油脂油料四季报： 油粕或先抑后扬，关注套利机会 2025年9月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点策略 0203 油脂油料行情回顾 全球油脂油料供需分析 04 国内油脂油料供需分析 01 观点策略 观点策略 供应：预计2025/26年度全球油籽延续供应偏宽松格局，主要是菜籽和葵籽产量恢复，大豆产量小幅增加。美豆种植面积减少， 但单产较高，已经开始收割，供应压力逐渐显现。阿根廷大豆种植面积下降，出现拉尼娜天气的概率较大，阿根廷大豆可能大幅减产。 巴西大豆种植面积增加，预计增产，弥补美豆和阿根廷大豆减产。四季度棕榈油进入季节性减产期，但今年马来西亚和印尼降雨量充 沛，从降雨量对产量的滞后影响来看，预计减产期产量下降幅度也不大，但若发生洪水灾害，则短期可能减产较大。当前马来西亚棕 榈油库存处于高位，印尼棕榈油库存偏低。全球菜籽和葵籽产量恢复，新季菜籽收割后，预计库存逐渐回升。国内方面，大豆进口量 较大，主要采购南美大豆，预计四季度供应偏宽松，棕榈油进口亏损较重，买船不积极，进口量偏低，油厂菜籽库存处于低位，对进 口加拿大油菜籽采用保证金形式实施临时反倾销措施，此前我国主要进口加拿大油菜籽，虽然近期增加澳大利亚的 ...

碳酸锂四季报 碳酸锂供需双增，价格围绕高位成本震荡 2025年9月30日 04 平衡与价格 碳酸锂供需双增，价格围绕高位成本震荡 主要观点 CONTENTS 目录 01 行情回顾 02 供给分析 03 需求分析 | | | 25年全球原生矿新增项目及产能充足，预计原生矿供给达166万吨LCE，同比增长22.26%，其中非洲维持 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 高增速增长，南美盐湖陆续爬坡，澳矿平稳增长；国内三季度受反内卷减产及枧下窝停产影响，江 | | | 供给 | 西、青海等锂云母、盐湖产区减产明显，而锂辉石进口大幅增加补充，四川等锂辉石产区产量 | | | | 占比达50%，整体国内供给仍持续增长；枧下窝锂矿1 1月复产存在不确定性，但现阶段冶炼产 | | | | 能充足，氢氧化锂产能补充，随着海外锂矿增产及进口，国内锂资源供应依旧充分。 | | | | 25年全球新能源汽车及储能需求依然可期，国内外仍有较多政策支持以及补贴，预计全球电车销量同比 +22%至2220万辆，国内同比+28%至1650万辆，叠加纯电占比提升3.7ptc以及单车带电量增加4.96kwh， | | | | ...

钢材四季度报： 成本有支撑，上方空间看政策 2025年9月 CONTENTS 目录 01 观点策略 02 03 04 宏观层面 价差 现货及基差 05 供应 06 需求 07 库存 01 观点策略 观点策略 第四季度，市场持续博弈政策预期。钢材供强需求，库存压力加大。煤炭"保供稳价"，钢材成本有支撑，上方空间有待钢铁 行业"稳增长"兑现，预计第四季度钢材区间偏强震荡。 供给端政策：粗钢减控；需求端政策：促消费、房地产政策、基建投资加快 风险点：政策不及预期、成材需求难起、出口或有转弱 注：评分代表主观判断，不构成投资建议。评分仅供参考。 观点策略 主要观点 | | 核心 | 钢材基本面仍偏弱：由于钢厂生产仍有利润空间，铁水产量维持高位，钢材供给压力较大；需求端，螺纹下游需求走弱，基建托底， 热卷需求有一定支撑，且出口较强，后续仍有待政策刺激；钢材持续累库，旺季去库节奏较缓，库存压力大。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 逻辑 | 预计第四季度仍为宏观政策主导行情。由于煤炭端有政策托底，预计钢材下方空间有限，但上方空间有待政策发力，预计第四季度 | | | | 钢材区间偏强震荡。 | | | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Alumina & Electrolytic Aluminum Q4 Report - Prices Approach Cost, Limited Decline for Alumina; Consumption May Be Overdrawn, Center of Electrolytic Aluminum Shifts Down [1] - Report Date: September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Alumina - In Q3, the alumina market was in a supply surplus. After a short - lived price increase due to market sentiment, prices dropped as the market returned to the surplus fundamentals. The supply is expected to remain ample in Q4, but prices are close to the cost line. If prices fall below the cost line, production cuts may occur, potentially leading to a rebound. Short - term strategy is to sell on rallies, while long - term investors can consider buying near the cost line [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In Q3, aluminum prices fluctuated between Fed rate - cut expectations and market fundamentals. Domestic production capacity is at a high level, but the growth in supply is limited. Demand is weakening, especially in the real estate sector. Although there is some support from the macro - environment, prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term and gradually decline in the long - term [6]. Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoint and Strategy Alumina - **Market Review**: In Q3, the alumina market was in surplus. After a price spike due to "anti - involution" sentiment, prices fell as the market reverted to surplus fundamentals [5]. - **Supply**: The supply outlook is bearish. Although Guinea's ore shipments decreased in Q3, Australia's increased, and port inventories continued to build up, supporting high alumina plant operating rates [5]. - **Demand**: Demand is expected to be range - bound. High electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization ensures a large demand for alumina, but the growth in demand is limited as electrolytic aluminum capacity nears the "capacity ceiling" [5]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is bearish. Profitable