| 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 摘要 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月05日星期四 农产品团队 【行情复盘】周四，春节前资金频繁调仓带来商品市场剧烈波动。 橡胶期价增仓反弹后在前高附近反复震荡，商品大跌后情绪略有缓 和，本周金银多头集中获利平仓，带动商品出现系统性大跌，不少 商品迅速吞没前期涨幅。春节前资金调仓带动商品波动率上升。橡 胶期价减仓大幅下挫跌回起涨点，原料价格方面，泰国中央市场胶 水报价58泰铢/kg。盘后山东地区SCRWF报价15750元/吨，环比- 100。供给端，泰国地区上量高峰期将过，东北地区临近停割，预 计本轮割胶季旺季维持到2月左右，节后供应压力有望减轻。春节 临近，短期下游采购意愿减弱，顺丁现货报价下调后交投有所提升 ，现货市场逐步闭 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月03日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 金银市场史诗级的下跌引发铜价下挫，但随着日间金银市场恐慌情 绪缓解，铜市场情绪明显回暖，午后出现明显反弹。特朗普拟设12 0亿美元关键矿产战略储备，储备范围覆盖稀土和关键矿产，未来 铜作为战略资源有望获得进一步溢价。1月铜价的上涨更多来自估 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月02日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 生鲜软商品板块日度 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market rose rapidly under the boost of capital, with the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing as the main driving forces. The price broke through the historical high and continued to strengthen, and is currently fluctuating widely at a high level [59]. - In 2026, the tight supply of tin ore will gradually ease, showing a pattern of tight supply in the first half and loose in the second half. The operating rate of smelters will improve after the holiday. The processing fee, which has been at a low level, increased in January and has room for further growth. However, the secondary tin smelting industry still faces problems such as an inefficient waste recycling system and uncertain recycling policies [59]. - In terms of demand, the tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue its good growth trend in 2026, benefiting from the rapid development of the semiconductor industry due to computing power demand. In addition, the external demand in the traditional tin - plated sheet field is expanding, offsetting some of the negative impact of the decline in domestic demand. The future development of Sino - US trade frictions remains the biggest uncertainty [59]. - In 2026, the global interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the non - ferrous metal sector will cyclically improve. The supply side is likely to gradually loosen, while the downstream demand also has some bright spots. The supply and demand of tin are likely to remain in a tight - balanced situation. It is expected that tin prices will remain strong in 2026, with the Shanghai tin futures price mainly ranging between 350,000 - 450,000 and the LME tin price mainly between 45,000 - 60,000 [59]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review and Macroeconomic Impact - **Market Review**: In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market accelerated its upward rush, and the overall center of gravity shifted significantly. The main driving forces were the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing, while the impact of the current fundamentals was relatively weak [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Geopolitical situations are complex and changeable. The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros and restricting US companies from entering the EU market. The US will impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the candidate for the new Fed chair is undetermined. Since January, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [11]. Part II: Tin Supply - Side Analysis - **Tin Ore Supply**: China's tin ore production has been declining in recent years due to over - exploitation, low - grade reserves, and limited new resource discoveries. In 2025, the production of tin concentrates in China showed a slight increase. In December 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual increase in tin ore exports from the Wa State in Myanmar, the import volume is expected to increase in 2026 [17]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In 2025, the price of tin concentrates showed an upward trend, and the processing fee was weak. In 2026, with a slight improvement in ore supply, the processing fee was raised. In December 2025, the output of refined tin by domestic sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, the supply growth rate of refined tin will be slightly higher than that in 2025, but the output in January may decrease month - on - month [20]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: