2026 年展望—碳酸锂年报 佛山金控期货 研究部 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2013】193 号 人员：冯文勇 期货从业资格号：F03147404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017200 联系方式：0757-86296271 地址：佛山市南海区桂城街 道永胜西路 22 号新凯广场 2 座39 楼 佛山金控期货网址：http:// www.fsjkqh.com/ 碳酸锂年报：供需平衡逆转，锂价重心上移 内容摘要： 全球锂资源供给保持快速增长（+24%）：2025 年海外上半年高成本 矿山减产以及国内下半年反内卷政策及矿权减产影响明显，今明两年 新增待投项目产能合计超 40 万吨，利润恢复使项目释放加速，南美、 非洲以及中国等地是主要增量来源，预计 2026 年全球锂资源供应量 达 209 万吨 LCE，同比增长约 24.4%，其中国内锂原生供给同比+51% 至 47 万吨 LCE，国内碳酸锂产量预计同比+38.86%至 134.7 万吨 LCE。 储能需求前景爆发增长（+51%）：全球储能需求快速增长主要受电网 消纳压力、光伏配储以及 AI 数据需求驱动，中国、欧洲、美国以及 中东均迎来确定性的高速增长期，国 ...

油脂油料2026年度报告： 潮平岸阔，静待晨曦 2025年12月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点策略 020304 2025年油脂油料行情回顾 国内油脂油料供需分析 全球油脂油料供需分析 05 行情展望 01 观点策略 观点策略 美豆减产330万吨已成定局，阿根廷大豆产量预计下降260万吨左右，如果巴西大豆产量在1.75亿吨左右，中国恢复采 购美豆，预计CBOT大豆较难跌破1000美分/蒲，主要是出口压力大的悲观预期已过，种植成本约1242美分/蒲，目前估值偏 低，若美国生柴政策有利多提振，预计CBOT大豆将震荡上行。 马来西亚棕榈油库存处于高位，印尼棕榈油库存维持偏低，预计印尼棕榈油生物柴油用量最多增加150万吨左右，如 果棕榈油产量维持2025年的高位或小幅增加，棕榈油的供需基本面缺乏大的矛盾，如果宏观面没有强驱动，预计棕榈油价 格较难突破10000元/吨。目前棕榈油的基本面仍偏弱，等待减产季马棕库存去化才边际好转。 全球菜籽丰产，供应宽松，预计上半年菜油仍将承压。 综合来看，预计油脂整体上震荡偏强，但目前缺乏强的驱动，如宏观资金面没有利多带动，预计油脂上方空间有限。 价差方面，关注一季度菜油丰产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price of electrolytic copper may show an inverted "V" trend throughout the year. It may fluctuate strongly in the first half of the year, challenging new highs, and weakly in the second half. The volatility of copper prices is expected to converge to a limited extent, and call options remain highly suitable. The main influencing factors include the Fed's monetary policy, Sino - US relations, changes in copper concentrate TC, and energy storage demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Market Review - In 2025, copper prices showed a generally strong and fluctuating trend. By December 10, the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract had risen by nearly 25% during the year. The copper futures market went through four stages: in the first stage (January - March), the first wave of price increase was driven by the tightening supply of copper concentrate and the market's expectation of rising US inflation. In the second stage (April - mid - September), after hitting bottom, the price rebounded and then consolidated for a long time, affected by trade wars, Fed rate - cut expectations, and other factors. In the third stage (late September - mid - November), the second wave of price increase occurred due to the supply shortage of copper concentrate and positive market news. In the fourth stage (mid - November - present), the price repeatedly broke through historical highs, driven by market concerns about the Fed's future policies [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Outlook 3.2.1 Fed Policy May Remain Loose - In 2025, the Fed's policy experienced multiple adjustments, including rate cuts and the end of the balance - sheet reduction plan. Looking ahead, according to the dot - plot after the December meeting, there is still one rate cut expected in 2026 and 2027. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and the independence of the Fed after Powell's term ends [11][12]. 3.2.2 Sino - US Game Will Continue - In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes went through several rounds of escalation and mitigation. The US used tariff hikes as a bargaining chip. In the future, Sino - US tariff disputes are expected to continue, and the US may focus on issues such as fentanyl and rare - earth exports [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side: Emerging Demands Show Obvious Increases and May Explode in 2026 3.3.1 Traditional Industries Have Limited Growth - **Real Estate Remains in a Downturn**: In 2025, despite a series of policies, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion data continued to decline. In 2026, although the government will continue to promote real - estate stability policies, the real - estate market is expected to continue to drag down copper demand in the short term [16][19]. - **White Goods Production and Sales First Strong Then Weak**: In 2025, with the support of the "trade - in" policy, white - goods production and sales were strong in the first half of the year but weakened later. In 2026, with the possible continuation of the policy and the replacement cycle, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales of three major white goods is expected to be higher than in 2025. However, the year - on - year growth rate of exports of white goods has declined overall compared to last year, and its contribution to copper demand growth has weakened [23][24]. 3.3.2 Emerging Demands Will Gradually Become the Main Force of Copper Demand - **AI and Computing Power May Boost Future Power Grid Demand**: In 2025, power and grid infrastructure investment showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In the future, AI and computing - power industries will become important demand drivers for power and grid infrastructure [29]. - **New - energy Vehicles Provide Stable Increases Despite Slower Growth**: In 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales maintained a relatively high year - on - year growth rate, providing stable copper demand. In 2026, although the subsidy for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32][34]. - **Photovoltaic Installation in China Has Stable Increases and Exports Are Impressive**: In 2025, due to policy changes, there was a "rush - to - install" phenomenon in the first five months, and the year - on - year growth rate of cumulative new installations and cumulative installations showed an inverted "V" trend. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of photovoltaic installation may be lower than in 2025 but will still be high. Photovoltaic cell exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate [35][37]. - **Energy Storage Demand May Explode**: In 2025, the new energy - storage installation volume in China is expected to increase by 24% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to reach 230GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate close to 70%. Globally, the new energy - storage installation volume in 2026 is expected to reach 480GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate of 60%, providing significant copper demand growth [44][47]. 3.4 Supply Side: Mine - end Shortage Persists, and Smelter Production Cuts May Expand 3.4.1 Frequent Overseas Mine Incidents Lead to Continuous Decline in Copper Concentrate TC - In 2025, overseas copper mines experienced many incidents, causing copper concentrate TC to decline continuously. CSPT called on domestic smelters to jointly cut production in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the global copper concentrate increment is expected to be 45 - 56 tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The shortage of copper concentrate will persist in the first half of 2026, and TC may remain at a very low level [49][62]. 3.4.2 Copper Mine Shortage Has Limited Impact on the Smelting End - In 2025, although copper concentrate was in short supply, the global and Chinese electrolytic copper production basically maintained the highest level in the same period of the past five years. In 2026, the shortage of copper concentrate may be difficult to ease in the first half of the year, and the domestic smelting industry may have a larger - scale joint production cut than in Q4 2025 [63]. 3.4.3 The Siphon Effect of US Copper Continues, and Spot Supplies of Shanghai and London Copper Are Tight - In 2025, due to factors such as tariffs, COMEX copper was at a significant premium, leading to a change in the global copper trade pattern. Copper flowed into the US, causing the inventory of COMEX copper to rise continuously, while the inventory of Shanghai and London copper decreased, resulting in a long - term tight spot supply and high prices [68][70]. 3.4.4 High Copper Prices Pressure Downstream Demand, and Social Inventory Remains at a High Level - In 2025, electrolytic copper social inventory increased to a high level in September, but it had little pressure on copper prices, which were mainly driven by macro factors and low copper concentrate TC [77]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Global Copper Concentrate Supply - Demand Balance Remains Tight - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance was expected to be - 35 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 40 tons, with the supply gap widening compared to 2025. The shortage will persist in Q1 2026 and gradually ease in the later quarters [79][80]. 3.5.2 Electrolytic Copper Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: In 2025, the global electrolytic copper supply - demand balance was in a tight state at - 5 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 21 tons, with the gap widening. - **China**: In 2025, the supply - demand balance of Chinese electrolytic copper was - 20.04 tons, with the gap nearly doubling compared to 2024. In 2026, it may decline slightly to - 30 tons, with the gap widening slightly compared to 2025 [81][83].

永胜西路22 号新凯广场2 座39 楼 http://www.fsjkqh.com/ 2026 年度展望—聚酯产业 人员：梁嘉欣 佛山金控期货 期货从业资格号：F3062049 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016966 联系方式：0757-86296271 佛山金控期货 PTA：展望 2026 年，在宏观环境趋稳、内需稳步修复的背景下， 我国聚酯行业产能将继续有序扩张，对上游原料形成支撑。PTA 全年 暂无新增产能，供需结构预计偏紧。伴随上游 PX 供应增加，利润有 望向中游让渡，PTA 加工费存在修复空间。分季度看，一季度在库存 积累压力下价格或承压；二季度起，随着上游检修集中、聚酯新产能 投放及传统需求旺季到来，供需有望逐步改善，价格重心存在上移预 期。下半年重点关注"金九银十"旺季表现，在全年无新产能投放的 背景下，PTA 或延续去库态势。全年可关注阶段性逢低布局机会。 研究部 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2013】193 号 乙二醇：展望 2026 年，纺织终端外需增长空间有限，内需有望 维持温和修复。乙二醇供应端在上半年受新增产能投放及累库效应影 响面临压力，下半年随着投产放缓、尤其三季度暂无新投产能， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market in 2026 is expected to revolve around "demand structure change", "supply regulation", and "cost support". The market will show a weak and volatile trend with limited upside and downside space, restricted by demand increment on the upside and supported by cost and supply regulation on the downside [1][2]. - Policy will significantly influence the end - use flow of steel. Coil demand may maintain a certain growth rate, infrastructure will provide a cushion, while the real - estate construction sector will remain weak [1]. - Supply regulation aims to guide steel towards high - value - added products, and steel mills face the challenge of reducing production while maintaining profits in the over - capacity stage. Supply is expected to slightly decline [2]. - Cost support depends on the "anti - involution" trend in the coal industry and the price support of iron ore. Iron ore prices may decline in 2026 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Three Keywords - **Weak demand for finished products**: In 2025, real - estate construction demand was weak, and infrastructure's demand - increasing effect on building materials was limited. Although manufacturing and exports provided some support, they couldn't make up for the real - estate demand gap, restricting the upside of steel, iron ore, and coking coal prices [7]. - **Anti - involution policy**: It dominated the second - half trend of the black - sector market, especially in the coal sector. Policy changes led to significant price fluctuations in coking coal and coke [8]. - **Tariff trade war**: Sino - US trade frictions mainly affected the indirect export of coils, intensifying market fluctuations in the black sector [8]. 