production led to strong output and continuous inventory accumulation. As of September 26, inventory was 4.505 million tons, up 13.82% year - on - year [5]. - **Outlook**: The outlook is slightly bullish. In Q4, as the rainy season in Guinea ends, ore supply will increase, and prices may decline slightly. If prices fall below the cost line, production cuts could narrow the surplus, and prices may rebound. Short - term strategy is to sell on rallies, and long - term investors can buy near the cost line [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: In Q3, aluminum prices oscillated between Fed rate - cut expectations and fundamentals, with strong resistance at the 20,800 level. After a short - lived rise in mid - September, prices fell back [6]. - **Supply**: Supply is bearish. Domestic production capacity is at a high level, but future supply growth is limited as capacity approaches the "ceiling" [6]. - **Demand**: Demand is bearish. Domestic demand is weak, especially in the real estate sector, and exports of major aluminum products remain sluggish [6]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is slightly bearish. With a lower proportion of molten aluminum, social inventory has been building up since July - September, reaching 614,000 tons as of September 26, a medium - level in the past six years [6]. - **Outlook**: The outlook is slightly bearish. Supply will continue to pressure prices, but there is a risk of power - rationing - induced production cuts in the southwest in Q4. Consumption, which was strong in the first half, shows signs of being overdrawn, and demand growth is expected to slow. The market expects loose monetary policy from the Fed, providing some macro - support. Prices will be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [6]. 02 Bauxite Supply Review and Outlook - **Domestic Bauxite**: In August, China's bauxite production was 5.87 million tons, up 4.82% year - on - year, at a medium level in the past four years. Output in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, and Shanxi increased from July - August, with Henan reaching a two - year high [9]. - **Imports**: In August, imports decreased month - on - month due to the rainy season in Guinea but remained at the highest level in the past six years. From January - August, cumulative imports were 141.7563 million tons, up 31.63% year - on - year, with a narrowing growth rate [13]. - **Country - Specific Shipments**: From July - August, shipments from Australia to China increased, while those from Guinea decreased, falling to 4.607 million tons in August. As of September 19, port inventory was 28.76 million tons, at a medium - high level in the past six years [17]. 03 Alumina Fundamental Review and Outlook - **Profit and Production**: From July - August, production costs were stable at around 2,852 yuan/ton, and profit was about 400 yuan/ton in August, dropping to 270 yuan/ton in mid - September. Except for Shanxi, capacity utilization increased in other regions [22]. - **Output**: In July, global metallurgical alumina output was 12.952 million tons, up 0.91% year - on - year, reaching a six - year high. In August, China's output was 7.878 million tons, up 12.53% year - on - year, also a six - year high [28]. - **Net Exports**: From January - August, China maintained a net - export status. In July, net imports were - 103,500 tons, and in August, - 86,100 tons, at a very low level in the past six years [33]. - **Inventory**: Since June, inventory has been building up due to ample supply and strong production. As of September 26, inventory was 4.505 million tons, up 13.82% year - on - year [36]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Since May, the market has been in surplus. Although Guinea's shipments decreased in the rainy season, Australian imports compensated, leading to strong output. If prices fall below the cost line in Q4, production cuts may narrow the surplus [40]. 