In 2026, there is a trend of opening the refined tin import window. In December 2025, both imports and exports of refined tin increased. In 2025, China's net exports of refined tin were nearly 3,500 tons [23]. Part III: Tin Demand - Side Analysis - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. However, in 2025, due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and the decline in domestic demand, the production decreased significantly. In 2025, the export of tin - plated sheets increased, but the future export situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war [29]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The production of lead - acid batteries has been growing in recent years, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2025, the export of lead - acid batteries decreased year - on - year due to the impact of the trade war [30]. - **Electronic Products**: The growth cycle of electronic products is approaching the end. In 2025, the production growth rate of electronic products turned negative. It is expected that the production and sales of computers and mobile phones will decline in 2026 [35]. - **Integrated Circuits**: Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, it is expected that the production and sales of integrated circuits will continue to grow rapidly in the medium and long term [36]. - **PVC and Glass**: The production of PVC has been increasing, while the production of glass has been decreasing. Each ton of glass consumes about 22 grams of tin [41]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry is transforming from a high - speed development stage. In 2025, there was a rush to install photovoltaic capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW. The new tin demand in the global photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 43,000 tons, and about 20,000 tons in China [44]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. It is expected that the growth rate in 2026 will be between 15% - 20% [48]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance**: As of December 1, 2025, the combined inventory of tin in the two major exchanges was at a relatively high - middle level. The global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months since 2018. In 2025 and 2026, the supply and demand are expected to remain in a tight - balanced situation [51][55]. - **Seasonal Analysis**: Historically, tin prices are weakest in June, and the probability of decline is high in March and October. The probability of increase is high in January, April, July, and December, and the increase is relatively significant. The probability of decline in August is slightly higher than that of increase, while the probability of increase in November is higher [57]. - **Related Stocks**: The stocks of related tin industries have shown significant increases in both monthly and annual terms, such as Tin Industry Co., Ltd., Xingye Co., Ltd., etc. [58]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall weakness of hog prices is difficult to reverse due to continuous release of production capacity pressure [1] - In February 2026, the market generally expects a significant decline in spot hog prices after the Spring Festival, with the post - holiday low possibly falling below 11.5 yuan/kg [5] - In trading, it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling. After the Spring Festival, wait for the spot low to buy contracts 05 and 07 at low prices, or hold long futures positions and sell deep out - of - the - money call options [5] - Pay attention to the seasonal low of spot prices after the Spring Festival and the culling of breeding sows [95] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 January Hog Spot and Futures Price Review - In January 2026, the overall commodity market strengthened, and the agricultural product index rebounded. However, the hog index hit a new low and continued to fluctuate at a low level [9][10] - The hog spot price rebounded briefly in January and then fell back to a historical low. The price of piglets rebounded significantly, and the feed price was relatively strong [14][17][20] - Terminal consumption did not improve significantly, the average price of白条 meat fluctuated at a low level for a long time, and the pressure of poultry prices on hog prices