1.2 Policy Review - Steel - related policies in 2025 focused on "promoting upgrading + stabilizing growth + anti - involution", while coal - related policies emphasized "anti - involution + safety + supply guarantee + clean and efficient utilization". In 2026, steel policies will continue to promote high - end development and "anti - involution" implementation needs attention [11][12]. 1.3 Market Recap - **January - February**: Before and after the Spring Festival, demand was weak. Steel winter - storage willingness was low. After the festival, construction resumption was delayed, and steel prices were under pressure. Coal prices were lowered, while iron ore prices were firm due to shipping disruptions [14]. - **March - May**: The domestic demand peak season was below expectations, and export trade frictions intensified. Steel prices dropped, and coal prices declined significantly, while iron ore prices were relatively stable [15]. - **June - July**: Coal supply tightened, and the "anti - involution" policy pushed the black - sector market to rebound. Steel prices increased under cost support [16]. - **August - October**: The "anti - involution" policy expectations fluctuated, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectations were disappointed. Steel continued to accumulate inventory, and steel mill profits were compressed [17]. - **November - December**: Coal prices fluctuated due to supply - side disturbances. Steel supply, demand, and inventory were all weak, with limited fundamental contradictions [18]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel Terminal Demand - **Real estate**: In 2025, real - estate investment, sales, and other data continued to decline. Policies aimed at stabilizing the market, but property sales and investment are expected to decline in 2026, reducing steel demand in real - estate construction [20][28]. - **Infrastructure**: By October 2025, infrastructure investment turned negative year - on - year due to local fiscal constraints and the use of special bonds for debt repayment. In 2026, infrastructure investment is expected to have limited growth [29][39]. - **Manufacturing and indirect export**: Manufacturing's demand for steel increased, driven by the "Two New" policies. However, due to consumption front - loading, the growth rate of steel demand in manufacturing may slow down in 2026 [40][49]. - **Direct export**: As of November 2025, steel exports increased, mainly through "price - for - volume" strategy. In 2026, exports are expected to increase slightly, and exports will develop towards high - value - added and compliant products [54][58]. - **Steel demand forecast**: In 2026, the total demand for crude steel is expected to be 9.84 billion tons, a slight decrease from 2025. Different scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic) have different demand forecasts [59][60]. 2.2 Steel Supply - In 2025, steel supply was in a situation of high capacity and weak demand. Crude steel and pig iron production decreased, while steel production increased. Supply is expected to be adjusted according to policy and profit changes in 2026 [62]. 2.3 Steel Inventory - In 2025, the inventory pressure of rebar was relatively low, with high - level inventory in winter - storage and then continuous de - stocking. The hot - rolled coil inventory increased in the second half of the year and had relatively high pressure [69][72]. 2.4 Steel Supply - Demand Summary - Supply is mainly affected by policy regulation and steel mill profits. In 2026, crude steel supply is expected to tighten, and different supply - demand scenarios are predicted [73]. 3. Outlook for 2026 3.1 Market Outlook - The steel market in 2026 will be influenced by demand structure change, supply regulation, and cost support. It is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [74][75]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side trading**: Focus on short - selling at high points in the range [3]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider spread trading at the upper and lower limits of the rebar - hot - rolled coil spread, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on rebar/hot - rolled coil and short on iron ore [3]. - **Options**: Sell call options at the upper limit of the price range [3].

氧化铝&电解铝12月报 过剩格局难以撼动，氧化铝低位震荡； 铜铝比或再迎收缩窗口，电解铝震荡为主 2025年11月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 铝土矿供应情况回顾及展望 氧化铝基本面情况回顾及展望 04 电解铝供应端情况回顾及展望 观点与策略 | | 观点 核心逻辑 | | --- | --- | | | 供应端，海外多个矿山复产，后续铝土矿发运量或将进一步提升。9月几内亚港 低位震荡 | | | 口出货量回升，我国铝土矿港口库存较高，氧化铝供应仍处过剩状态。需求端， | | | 国内电解铝产能继续高位运行，氧化铝下游需求处于高位。本周国内氧化铝行业 | | | 库存延续累库态势，铝土矿库存高企，内外矿价格均承压，成本支撑或边际走弱。 | | 氧化铝 | 综合来看，几内亚铝土矿供应回升，我国铝土矿供应总量充足，氧化铝供应过剩 | | | 格局将持续，需求端已处于天花板级别，基本面处于供需双强格局。氧化铝过剩 | | | 格局难以反转，成本支撑或走弱，后续减产规模存不确定性，预计12月氧化铝仍 | | | 将维持低位震荡。 | | | 外矿整体发运量环比下行，但外矿价格整体维稳，氧化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Currently, the most convenient deliverable for coking coal, Mongolian 5 clean coal (Tangshan area), has a premium of over 250 yuan/ton, with a warehouse receipt price of around 1200 yuan/ton. Considering the impact of blended coal, the warehouse receipt cost is about 1150 yuan/ton, close to the price of the near - month contract [2]. - The core driver of coking coal lies in policy factors. The policy side controls coal prices within a reasonable range through measures such as ensuring supply, safety inspections, and strict crackdowns on over - production. Additionally, the weakening steel price restricts the upside space of coking coal prices [2]. - The future story of coking coal revolves around the supply - side policies of coking coal. The policy side provides a floor, while the weak steel price limits the upside. For the 01 contract, the range is [1100 - 1300] [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost - The design of the futures delivery system makes the price of the near - month contract converge to the spot price. The warehouse receipt cost can be regarded as an anchor for the futures price and is worthy of investors' attention [3]. - The most convenient deliverable for coking coal futures is Mongolian 5 clean coal. If delivered in Tangshan and other places, there will be a premium of 170 yuan/ton, and combined with the quality premium, the premium will exceed 250 yuan/ton [3]. - The high premium rate makes it difficult for traders to resell the goods after taking delivery, resulting in weak willingness of coking coal buyers to take delivery. The Dalian Commodity Exchange solicited public opinions on the coking coal delivery quality standard on November 4, which will reduce the premium of each coking coal variety and increase the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 clean coal more than that of Shanxi coking coal, reducing the delivery cost - effectiveness of Mongolian coal to some extent [4][6]. - Due to year - end safety inspections, strict crackdowns on over - production, and a reduction in import quotas, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal have continued to rise. The market price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal has risen from 1460 yuan/ton to 1540 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt price is around 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton. Considering the impact of blended coal, the prices of coking coal contracts 2511 and 2512 are around 1150 yuan/ton (reference time: 2025/11/12) [7]. 3.2 Core Driving Factors of Coal Prices - In the black metal industry chain, the finished steel is weak this year, and the steel price is difficult to rise. The demand for steel in the building materials sector has decreased, and although there is a certain increase in the demand for coil products and steel exports, the increase cannot make up for the decrease in the building materials sector. With limited narrative space on the demand side, the market focus has shifted to the supply side [9]. - The core driver of coking coal price trends is policy - oriented. Policy meetings, documents, and coal mine safety accidents since July have shown that each inflection point of the coking coal market depends on policy - end drivers. The state effectively regulates coal prices to keep them fluctuating within a certain range [11]. - In addition to policy - end impacts, the steel price also restricts the upside of coking coal prices. The weak demand in the finished steel end makes it difficult for the main coking coal contract price to break through the [1330] position in the second half of the year [13]. 3.3 Future Market Suggestions - It is believed that the coking coal price will remain range - bound for the rest of the year. The future story revolves around the policy side, with the policy side providing a floor and the weak steel price limiting the upside. For the 01 contract, the range is [1100 - 1300] [15]. - For long - position investors, it is recommended to try to go long at the warehouse receipt cost level, and pay attention to the changes in the steel mill's hot metal production and coking coal supply. For short - position investors, they need to wait for the right opportunity, consider light - position layout at the high end of the range, and then gradually increase the position. They also need to pay attention to coal mine safety incidents and this year's safety inspection news. For hedgers and arbitrageurs, they should comprehensively consider warehouse receipts, storage, and capital occupation, and seize arbitrage opportunities in the volatile market [15].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the cumulative global iron ore shipments turned positive year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in Chinese imports [1]. - Among the Big Four mines, FMG and Vale had strong shipments, while Rio Tinto's shipments this year may be at the lower end of the guidance target. However, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged, so the iron ore supply will still be strong in Q4 [1]. - With a strong iron ore supply and negative feedback from finished products on the demand side, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and port inventories are increasing. The subsequent trend this year will be sideways with limited upside potential [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Shipments - As of Q3 2025, global iron ore shipments reached 1.20 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The increase in Q3 shipments (422 million tons) was mainly due to a significant increase in Chinese imports (326 million tons) [2]. - Structurally, as of Q3, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1.00 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, while those from non-Australia and Brazil regions were 200 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51% [4]. - As of September, China's cumulative iron ore imports were 919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.05%. In the first eight months, cumulative imports were negative year-on-year, but imports increased in the second half of the year due to higher steel mill profits and strong demand [4]. - In the first three quarters, China imported 560 million tons of iron ore from Australia, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, accounting for 61% of the total imports, and 196 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 21% [7]. 