was not significant. - Since the third quarter, the import of overseas raw sugar has accelerated, increasing the pressure on the supply side from processed sugar, and the import of syrups and premixes has also rebounded. However, concerns about the new Brazilian sugar season have supported the prices of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3][4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp** - The spot pulp market has been weak recently, but the price of hardwood pulp has remained stable. Overseas pulp mill production cuts have provided some support, but the prices of downstream finished paper products have remained low. - The shipment volume of softwood pulp in June increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The shipment volume of hardwood pulp remained at a high level, and exports to China were still strong. There have been some news of hardwood pulp production cuts, but the short - term impact is limited. - The pulp and paper industry lacks policy support, demand improvement is limited, and the supply pressure of hardwood pulp remains. However, the price of softwood pulp is below the cost of mainstream countries, and the price of hardwood pulp is close to the marginal cost, so the overall valuation is not high, which may support prices to some extent [5]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton** - In the international market, there is a multi - empty game. The steady listing of cotton in South America and Australia and the US tariff policy have put pressure on the market, but factors such as the decline in the US planting area, the slow progress of Indian cotton planting, and the temporary cancellation of Indian import tariffs have provided potential support. The new - season global cotton has changed from a slight inventory increase last month to a slight inventory decrease, narrowing the downward space for prices. - In the domestic market, there is a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The extension of Sino - US tariffs has provided some support, but the suppression on the consumption side still exists, limiting the upward space for prices [6]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Apple** - The current focus is on the end of the old - season apples and the realization of the new - season production. The end of the old - season is in line with expectations, and there are some differences in the preliminary production estimates of the new - season, but the range is limited. The opening prices of early - maturing apples have increased year - on - year, providing some support to the market, but the sustainability needs to be monitored. The price of the Apple 10 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Jujube** - On Wednesday, the agricultural product index fluctuated weakly, and the jujube futures price opened low and closed high. The price of the Jujube 2601 contract broke through the previous high and then fluctuated. Driven by the continuous reduction of spot inventory, the price of the 2509 contract also rose sharply, and the premium of futures over spot warehouse receipts increased. - In August, the inventory of jujubes decreased at an accelerated pace, the enthusiasm of terminal replenishment improved, and the dried fruit consumption is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the production of new - season jujubes in August [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Futures** - Apple 2510: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The fundamental changes are limited. The performance of early - maturing apples provides some support, but the strength is limited. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 7400 - 7500 (support) and 8300 - 8400 (resistance) [16]. - Jujube 2601: Reduce long positions. The overall market sentiment is strong, and the jujube enters the production - forming period in the third quarter, which is prone to price increases due to weather concerns. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the resistance range is 11500 - 12000 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. Concerns about Brazilian sugar supply are increasing, but the import pressure has been realized, and the upward movement of the futures price is under pressure. The support range is 5550 - 5570, and the resistance range is 5730 - 5750 [16]. - Pulp 2511: Temporarily wait and see. Softwood pulp prices are below the cost of mainstream producers, and there have been production cuts in hardwood pulp, which provides some short - term support. However, the weak finished paper market limits the upward space. The support range is 5100 - 5200, and the resistance range is 5400 - 5450 [16]. - Cotton 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. There is a game between tight spot supply and weak consumption expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 13500 - 13600 (support) and 14200 - 14300 (resistance) [16]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of August 13, the inventory in apple cold storages in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,800 tons. As of August 14, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 461,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 378,000 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production, with a slight decrease estimated by Zhuochuang and a slight increase estimated by Mysteel [17]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area was stable. Storage merchants were eager to sell, while buyers were cautious. The price of early - maturing apples was stable at high levels for good - quality products, with large price differences for poor - quality products. In the sales area, the overall arrival volume increased, demand was stable, and prices remained stable [18][19]. - **Jujube Market**: As of August 15, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 72.62%. The arrival volume in the sales area increased month - on - month. Driven by the downstream replenishment demand, the spot price showed a strong trend. The market trading atmosphere improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm for high - quality products increased [20]. - **Sugar Market**: In July 2025, China imported a total of 159,800 tons of sugar syrups and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons and a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons. The import volume under the 210690 item reached 114,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of nearly 30% and a new high. As of noon, the spot market price of sugar in Guangxi was around 5950 yuan/ton, and the price in the Kunming market decreased slightly [22]. - **Pulp Market**: Although the domestic spot and futures prices of softwood pulp rebounded last week, the import price remained stable. Domestic pulp and paper integrated producers purchased a large amount of softwood and hardwood pulp, pushing up the prices of these two pulp types. Most buyers postponed their purchases of imported softwood pulp, waiting for the August quotes from major suppliers. Canadian and Nordic NBSK prices remained at 680 - 700 US dollars/ton, and Brazilian producers were seeking to increase the price of South American hardwood pulp by 20 US dollars/ton [25]. - **Cotton Market**: The cotton - picking progress in the main producing areas of Brazil continued to advance. As of August 15, the picking progress in Mato Grosso state reached 40.0%, a month - on - month increase of 13 percentage points but 17.0 percentage points behind the same period last year. As of August 19, the cumulative rainfall of the