decreased [23][29] - The hog price showed a slight upward trend before the Spring Festival this year. Historically, the average monthly increase in January was - 2.3%, and the probability of an increase was 46% [32] Hog Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The inventory of breeding sows is currently in the green reasonable range, with a limited overall decline compared to 2024 [34][35] - The capital expenditure of group enterprises has decreased significantly compared to previous years, and the current culling of breeding sows is relatively moderate [36][38] - The production efficiency of single sows has increased, and the gap between leading enterprises is gradually narrowing [40] Listed Hog Enterprises - In 2025, the slaughter volume of leading group companies increased significantly year - on - year. However, the profitability of group enterprises was highly differentiated, and most still suffered losses [45][46] - In 2025, the overall breeding cost of group enterprises decreased, but the differences were large, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies was at a historically high level [49][50] Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In January, the sentiment of passive hog retention was still high, the weight reduction speed of the industry was slow, and the slaughter volume was at a historically low level [54][57][59] - The import volume of pork and offal declined from a high level, and the overall frozen product inventory was in the destocking stage in January [61][64] - In January, self - breeding and self - raising turned profitable, while the slaughter of purchased piglets continued to be in a loss state [67][68] Hog Futures Price - The hog futures price rebounded following the spot price and then fell back. The near - month futures price has become at a discount to the spot price [69] - The hog index failed to rebound from a historical low, and the trading volume was at a historically high level. The ratio of hog to feed on the futures market was close to a historical low [70][73] - Contracts 2603 and 2605 are below the breeding cost, and there is an expectation of a post - holiday off - season with a discount to the spot price. The price of peak - season contracts is slightly higher than the breeding cost but has a high premium to the current spot price [75][78] - The basis is slightly stronger than in the same period of previous years. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival spot price trend. There may still be reverse arbitrage opportunities between months, and the discount before the futures delivery month is still high [81][84][87] - The volatility of the hog 2605 contract is at a low level [93]

聚酯产业链期货期权2月报告 投资咨询业务资格:京证监许可【2012]75号 聚酯产业链：成本与需求博弈 行情震荡为主 能源化工团队/俞杨烽 （交易咨询证号Z0015361） 年 月 日 文字/背景 Text/Background 填充色 Accents 3 聚酯产业链行情回顾 数据来源：文华，方正中期研究院 • 2026年1月，随着春节临近，中下游开工逐步走弱使得需求下降，但是原油价格底部回升在成本端形成支撑，同时由于聚酯链品种估值偏低且中远期供需结构趋 于改善，使得市场看涨情绪高涨，推升价格破位上行。 2 文字/背景 Text/Background 填充色 Accents 原油：地缘风险溢价抬升 数据来源：文华，方正中期研究院 • 2026年1月，美国逮捕了委内瑞拉总统，伊朗国内局势动荡，同时美国向中东增兵使得中东地缘风险升温，国际局势动荡，使得原油地缘风险溢价上升，油 价由底部震荡回升。其中，布伦特原油由60美元/桶回升至70美元/桶附近。 文字/背景 Text/Background 填充色 Accents OPEC+原油产量延续增加 美国商业和战略储备原油库存同比上升 350000 400000 450 ...

铜：牛市之路，虽九死其犹未悔 方正中期研究院/梁海宽 Z0015305 年 月 日 全球宏观与铜市 01 铜供应情况分析 02 铜需求情况分析 03 铜库存变化分析 04 全球铜供需平衡 05 铜持仓分析 06 套利分析 07 铜期权市场 08 09 铜市场展望与操作建议 目 录 CONTENTS 铜市1月回顾 • 全球铜市2026年1月再创历史新高，但创新高的过程中伴随着剧烈 的波动。伦敦铜一度突破放量突破14000美元关口，有开启主升浪 的迹象，但随后大幅回落，抹去多数涨幅。月线依旧收涨，伦铜 和沪铜月涨幅均在5%左右，外盘略强于内盘，但月线收出长长的 上影线。相较于基本面而言，市场情绪和资金的流入是影响全球1 月铜市的更为重要因素。金银价格的迭创新高和加速上涨，造成 部分资金外溢至铜市，金铜比的持续走高使得铜自身估值有向上 修复的动力。 • 宏观层面，美联储1月如期按兵不动，美元指数持续下跌至近4年 低点，带动金银铜价格大涨。美国经济维持韧性，消费整体表现 依旧强劲。但随着月底特朗普提名沃什为美联储新任主席，全球 大类资产出现巨震。美元指数强势反弹，引发金银价格史诗级别 的下跌，铜价亦因此受到拖累，抹去 ...

铝产业链2026年2月报告 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 铝产业链：淡季已至 弱现实与强预期博弈 有色贵金属与新能源团队 胡彬 投资咨询证号：Z0011019 2026年2月2日 www.founderfu.com CONTENT | 第一部分 | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 第二部分 CONTENT | 产业链上游 | | 目录 第三部分 | 产业链中游 | | 第四部分 | 产业链下游 | | 第五部分 | 产业链终端 | 行情回顾：铝 1月以来沪铝盘面震荡上行，几度大幅拉升，之后震荡整理，月末最后一个交易日受贵金属行情影响大幅回调。宏观面的驱动因素以及资金层面的 板块共振是盘面主要动能。 资料来源：文华财经 行情回顾：氧化铝 资料来源：文华财经 1月以来氧化铝盘面先扬后抑再反弹，整体呈现宽幅震荡的运行态势。化工板块的活跃以及供给端自身的少量减产是主要影响因素。 行情回顾：铸造铝合金 自6月铸造铝合金上市以来，盘面呈现震荡走强的局面，整体波动基本与沪铝同频。 资料来源：文华财经 | 第一部分 | | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二部分 | ...

