碳价：电价是否有可能与煤价走出剪刀差？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility and environmental sectors [6]. Core Insights - The carbon market is accelerating, with the price expected to enter a long-term upward cycle due to market expansion and tightening supply [12][16]. - By 2030, China's power carbon intensity is projected to decrease by 14% compared to 2023, aligning closely with levels in the US and Germany [2][31]. - The implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026 is anticipated to drive long-term increases in carbon prices [3][29]. Summary by Sections Carbon Market Dynamics - The carbon market is set to expand significantly, with an estimated additional emissions volume of 3 billion tons by 2024, covering approximately 60% of emissions [12][16]. - The average carbon price is projected to rise from 68 RMB/ton in 2023 to 96 RMB/ton in 2024, driven by tightening supply and increased demand [12][21]. Power Sector Developments - The carbon footprint factor for China's electricity is reported at 0.6205 kgCO₂e/kWh, with coal power significantly lower than international benchmarks [2][31]. - The carbon intensity of electricity is expected to decrease to 0.5108 kgCO₂e/kWh by 2030, nearing the levels of the US and Germany [2][31]. Price Transmission Effects - A rise in carbon prices will lead to increased costs for coal and gas power generation, with potential increases of 0.094 RMB and 0.048 RMB per kWh respectively for every 100 RMB increase in carbon price [3][13]. - High-energy-consuming industries such as aluminum, steel, and cement may see significant cost increases, potentially leading to price hikes and capacity exits [3][13]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. Utility companies benefiting from cost transmission, recommending stocks like Guodian Power and China Nuclear Power [5][9]. 2. Green electricity and environmental sectors benefiting from rigid carbon reduction demands, recommending stocks like China Green Power and Three Gorges Energy [5][9]. 3. Increased demand for carbon-related testing and certification, recommending companies like Huace Testing and Guangdian Measurement [5][9].