2. Big Four Mines 2.1 Summary of Supply in the First Three Quarters - As of mid-October 2025, the cumulative shipments of the Big Four mines were 877 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%. FMG had the largest increase, Vale's shipments increased slightly year-on-year, while BHP and Rio Tinto's shipments decreased [8]. Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target. The shipments from its Pilbara mining area increased significantly in Q3, but its shipments in the first three quarters decreased year-on-year due to the impact of a hurricane in Q1 [11]. - The grades of PB fines and lumps decreased. In Q3, the shipments of PB fines and lumps increased significantly, while those of SP fines and lumps decreased significantly [13]. - The progress of the Simandou project (designed capacity of 60 million tons/year) exceeded expectations. It is expected to load the first batch of iron ore in October and ship in November, earlier than expected by one month. The capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2026 [14]. FMG - FMG's production and sales increased year-on-year, and the guidance target remained unchanged. In Q3, its production was 50.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and shipments were 49.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [16]. - The guidance target for shipments in the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged at 195 - 205 million tons, and the C1 cost target remained unchanged at $17.5 - $18.5 per wet ton [16]. BHP - BHP's Q3 shipments decreased, and the guidance target remained unchanged. Its Q3 production in Western Australia was 70.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, mainly affected by the reconstruction of the Car Dumper 3 project at Port Hedland [19]. - The guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged, about 2 million tons higher than that of the 2025 fiscal year. The average iron ore selling price in Q3 2025 was $84.04 per ton, a 5% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [21]. Vale - Vale had strong production and sales in Q3. Its Q3 iron ore production was 94.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, mainly due to the production increase in the S11D in the northern system, Minas Centrais in the southeastern system, and Vargem Grande in the southern system [23]. - Vale's Q3 sales were 86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. It adjusted its product strategy, reducing the sales of high-grade IOCJ fines by 52% year-on-year and increasing the sales of medium-grade fines such as Brazilian Blend and Carajas fines [23]. 2.2 Outlook for Future Supply - Overall, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged. Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target, while Vale's production is moving towards the upper end of the target, and FMG has strong production and sales. Therefore, it is expected that the mine shipments will still be strong in Q4, and there will be some supply pressure on iron ore [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Domestic Supply - As of September, China's cumulative production of iron ore raw ore was 761 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%. The cumulative production of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 207 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.13%. China's demand for iron elements is highly dependent on imports [26]. 3.2 Demand - As of the end of September, the cumulative crude steel production was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and the cumulative steel production was 1.104 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%. The cumulative iron ore production of 247 sample steel enterprises was 648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [27]. - As steel mills have a certain profit margin, the iron ore production remains high, supporting the demand for iron ore. However, the weak demand for finished products is expected to reduce the demand for iron ore in the future [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Due to the contradiction between the strong supply and weak demand of iron ore, the port iron ore inventory has been continuously increasing, with certain inventory pressure. The steel mill inventory is currently maintained at around 90 million tons, and the overall inventory is at a low level [31]. - At the port end, due to the high inventory pressure last year, the year-on-year import of iron ore decreased in the early part of this year, and the port inventory continued to decline. However, with the recovery of steel mill profits and the increase in foreign ore shipments, the port has started to gradually accumulate inventory, and the current inventory is 150 million tons, with certain inventory pressure [33]. 