04 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Review and Outlook - **Cost and Profit**: In August, although alumina prices fell, electrolytic aluminum production costs rose slightly to 16,111 yuan/ton, and profit decreased to 4,548 yuan/ton [42]. - **Output**: From July - August, global electrolytic aluminum output was 12.545 million tons, up 1.1% year - on - year, at a six - year high. China's output was 7.566 million tons, up 2.6% year - on - year, with August's output reaching a six - year high [45]. - **Imports**: From July - September, the Shanghai - London ratio declined, and in August, imports decreased month - on - month to 495,600 tons, up 16.9% year - on - year, at a relatively high level in the past six years [49]. - **Inventory**: From July - August, the proportion of molten aluminum was low, and social inventory has been building up since July - September, reaching 614,000 tons as of September 26, a medium - level in the past six years. SHFE and LME inventories also increased, weakening inventory support [52][56]. 05 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption Review and Outlook - **Downstream Industry**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The real - estate slump continued to drag down the aluminum - profile industry. In July - August, the operating rate decreased to 42.27% in August and is expected to remain weak [62]. - **Aluminum Sheets and Strips**: From July - August, the operating rate first fell and then rebounded to 70.97% in August, lower than the end of last year [62]. - **Exports**: Trade barriers persisted, and aluminum - product exports showed no significant improvement. Aluminum - profile, sheet - strip, and foil exports decreased year - on - year, while aluminum - cable exports increased but accounted for a small proportion [66][71]. - **End - User Markets**: - **Real Estate**: The real - estate market remained weak. From January - August, new - construction area, construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year, with the decline in completion area accelerating [76][81]. - **Automobiles**: From January - August, China's automobile production was 21.026 million vehicles, up 12.64% year - on - year, with a slightly narrowing growth rate. The sales - to - production ratio was 1.0149 in August, indicating a healthy market [85]. - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From January - August, production was 9.6031 million vehicles, up 36.76% year - on - year, with a slightly narrowing growth rate. The sales - to - production ratio was 1.0029 in August [89]. - **Home Appliances**: In Q3, as government subsidies were exhausted, the growth rate of white - goods sales slowed down [94]. - **Photovoltaic**: From January - August, cumulative installed capacity was 1117.23GW, up 48.5% year - on - year, with a narrowing growth rate. Cumulative new - installed capacity was 230.61GW, up 64.73% year - on - year, also with a narrowing growth rate [99]. 06 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In Q3, high production capacity utilization led to high output. With the inflow of Russian aluminum and weakening consumption, the market turned to a slight surplus. In Q4, there is a risk of power - rationing - induced production cuts in the southwest, and demand is expected to weaken further, leading to an increase in the surplus to about 129,000 tons [106].