Indian southwest monsoon was 611.8, 1.8% higher than the long - term average. There was a high probability of heavy rainfall in many places. In July 2025, the export volume of cotton products increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export price decreased. The export volume and amount of cotton cloth also increased [26][27]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 decreased, while the closing price of Sugar 2601 increased [28]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of apples remained unchanged month - on - month, the prices of jujubes and sugar decreased, the price of pulp remained stable, and the price of cotton decreased slightly [32]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation, only references to relevant figures [40][41][45]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - The 10 - 1 spread of apples was 126, a week - on - week decrease of 34 and a year - on - year decrease of 2, and it is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes was - 1070, a week - on - week decrease of 1075 and a year - on - year decrease of 190, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 9 - 1 spread of sugar was 51, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 280, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton was 15, a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 30, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for all [47]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There is no specific text description of the futures positioning situation, only references to relevant figures [54][57][61]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, with no change week - on - week and year - on - year. - The number of jujube warehouse receipts was 9832, a week - on - week increase of 337 and a year - on - year increase of 477. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16244, a week - on - week decrease of 242 and a year - on - year increase of 889. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 252639, a week - on - week decrease of 1213 and a year - on - year decrease of 228502. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 7455, a week - on - week decrease of 141 and a year - on - year decrease of 2328 [76]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description of the option - related data, only references to relevant figures [78][80][81].

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年08月20日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 全球权益资产近期走势强劲，商品市场风险偏好集体上行，对沪铜 价格形成支撑。但美国PPI超预期，市场对美联储9月降息50BP的预 期下降，本周晚些时候鲍威尔将在全球央行会议上发言，市场担忧 其表态再度偏鹰，美元指数止跌反弹。美国进口精炼铜暂豁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil broke through and rose this week. The market is worried about the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter. The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract of soybean oil may continue to rise based on the 8400 level. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main 01 contract, consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed initially pushed up the price of rapeseed products. However, the import of rapeseed from other countries has alleviated supply concerns, and the price has fallen from its high. The price of palm oil provides some support, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The high - frequency data shows poor production of Malaysian palm oil. The export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15 increased by 21.3% month - on - month. The replenishment demand of importing countries supports the price. There are potential positive factors for the price, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: The price of soybean meal broke through and rose. The situation of Sino - US trade remains severe, and there is an expectation of tight supply of soybeans for oil extraction in the fourth quarter. The 09 contract of soybean meal is expected to be strong, and long positions can be held. The 09 contract of soybean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust [3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: After the change in trade policy, the price of rapeseed meal first rose and then fell. The supply can be partially supplemented by imports from other countries, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to stop falling and fluctuate [3][4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of soybean No. 1 oscillated at a low level this week. The price in the Northeast is stable, but there is a downward expectation. New soybeans in Hubei are gradually on the market, and it is recommended to try short positions with a light position [5]. - **Peanut**: The inventory of peanuts in the producing areas is low, and the import volume is small. The new - season planting area has increased, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest. It is recommended to short the 11 and 01 contracts on rebounds [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices continued to be weak this week. The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market also has supply pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously and consider option strategies such as selling wide - straddle combinations or out - of - the - money call options [7]. - **Pig**: The spot price of pigs was weakly volatile and generally stable over the weekend. Terminal consumption is expected to improve in late August. The futures price of far - month contracts rebounded after rising. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold long positions in the 2511 or 2601 contracts and buy the 2605 contract on dips [8][9]. - **Egg**: The spot price of eggs rebounded with fluctuations over the weekend. The current inventory is high, and the seasonal peak season in August needs further confirmation. It is recommended to buy the 10 or 11 contracts on dips and pay attention to the 11 - 1 spread [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 11 | Northeast soybean sentiment cools, new soybeans in Hubei are on the market, price expected to fall steadily | 3900 - 3930 | 4145 - 4150 | Oscillatory decline | Try short positions with a light position | | | Soybean No. 2 09 | Sino - US trade situation is severe, import cost rises, fewer purchases in the fourth quarter | 3640 - 3670 | 3950 - 4000 | Oscillatory strength | Temporarily wait and see | | | Peanut 11 | Low old - season inventory, increased new - season area, reduced cost | 7500 - 7600 | 8100 - 8162 | Oscillatory decline | Hold short positions | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | Fewer soybean purchases in the fourth quarter, expected tight supply in the future | 8230 - 8300 | 8880 - 9000 | Oscillatory rise | Hold long positions | | | Rapeseed Oil 01 | Fewer rapeseed purchases, increased imports from alternative countries | 9600 - 9610 | 10290 - 10333 | Oscillatory adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | | Palm Oil 01 | Good export demand in the origin, concerns about Indonesian production | 9050 - 9074 | 9990 - 9990 | Oscillatory strength | Hold long positions | | Proteins | Soybean Meal 09 | Sino - US trade situation is severe, fewer soybean purchases in the fourth quarter, good expectation | 2950 - 2980 | 3200 - 3250 | Oscillatory strength | Hold long positions | | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | Fewer rapeseed purchases, increased imports from alternative countries, weak demand | 2431 - 2460 | 2698 - 2708 | Oscillatory adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Imported corn auctions continue, new - season is under pressure, short - term