4. Future Outlook - In the context of weak demand for finished products, the decline of iron ore in the first half of the year was smaller than that of coking coal and coke. After June, the prices of coking coal and coke continued to rise, while the increase of iron ore was less than that of coking coal and coke [34]. - Looking forward, this year's crude steel reduction is expected to be mainly through the independent production cuts of steel mills. The policy space for the demand side of finished products may be limited in the future. The supply side of iron ore remains strong, while the demand continues to weaken. Therefore, it is expected that iron ore will remain sideways in the future, but the upside potential is limited [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel terminal demand policies are limited, and due to factors such as environmental protection restrictions and steel mill losses, hot metal production has been continuously decreasing. However, coking coal and coke are prone to rising and difficult to fall under the tight supply - side situation (year - end safety inspections, mine accidents, stricter over - production inspections, and Mongolian imports), but the weak demand for finished steel restricts their upward space. It is expected that coking coal and coke will fluctuate strongly [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy 3.1.1 Overall Situation - Steel terminal demand policies are limited, and factors like environmental protection restrictions and steel mill losses lead to a continuous decline in hot metal production. The tight supply - side situation makes coking coal and coke prone to rising, but the weak demand for finished steel restricts their upward movement. The overall view is that coking coal and coke will fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.1.2 Coke - **Core**: The second round of coke price increase has been implemented, but most coking enterprises are in the red. Hot metal production is decreasing, coke production is falling, and inventory pressure is limited. - **Logic**: End - of - year demand - side policies may be limited, and the coal supply side dominates the market. Coking coal and coke are likely to rise but are restricted by weak finished - steel demand. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. - **Spot and Futures**: Spot prices have increased due to coking coal cost pressure, with two rounds of price increases in October. The main futures contract rose 9.49%. The coke term structure shows a Contango structure, and the curve's center of gravity has shifted upward. - **Price Spread**: The coke futures monthly spread is basically flat. - **Supply**: Neutral. Independent coking enterprises have reduced production due to cost pressure, while steel mill coke production has increased slightly. Coke production weakened slightly in October. - **Demand**: Bearish. Direct demand has weakened as steel mills' environmental protection restrictions and profit losses lead to a continuous decline in hot metal production. There is a price game between steel mills and coking enterprises. In terms of steel terminal demand, the real estate and infrastructure sectors in the building materials segment are weak, while the manufacturing and export sectors in the coil segment have some growth. - **Inventory**: Bullish. The overall coke inventory is at a low level. Steel mills purchase on demand, and independent coking enterprises' inventory is low. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips, with the coke 01 contract in the range of [1650 - 1820] [15]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal is tight, with strict year - end safety inspections and over - production control. Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, and inventory is at a low level. - **Spot and Futures**: Spot prices have risen due to continuous supply - side disturbances. The main futures contract rose 14.21%. The coking coal Contango curve's center of gravity has shifted upward and has flattened. - **Price Spread**: The coking coal futures monthly spread has narrowed. - **Supply**: Bullish. Mine accidents, safety inspections, stricter over - production checks, and Mongolian domestic political contradictions have led to a tight supply of coking coal. - **Demand**: Bullish. Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to purchase due to rising coal prices. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The overall inventory is at a low level. Steel mills and coking enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, and mine inventory has been continuously decreasing. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips, with the coking coal 01 contract in the range of [1150 - 1320] [17]. 3.2 Hot Events - In October, policy and supply - side disturbances continuously pushed up coal prices. For example, on October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement on regulating market price behavior, and a coal mine accident occurred in Hunan. On October 16, the central safety production inspection and patrol started. On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". On October 29, there were reports of tightened coal production restrictions at the end of the year and the shutdown of a Mongolian coal washing plant. These events had an impact on the futures prices of coking coal and coke [20]. 