聚烯烃产业四季报：供需结构逐步转 弱，关注逢高做空机会 2025年9月30日 观点摘要 | 品种 | 因素 | 情况 | 影响 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 成本端 | 夏季需求旺季过去，欧佩克+增产利空效应仍存，然而期间地缘政治局势的多变为油价带来扰动，进而对聚乙烯成本端的支撑不稳定， 难以为聚乙烯提供连续、明确的单边驱动支撑。 | 中性 | | | 生产利润 | LDPE和HDPE生产毛利回升，LLDEP生产毛利整体下滑。 | 利空 | | | 供应端 | 进入8月，PE产量爬升。四季度，聚乙烯企业装置检修涉及产能共258万吨，主要集中在11月和12月，但难以抵消新增产能（240万吨） | 利空 | | | | 与前期检修装置重启带来的供应增量。供应存在增加的趋势。 | | | | 进出口 | 三季度进口毛利整体表现环比回升，8月进口回落，预计四季度进口或有回升，但因我国自给率大幅提升而进口量少于往年同期。 | 中性 | | | 库存 | 三季度整体符合季节性规律。四季度，预计PE两油企业权益库存和贸易商权益库存按照往年季节性规律表现为先涨后跌，社会库存累 | 利多 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ will continue to increase production, with the first - stage production increase plan likely to end around autumn this year. Global crude oil supply surplus signs will gradually appear, bringing long - term bearish pressure on oil prices. However, oil prices may spike in the short - term due to geopolitical factors. Oil prices may remain under pressure in the second half of the year and perform weaker than in the first half [5][11]. Content Summaries Based on Related Catalogs OPEC+ Production Increase Plan - From October 2025, OPEC+ will implement a daily production adjustment of 137,000 barrels, far lower than the 555,000 barrels per day in August and September. The 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions, and will be carried out gradually [1]. - This year, OPEC+ has implemented multiple production increase plans. From April to September, the cumulative increase is 2.467 million barrels per day, covering the 2.2 million barrels per day reduction in 2024. The production increase in October will start the process of restoring the 1.66 million barrels per day reduction quota, originally planned to last until the end of 2026 [5]. Production Increase Execution - As of July, the actual production increase of OPEC+ was 916,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 66.8% of the latest production increase plan from April to July. The actual production increase from April to July was lower than the planned amount [7]. Oil Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Since late January, Brent crude oil has shown a volatile downward trend. Factors include OPEC+ maintaining production cuts, geopolitical tensions, US tariff policies, and OPEC+ production increase announcements [8]. - In August, due to the easing of geopolitical situations and continuous OPEC+ production increases, international crude oil prices oscillated at a low level [9]. Other Institutions' Views on Future Oil Prices - Deutsche Bank expects WTI crude oil price to stay at $62 per barrel, $3 lower than Brent [12]. - HSBC maintains its forecast of $65 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025, but the downside risk from increased market supply surplus is rising [12]. - SOCAR believes the biggest uncertainty in the current crude oil market comes from geopolitical risks [12]. - Capital Economics expects a large surplus in the oil market in Q4 this year and Brent crude to fall to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025 [12]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the oil supply surplus in 2026 will increase from 1.7 million barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, and the average prices of Brent and WTI crude will reach $56 and $52 per barrel respectively [14]. - S&P expects Brent crude to drop to about $55 per barrel by the end of the year [15].

氧化铝&电解铝9月报 "反内卷"情绪消退但预期仍存，氧化铝跌幅有限； 宏观支撑较强，但铝锭持续累库，电解铝震荡运行 2025年8月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 铝土矿供应情况回顾及展望 氧化铝基本面情况回顾及展望 04 电解铝供应端情况回顾及展望 05 电解铝下游及终端消费回顾及展望 01 观点与策略 观点与策略 | | 观点 核心逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应端，受几内亚雨季影响，几内亚港口出货量下跌，雨季影响显现，近期我国 震荡运行 | | | | 进口总量亦有所下滑，但目前我国铝土矿港口库存较高，整体供应仍然充足，氧 | | | | 化铝供应仍处过剩状态。需求端，国内电解铝产能继续高位运行，氧化铝下游需 | | | 氧化铝 | 求处于高位。氧化铝供应过剩格局持续，我国氧化铝库存持续累库，截至8月29 | | | | 日，我国氧化铝库存为431.6万吨，同比增长6.65%，库存持续回升。 | | | | 综合来看，几内亚雨季影响持续，但铝土矿供应充足，叠加生产利润可观，氧化 | | | | 铝供应过剩格局将持续，需求端已处于天花板级别，基本面 ...