锌期货期权2026年2月报告 锌：板块共振重心上移 阶段调整后仍存上行可能 有色贵金属与新能源团队 杨莉娜 Z0002618 2026年2月2日 www.founderfu.com CONTENTS 全球宏观与锌市 01 锌供应情况分析 02 锌需求情况分析 03 锌库存变化分析 04 锌技术分析 06 锌套利分析 07 锌期权市场 08 锌供需平衡 05 目 录 主要观点 • 宏观：美联储降息暂停，中美制造业富于韧性；地缘扰动，AI与高科技制造、能源转型下各国重视关键供应链，供 给端扰动利多效用继续放大；资金从贵金属向有色扩散溢出传导带动，提振板块轮动向上；强预期与需求端实际有 所背离，需防预期提振弱化下的强势调整。 • 供应端：锌精矿供给季节性偏紧，国内冶炼厂前期冬储备库已经完成，整体原料库存水平较高，但春节假期将至， 1月国内部分铅锌矿山常规检修停产，导致国内锌精矿供应继续走弱，预计2月整体供需格局难有改善。海外矿端 有扰动，伊朗局势可能对锌矿、锌锭供应带来些许扰动，而其它矿山社区抗议对采矿活动扰动也带来暂时影响。欧 洲地区天然气季节性上涨也一度提升伦锌走势，叠加伦锌低库存，外盘偏强。国内精炼锌则表现供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, lead prices showed a fluctuating trend, mainly between 16,850 - 17,860 yuan. In February, lead is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, with a wide - range pattern remaining unchanged, and the fluctuation range is expected to be mainly between 16,500 - 17,600 yuan. The Shanghai lead trend is less affected by macro resonance compared to other varieties, and there may be a supply - demand mismatch and inventory accumulation around holidays. Overseas, changes in the export end should be noted [3]. - Macro factors have an impact on the non - ferrous metal market. The long - term demand for non - ferrous metals is boosted by factors such as technology, AI, and energy transformation. The Fed still has room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and China maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The dollar index is expected to be weakly volatile, which may boost the attractiveness of metals. However, the new Fed chairman's policy combination has brought short - term pressure on metals [17]. - The supply and demand of lead are both weak. On the supply side, the supply of lead - rich silver lead ore is tight, the processing fee has declined, and the by - product benefits are considerable. The supply of primary lead is restricted by the ore supply, and the supply of recycled lead is supported by the high price of waste batteries and affected by winter environmental protection. On the demand side, due to the low finished product orders, lead battery enterprises have high finished product inventories, and their stockpiling of lead ingots is limited, resulting in a light trading volume in the lead spot market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Market Review - **Lead Futures Trend Review**: In January 2026, most of the time, the Shanghai lead fluctuated within the range of 16,850 - 17,860 yuan/ton. The raw materials were relatively strong, which limited the downward space of lead prices. The center of lead prices once rebounded due to the resonance of non - ferrous metals, but the demand was weak, and the price rose weakly and then fell [8]. - **Lead Spot Basis**: In January 2026, the basis mainly fluctuated between 0 and - 200, showing a weakening trend, with the futures being stronger than the spot [11]. 3.2 Second Part: Macro Analysis - **Macro - factors Affecting Non - ferrous Metals**: Technology, AI, and energy transformation boost the long - term demand for non - ferrous metals. The Fed has room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and China maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The dollar index is expected to be weakly volatile, which may boost the attractiveness of metals. However, the new Fed chairman's "balance - sheet reduction + interest rate cut" policy combination has brought short - term pressure on non - ferrous metals [17]. - **Future Focus**: The rhythm of interest rate cuts and geopolitical impacts will continue to have a strong impact on the non - ferrous metal sector. China's policies are favorable, but the overseas trade disputes faced by lead still exist, which will continue to have an adverse impact on exports [21]. 3.3 Third Part: Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Raw Material End - **Lead Ore Supply**: In 2025, the global lead ore production was 457 million tons (metal content), with a year - on - year increase of only 0.7%. In 2026, it is expected to reach 467 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. China's lead ore production increased in 2025, with a cumulative production of 117.77 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% according to the National Bureau of Statistics [27][32]. - **Lead Ore Import**: In 2025, the lead ore import volume was 1,419,824.94 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.05%. The import window was occasionally opened, and the import of lead concentrates turned profitable [35]. - **Lead Ore Processing Fee**: The processing fee of high - silver lead concentrates has declined. In 2025, the processing fee showed a short - term rebound but weakened further in the second half of the year and continued into 2026. The by - product income has become the main source of smelter income, but the profit space of smelters is still restricted [39]. 