3.3 Steel Terminal Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Real Estate - In September, except for the narrowing of the cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction area, the cumulative year - on - year data of investment, available funds, and sales area in the real estate sector continued to weaken. In most cities, housing prices declined [23]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure - From January to September this year, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 3.69 trillion yuan, accounting for about 84% of the annual total, a year - on - year increase of 7.27 billion yuan. The use of special bonds, such as for debt reduction and land reserve projects, may limit their promotion of infrastructure [26]. 3.3.3 Manufacturing - Driven by policies, the added value of the manufacturing industry has increased year - on - year, especially in equipment, automobiles, and ships. The strong growth in the downstream manufacturing industry has increased the demand for coils, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong [29]. 3.3.4 Export - From January to September, China exported 87.955 million tons of finished steel, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. Steel exports have been strong this year, with exports shifting from coils to wire rods and billets due to anti - dumping measures and market changes [31]. 3.4 Coke Fundamental Analysis 3.4.1 Price Increase - In October, coke prices increased twice due to the firm coking coal prices and coking enterprise losses. There was a fierce price game between steel mills and coking enterprises, and automobile freight rates decreased slightly [35]. 3.4.2 Futures Price - The coke 01 contract closed at 1777 yuan/ton at the end of October, a monthly increase of 9.49%. Supply - side disturbances such as mine accidents and safety inspections pushed up the price. The basis decreased as the futures price rose more than the spot price [40]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Spread - The center of gravity of the coke price curve has shifted upward, and the slope of the Contango curve has become steeper. The monthly spread is basically flat [42][45]. 3.4.4 Supply - The daily production of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, while that of steel mills increased slightly. The total daily production of coke increased slightly. Due to cost pressure, coking enterprises' production is limited, and they want to start the third - round price increase. The supply - demand gap has decreased as hot metal production decreased [48]. 3.4.5 Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills decreased in October, and hot metal production decreased for five consecutive weeks. Weak demand for finished steel, high coal and iron ore prices, and environmental protection policies led to reduced hot metal production [56]. 3.4.6 Profit - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills has been decreasing since August, and more than half of the steel mills are in the red. Coking enterprises have been mostly losing money. The weak demand for finished steel and tight coking coal supply have put pressure on the profits of steel mills and coking enterprises, leading to a price game [58]. 3.4.7 Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased slightly. Independent coking enterprises' inventory is low, steel mills purchase on demand, and port inventory increased slightly [60]. 3.5 Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Price - Coking coal prices have strengthened due to supply - side disturbances and strong downstream restocking demand. The prices of some coking coal varieties have increased significantly [70]. 3.5.2 Futures Price - The coking coal 01 contract closed at 1286 yuan/ton at the end of October, a monthly increase of 14.21%. Supply - side factors pushed up the price, but the weak demand for finished steel limits the upward space. The basis decreased as the futures price rose [72]. 3.5.3 Inter - period Spread - The center of gravity of the coking coal Contango curve has shifted upward and flattened. The monthly spread has narrowed [74][77]. 3.5.4 Supply - The production of 523 sample mines is tight, and the daily production of raw coal and clean coal is at a low level. The operating rate of 314 coal washing plants decreased slightly, and the daily production of clean coal decreased. In September, coking coal imports increased year - on - year, but Mongolian imports were affected by domestic political contradictions [80][82][84]. 3.5.5 Inventory - The total coking coal inventory increased slightly but is still at a low level compared to the same period last year. Mine inventory decreased, while steel mill and coking enterprise inventory increased due to strong restocking意愿 [86].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina is expected to fluctuate mainly in November. The supply surplus pattern will continue, with cost support potentially weakening, but there are expectations of production cuts later [7]. - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in November and still has room for an upward trend. Although downstream demand growth is limited and consumption overdraft is obvious, the macro - positive factors will continue [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite in China is sufficient, and the alumina supply surplus pattern will continue. The demand is at a high level, but the inventory is at a four - year high, which will continuously pressure prices. The cost support may weaken marginally, and it may oscillate in November [7]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The supply is strong, with the main production areas' operating rates remaining high and limited subsequent increments. The downstream demand is weak overall, but the macro - positive factors from the approaching end of the Fed's balance - sheet reduction will continue, and it may oscillate strongly in November [7]. 