price continues to seek the bottom | 2150 - 2160 | 2240 - 2250 | Oscillatory weakness | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 09 | Corn price at the cost end is under pressure, spot supply remains loose | 2590 - 2600 | 2720 - 2730 | Oscillatory weakness | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Pig 11 | Feed price stops falling and rebounds, industry has capacity - reduction policy | 13000 - 13500 | 14500 - 15000 | Oscillatory rebound | Hold long positions | | | Egg 10 | Capacity pressure + consumption peak - season expectation | 3200 - 3300 | 3600 - 3700 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Buy on dips | [12] 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis data of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [13][14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, such as the CNF price, import duty - paid price, and cost of soybean meal or rapeseed meal when the crushing profit is zero [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rate data of various oilseeds and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, peanuts, and the operating rate of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil production [16]. 3.2.2 Feed The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of deep - processing enterprises [16]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Pig**: It provides the weekly data of the pig market, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other indicators [17]. - **Egg**: It provides the weekly data of the egg market, including supply - side data (production rate, inventory, etc.), demand - side data (inventory), and profit data [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Pig and Egg)**: It includes charts of the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related data [20][21][22][23][25][26][27]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: It includes charts of the production, export, inventory, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [29][36][43]. - **Feed**: It includes charts of the prices, basis, inventory, consumption, and profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [47][55][63][69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts of the historical volatility of various varieties and the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [70][75][76]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts of the warehouse receipt quantity of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pig, and egg [81][82][83][84][89][91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector continues to oscillate. China's anti - involution in multiple industries has led to some varieties being boosted, while profit - taking in leading anti - involution sectors has caused adjustments in industrial products. The suspension of a 24% tariff for 90 days is beneficial to the industry. With China's positive policies, the overall situation of non - ferrous metals remains strong despite fluctuations [11][12]. - The market generally believes that the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in September is high. Although inflation expectations have rebounded, the Fed's decision - making independence is being questioned [12]. - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply and demand fundamentals, inventory changes, and policy impacts. Each metal has different trends and investment strategies [13][14][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro - level**: The non - ferrous metals sector continues to oscillate. China's anti - involution in industries like black metals, photovoltaics, and building materials has affected the sector. The suspension of a 24% tariff for 90 days is positive for the industry. China has introduced a series of positive policies, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September [11][12]. - **Single - product analysis**: - **Copper**: Supply and demand are both strong, with demand rising faster. Social inventory is decreasing, and production remains high. The price center is expected to rise, and short - term support is at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton, with resistance at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Zinc**: Supply increases while demand is weak. It shows a phased shock, with resistance at 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton and support at 21800 - 22000 yuan/ton. Mid - term, it can be shorted on rallies [7]. - **Aluminum and its industry chain**: Cost decreases, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. Alumina prices are slightly down, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy is under pressure [5]. - **Tin**: It shows a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to trade in the range of 250000 - 290000 yuan/ton, with high - selling and low - buying strategies [5]. - **Lead**: It is in a consolidation phase. It can be bought on dips in the short - term, with support at 16500 - 16600 yuan/ton and resistance at 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Nickel supply is in surplus, and stainless steel supply increases while demand is weak. Nickel can be shorted on rallies in the mid - term, and stainless steel can be considered long if the support level holds [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and weekly price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, such as copper closing at 79060 yuan/ton with a 0.73% increase, and zinc closing at 22505 yuan/ton with a 0.04% decrease [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, for example, the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price is 79260 yuan/ton with a 0.45% decrease, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 22440 yuan/ton with a 0.36% decrease [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Tracking of Key Data in the Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Multiple charts are used to show the changes in inventory, processing fees, prices, and other data of various non - ferrous metals, such as the exchange copper inventory change and SMM social copper inventory change [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Recommended arbitrage strategies include the positive spread between copper 2509 - 2510 contracts and the reverse spread between alumina 2502 - 2509 contracts [16]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Different option strategies are recommended for each metal, such as selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options for copper, and buying bull spreads for zinc [3][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The short - term 01 contract may continue to rise based on the 8400 position. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 contract, consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations, with support at 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and pressure at 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Under the uncertain Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy, the price once rose significantly, but the high inventory and alternative imports have weakened market concerns. It shows a wide - range shock, with support at 9500 - 9580 and pressure at 10333 - 10343 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The July Malaysian palm oil ending inventory was lower than expected, and the Indonesian inventory is low. The August production data is poor, and the export demand in early August is good. It is recommended to reduce long positions, with support at 9050 - 9074 and pressure at 9900 - 9990 [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.2**: The market is digesting the positive impact of the August USDA report. The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations are still tense. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 contract of soybean meal, with support at 2950 - 2980 yuan/ton and pressure at 3200 - 3250 yuan/ton. The 09 contract of soybean No.2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with support at 3640 - 3670 and pressure at 3950 - 4000 [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 09 contract shows a wide - range shock, with support at 2600 - 2617 and pressure at 2800 - 2823. The 01 contract is affected by the expected reduction of Canadian rapeseed imports [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The USDA report has a negative impact on the external market. The domestic market is affected by imported corn and relevant policies. It is recommended to shift short positions to far - month contracts [5]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price continues to fall due to the increasing supply of new soybeans. It is recommended to exit short positions in the main contract and wait and see [6]. - **Peanut**: The inventory of the producing areas is low, and the import is affected. The new - season planting area has increased. The 10 - contract may rebound in the short - term, and it is recommended to short the 11 and 01 contracts on rallies [6][7]. - **Pig**: The spot price has adjusted in August, and the slaughter volume has increased. It is recommended to shift long positions of the 09 contract to the 2511 contract and wait for an opportunity to buy the 2605 contract [7]. - **Egg**: The 09 contract price has continued to decline, and the spot price has stabilized in some areas. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy the 10 - contract at low prices [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - Different varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil industries have different market logics, including supply - demand relationships, price support and pressure levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, the 01 contract of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; the 09 contract of corn is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to shift short positions to far - month contracts [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For different varieties' inter - period and inter - variety arbitrage, different reference strategies are provided, such as observing the 9 - 1 spread of soybean No.1, conducting positive spread operations for the 11 - 1 spread of soybean meal, and observing the 09 bean - meal to rapeseed - meal spread [11][12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors are presented, which can help investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods are provided, including CBOT prices, CNF prices, and import - duty - paid prices [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: The inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, are presented, reflecting the supply - demand situation of the industry [16]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [16]. - **Weekly Data**: The consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are presented [17]. 3.2.3 Breeding - The daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, price changes, production and sales data, and inventory data, which can help understand the market situation of the breeding industry [18][19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - A large number of charts are provided to track the fundamentals of the breeding, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, including price trends, inventory changes, production data, and spread changes, which can help investors comprehensively understand the market situation [24][34][52]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The historical volatilities of various varieties and the trading and holding volume data of corn options are presented, which can help investors understand the option market situation [71]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse - Receipt Situations of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The warehouse - receipt data of various varieties are presented, which can help investors understand the market supply situation [74].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector continues to oscillate, with a slight upward trend. The weakening of the US dollar and the easing geopolitical situation have boosted market sentiment. Domestic industrial products are showing signs of anti - involution, benefiting non - ferrous metals and related products [12][13]. - The suspension of the 24% tariff for 90 days between China and the US provides more room for industry adjustment, which is beneficial to industrial products. China's favorable policies, such as real estate and personal consumption loan subsidy policies, also have a positive impact on the market [12]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased due to the lower - than - expected inflation data in the US in July, which is conducive to the rise of non - ferrous metals prices [12]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector oscillates. The suspension of tariffs, China's favorable policies, the easing geopolitical situation, and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut all have a positive impact on the non - ferrous metals market. The market should pay attention to relevant economic data this week [12][13]. - **Variety Analysis** - **Copper**: The exemption of US refined copper import tariffs will change the global copper trade flow. The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper are gradually becoming more balanced, and it is expected to rebound in the short term. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [3][14]. - **Zinc**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to take short - term long positions and short on rallies in the medium term [4][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum market is in a state of shock. It is recommended to wait and see or take small short positions. The alumina market has regional supply - demand mismatches, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [5][14][15]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound state, and the recommended strategy is to buy on dips and sell on rallies [6][14][15]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand are increasing, and it is recommended to take long positions on dips and use option double - selling strategies [7][8][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. It is recommended to take short - term long positions on nickel and long positions on stainless steel in the short term, and short on rallies in the medium term [9][14][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are presented, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and casting aluminum alloy [21][23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant industry chain charts are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][29][31]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For different non - ferrous metal varieties, charts related to arbitrage are presented, such as the ratio of domestic to foreign prices, basis, and spreads between different contracts [62][63][66]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For various non - ferrous metal varieties, charts related to options are presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [80][82][85].