3.3.2 Supply End - **Refined Lead Production**: In 2025, the production of primary lead increased, with a total output of 385.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.6%. In January 2026, the output is expected to increase slightly, but the actual output may be light due to environmental protection and profit issues. The output of recycled lead is expected to decline after reaching a high at the end of 2025 [42][45]. - **Total Lead Supply**: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2025, the total lead output was 774.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [52]. 3.3.3 Import - Export - **Refined Lead Net Import**: China has become a net importer of refined lead since 2024. In 2025, the cumulative net import was positive, with an import volume of 44,452.67 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.71%, and an export volume of 35,982.28 tons, a year - on - year increase of 63.60% [56]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Refined Lead Inventory**: Since 2023, the LME lead inventory has increased significantly from a historical low, while the domestic inventory has fluctuated and recovered but is still at a relatively low level. As of the end of January 2026, the LME lead inventory was 205,575 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.18%, and the Shanghai lead inventory was 30,584 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.33% [59]. 3.3.5 Demand End - **Lead Battery**: In 2025, the domestic demand for lead batteries was strong under policy support, but the export declined due to anti - dumping by GCC countries. Since 2025, the export of lead batteries has shown negative growth, with a cumulative export volume of 219 million units in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 12.79% [62]. - **Automobile**: In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles reached new highs, with new energy vehicles becoming the dominant force in the market [66]. - **New - standard Electric Bicycle**: The sales of new - standard electric bicycles at the beginning of 2026 were weak. Although the replacement of over - standard electric bicycles and the "trade - in" policy have boosted sales, the impact of lithium - battery replacement cannot be ignored [70]. - **Motorcycle**: In 2025, the production and sales of motorcycles increased, and the export also showed a significant growth trend [73]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Supply - Demand Balance - **Global Refined Lead**: According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), in 2025, the global refined lead market had a surplus of 91,000 tons, and it is expected to increase to 102,000 tons in 2026 [81]. - **Domestic Refined Lead**: It is expected that the domestic refined lead will have a small surplus in 2026 [82]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Seasonal and Technical Analysis - **LME Lead Position Structure**: The current LME lead position structure is slightly bullish for lead prices [87]. - **Lead Seasonal Trend**: The seasonal trend of lead is related to the demand cycle. The months with a high probability of decline are March, September, November, and December, while the months with a high probability of increase are January, June, July, and August. However, lead prices declined in January in both 2025 and 2026, and there is a possibility of an opposite trend in February [88]. - **Lead Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai lead has maintained a wide - range oscillation pattern for a long time. In January 2026, it rose and then fell, and the support level is expected to be at 16,500 - 16,600, with the upper pressure level at 17,800 - 18,000. The oscillation pattern is expected to continue [92]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - **Conclusion**: In February 2026, the supply and demand of lead are expected to be weak, and there may be a supply - demand mismatch and inventory accumulation around holidays. Lead is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, mainly fluctuating between 16,500 - 17,600 yuan [95]. - **Operation Suggestions**: During the oscillation period, enterprises should purchase on demand and avoid excessive inventory. If the price drops significantly and is fully adjusted, they can consider buying hedging. In the case of low volatility, they can consider selling out - of - the - money options to collect option premiums [95].