甲醇周报：甲醇强现实向弱预期的转换或将开启-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Methanol may shift from a strong current situation to a weak future expectation. The futures price is likely to continue its weak trend, and the spot price may move towards the futures price [10][35]. - When the operating logic of methanol moves towards the realization of weak expectations, there may be further room for the decline of methanol futures, and opportunities for short - selling methanol can be considered. Spot enterprises can also pay attention to the opportunity of selling hedging for methanol [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures continued to oscillate weakly, which did not match the strong trend of the spot price in East China's Taicang. The current market contradiction lies in the mismatch between the recovery of coastal MTO demand and insufficient import supply. The tight spot circulation in ports pushed the basis in East China to over +120 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Domestic Methanol Production Declined for Seven Consecutive Weeks - From March 21 - 27, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,826,845 tons, a decrease of 27,390 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%. The number of devices under maintenance and production reduction exceeded those under recovery, leading to a decline in capacity utilization [14]. 2.2 Last Week, the Overall Capacity Utilization Rate of Methanol Downstream Remained Stable - As of March 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products were as follows: the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 6.74%; the overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the operating rate of methane chloride was 77.81%; the operating rate of formaldehyde was 52.42% [18][19]. 2.3 Last Week, the Inventory of Methanol Sample Production Enterprises Decreased - As of 11:30 on March 26, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 327,800 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 5.09%. The inventory in the northwest region decreased by 9.85% month - on - month, while that in the east, north, central, and southwest regions increased to varying degrees, and the inventory in the northeast region decreased by 5.56% month - on - month [20]. 2.4 Last Week, the Inventory of Methanol Port Samples Continued to Decline - As of March 26, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 773,800 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.29%. The inventory in the Jiangsu area decreased, the inventory in the Zhejiang area increased, and the inventory in the Guangdong and Fujian areas decreased [25][26]. 2.5 Methanol Profits Generally Recovered - From March 21 - 27, 2025, the average weekly profits of domestic methanol samples showed mixed trends. The average profit of coke oven gas in Hebei was 457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.17%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 275.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.25% and a year - on - year increase of 49.68% [28]. 2.6 Import and Export - In February 2025, China's actual methanol import unloading was 50,960 tons, a decrease of 544,600 tons from the previous month, a decline of 51.71%. The import supply from the Middle East decreased significantly. In February, due to the closure of the re - export arbitrage window, China's actual methanol export was extremely low [32]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 1.8998 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 87.40%, an increase from the current period. The overall capacity utilization rate of the main downstream products of methanol is expected to remain stable. The inventory of methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 325,600 tons, a slight decrease from the current period. The port inventory is expected to decrease significantly. In March 2025, the estimated total import volume is around 534,900 tons, and the export is expected to increase significantly [33].