铁矿石3月报：两会政策定调，市场震荡加剧-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic during the Two Sessions dominates, with intensified long - short gaming in the market. The fundamentals of iron ore have no major contradictions, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The 05 contract of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within the range of [740 - 840] [7][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - Overall Situation: The trading logic during the Two Sessions is dominant, and the iron ore market has intensified long - short gaming. The fundamentals are not weak, and the 05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 740 - 840 yuan/ton [7][10]. - Fundamentals: Supply side - the shipments from Australia and Brazil have recovered, and the near - term arrivals may decline. Demand side - steel mills have decent profits, iron - water production is expected to increase slightly, and the demand for iron ore is not weak. Inventory - port inventory is at a high level, but the inventory pressure is not large [10]. - Spot and Futures: In February, the spot price of iron ore oscillated slightly higher, with medium - and low - grade iron powder prices rising by about 10 yuan/wet ton. As of February 28, the closing price of the main iron ore contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.36%. The basis on the 28th was 2.5 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening [10]. - Spread: The spread between DCE and SGX iron ore in February was around 30 yuan/ton, up from January and at the historical average level. As of the end of February, the rebar - iron ore spread (05 contract) was 2528.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton compared with the end of January; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.16, a decrease of 0.01 compared with the end of January [10]. - Supply: The shipments of the four major mines have recovered rapidly, and the near - term arrivals have decreased. In February, the domestic mine production increased [10]. - Demand: Steel mills' production profits are decent, but production is cautious. The iron - water production is maintained at around 228 tons/day, and the weekly consumption of imported iron ore is around 280 - 285 tons/day [10]. - Inventory: The port inventory is at a high level, and the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The port dredging volume has increased slightly [10]. - Strategy: Conduct range - bound operations on the 05 contract of iron ore within the range of [740 - 840] [10]. 3.2 Macro Level - Construction - Project Fund Availability: As of February 25, the sample construction site fund availability was 56.47%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points. The fund availability of non - housing construction and housing construction projects has improved, with non - housing construction showing a slightly better improvement [13]. - Construction - Cement and Concrete Outbound Volume: In February, the cement outbound volume increased continuously. As of the week of February 28, the weekly cement outbound volume was 156.6 tons, an increase of 129.48 tons compared with the week of February 7. The concrete shipment volume increased gradually, but the increase was significantly smaller than that of cement [16]. - Infrastructure - Cement Direct Supply Volume: In February, the infrastructure cement direct supply volume increased significantly, rising from 2 tons/week at the beginning of the month to 80 tons/week at the end of the month. The asphalt sales volume doubled [19]. - Manufacturing - PMI Index: In February, the manufacturing PMI index was 50.2%, a rebound of 1.1 percentage points from January. The March production plan of three major white - goods was 40.5 million units, a month - on - month increase of 38.98% and higher than the historical average [21]. 3.3 Spot and Basis - Black Sector Commodity Prices: In February, steel prices oscillated more violently, with slight declines in rebar and hot - rolled coil prices. Iron ore prices were relatively firm, while coke prices were lowered in three rounds [25]. - Iron Ore Spot Price: In February, the iron ore spot price oscillated slightly higher. Except for high - grade iron powder, the prices of medium - and low - grade iron powder increased by about 10 yuan/wet ton [30]. - Iron Ore Futures Price: As of February 28, the closing price of the main iron ore contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.36%. The basis on the 28th was 2.5 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening [33]. - Iron Ore Position: In February, the single - sided position of iron ore first increased and then decreased, reaching a maximum of 935,000 lots on February 21 [36]. - Inter - period Spread: The Back curve of iron ore prices moved down, and the curve became steeper. The 1 - 5 spread and 5 - 9 spread widened slightly [40][43]. 3.4 Spread - Cross - market Spread: The spread between DCE and SGX iron ore in February was around 30 yuan/ton, up from January and at the historical average level [47]. - Cross - variety Spread: As of the end of February, the rebar - iron ore spread (05 contract) was 2528.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton compared with the end of January; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.16, a decrease of 0.01 compared with the end of January. The arbitrage opportunity between rebar and iron ore is limited [49]. 3.5 Supply - Global Shipment Volume: As of the week of February 28, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.954 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.285 million tons, an increase of 10.71%. The Australian and Brazilian shipment volume was 27.376 million tons, an increase of 1.622 million tons, an increase of 6.3% [52]. - Four Major Mines' Shipment to China: As of the week of February 28, the shipment of the four major mines to China was 19.228 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,000 tons, a decrease of 0.18% [56]. - 47 - Port Arrival Volume: As of the week of February 28, the 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 18.861 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.89 million tons, a decrease of 17.1% [60]. - Domestic Mine Supply: In February, the capacity utilization rate and production of domestic mines increased [62][65]. 3.6 Demand - Iron - water Production: In February, the daily average iron - water production was around 2.28 million tons, and the weekly consumption of imported iron ore was around 2.8 - 2.85 million tons/day [68]. - Blast Furnace Operation: In February, the blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel enterprises was around 78%, and the capacity utilization rate was around 85.5% [70]. - Steel Mill Profit: In February, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises was around 50%. The profit of blast - furnace rebar production was relatively high, while the profit of electric - furnace steel production decreased [73][78]. 3.7 Inventory - Domestic Mine Inventory: As of the week of February 28, the iron ore concentrate inventory of 126 and 186 mining enterprises increased slightly compared with the beginning of the month, but remained at a low level [91]. - Steel Mill Inventory: As of the week of February 28, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 91.6719 million tons, a decrease of 2.9755 million tons compared with the beginning of February [94]. - Port Inventory: As of the week of February 28, the 47 - port iron ore inventory was 157.564 million tons, a decrease of 2.4628 million tons compared with the beginning of the month [97]. - Dredging Volume: As of the week of February 28, the average daily dredging volume of 45 ports was 2.9883 million tons, an increase of 301,600 tons/day compared with the beginning of February [100].