02 Bauxite Supply Situation Review and Outlook - **Domestic production**: In September, China's bauxite production was 551900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, at a medium - low level in the past four years. Output in Guangxi and Guizhou decreased month - on - month, while that in Henan increased [10]. - **Imports**: From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 158 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.27%. The impact of the rainy season has weakened, and subsequent imports may rebound [14]. - **Shipments by country**: In September, shipments from Australia to China decreased month - on - month, while those from Guinea increased, reaching 6 million tons but a year - on - year decrease of 29.22%. As of October 24, port inventory was 27.7177 million tons, at a medium - high level in the past six years [19]. 03 Alumina Fundamental Situation Review and Outlook - **Cost and profit**: In September, the production cost decreased to 2808.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit fell to about 289.8 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rates in Guangxi, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Guizhou increased overall [23][24]. - **Production volume**: In September, global metallurgical alumina production was 12.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.95%, and China's was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69%, both at the highest levels in the past six years [29]. - **Net exports**: From January to September, China maintained a net export status. In September, the net import volume was - 186400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90%, reaching the lowest level in the past six years [34]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, China's alumina inventory was 4.732 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.5%, and the inventory continued to accumulate [39]. 04 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Side Situation Review and Outlook - **Cost and profit**: In September, the electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased to 15918 yuan/ton, and the production profit rose to 4849 yuan/ton [44]. - **Production volume**: In September, global electrolytic aluminum production was 6.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%, and China's was 3.6796 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73%, at a high and the highest level in the past six years respectively [49]. - **Imports**: In October, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum decreased. In September, the import volume was 517400 tons, at the highest level in the past six years [54]. - **Inventory**: In September, the molten aluminum ratio rose to 73.71%. As of October 31, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 605000 tons, at a relatively low level in the past six years. LME aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline and was at the lowest level in the past six years [59][63]. 05 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption Review and Outlook - **Downstream sectors' operating rates**: In September, the aluminum profile operating rate dropped to 41.9% and will remain weak; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate rose to 73.99% [68][69]. - **Exports**: From January to September, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles was 652200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.82%; that of aluminum plates and strips was 2.2913 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.67%; that of aluminum foils was 1.0141 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.57%; and that of aluminum cables was 198200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.28% [73][78]. - **Real estate**: From January to September, the new construction area was 45400 hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%; the construction area was 648600 hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; and the completion area was 31100 hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%, with the decline rates of new construction and completion narrowing [83][88]. - **Automobiles**: From January to September, China's cumulative automobile production was 24.3022 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.23%. In September, the production was 3.2758 million vehicles, the sales were 3.2264 million vehicles, and the production - sales ratio dropped to 0.9849 [91]. - **New energy vehicles**: From January to September, the cumulative production was 11.2201 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 34.71%. In September, the production was 1.617 million vehicles, the sales were 1.604 million vehicles, and the production - sales ratio dropped to 0.992 [96]. - **Household appliances**: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of the production and sales of three major white - goods all narrowed slightly. The cumulative production of refrigerators increased by 3.05%, air conditioners by 4.74%, and washing machines by 9.61%. The cumulative sales of refrigerators increased by 3.19%, air conditioners by 5.56%, and washing machines by 8.87% [101]. - **Photovoltaic**: In September, China's cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 1126.51GW, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%, and the cumulative newly - added installed capacity was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%, with the year - on - year growth rate narrowing significantly [106].