钢材9月报： 钢价下方有支撑，上方看旺季需求 CONTENTS 目录 01 观点策略 02 03 04 宏观层面 价差 现货及基差 05 供应 06 需求 06 库存 01 观点策略 注：评分代表主观判断，不构成投资建议。评分仅供参考。 观点策略 主要观点 | | 核心 | 8月制造业PMI指数小幅回升，但仍低于50%；建筑业商务活动指数持续下调。基本面，钢材生产利润大幅下调，叠加阅兵限产，预计 钢材供给小幅走弱。需求端，建材有待观察专项债转化成基建实物工作量；卷材类，PMI中新订单和原料库存等均小幅走强，需求有 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 逻辑 | 一定支撑。库存端，钢材持续累库，螺纹仓单压力极大。 | | | | 进入传统旺季，有待关注成材端需求变化，以及钢材的去库拐点。 | | | 期现 | 现货：8月份钢材偏弱震荡，螺纹价格跌幅100元/吨左右，热卷价格跌幅约30元/吨。期货：螺纹钢10合约8月29日收盘价3090元/吨， | | | | 对比7月底跌幅3.59%。8月底螺纹钢基差180元/吨。对比7月底上升15元/吨。截至8月29日，热卷10合约收盘价3355元/吨，对比7月 ...

油脂粕类9月报： 油脂等待回调后做多，粕类区间震荡 2025年8月 C O N T E N T S 01 观点策略 目 录 02 2025年8月油脂粕类行情回顾 03 油脂油料基本面分析 04 套利价差跟踪 01 观点策略 观点策略 油脂主要观点 | | 美豆优良率维持高位，长势良好，未来15天美国大豆主产区降雨量略低于正常值，预计干旱扰动不大，9月份美豆将逐渐收割， | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应压力增加，目前中国尚未采购美豆，美豆存在较大的出口压力。巴西大豆出口高峰期已过，预计后续出口量逐渐减少，阿根廷 | | | | 下调大豆关税将有助于增加出口，7月份大豆出口量处于往年同期高位。EPA宣布了针对小型炼厂生物燃料豁免申请的处理结果，目 | | | | 前未公布是否将生物燃料义务重新分配给大型炼油商。CBOT大豆持续区间震荡，美豆油回调，预计9月份大豆进口量减少，油厂开 | | | | | 机率降低。 | | | 印尼棕榈油产量增幅较大，由于出口需求和国内消费量旺盛，库存处于往年同期低位；高频数据显示8月份马来西亚棕榈油产 | 核心 | | | 量环比变化不大，出口小幅增加， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and US tariff agreements impact metal prices. After the nickel price followed the anti - involution sentiment and declined, the industry chain's continuous losses still provide strong cost support. The fundamentals have changed little, with pure nickel remaining in an oversupply situation. In August, the production schedules of domestic electrowinning nickel and Indonesian secondary nickel continued to rise. During the traditional off - season, downstream demand was sluggish. Although there was an expectation of increased stainless - steel production in August, there were many disturbances from production cuts and maintenance due to policies, and the spot market transactions were weak. The improvement in the ternary industry chain was limited, with the growth rate of electric vehicle retail sales slowing down in July and the market share of ternary batteries being continuously squeezed by lithium iron phosphate. As the rainy season was coming to an end, nickel ore port inventories continued to accumulate, and there was an expectation of a decline in ore prices [10]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint and Strategy - **Main Viewpoints**: Macro factors and cost support affect nickel price; fundamentals show oversupply, and downstream demand is weak during the off - season [10]. - **Industry News**: In July 2025, GEM's Indonesian nickel project produced over 10,000 tons of nickel in a single month. Some steel mills actively controlled production in response to the national "anti - involution" policy, and northern steel mills planned maintenance from late August to early September [10]. - **Important Data**: This week, LME nickel inventory increased by 3150 tons, domestic inventory increased by 745 tons, and global visible nickel inventory increased by 1.57% to 253,000 tons. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price rose by $0.2 - 0.3, with a premium of +24 as the mainstream. In July, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74%, and the estimated production in August was 37,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.45%. In August, domestic stainless - steel production was scheduled to be 3.3041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.64% [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: For nickel, due to the increasing production capacity of Indonesian secondary nickel and domestic electrowinning nickel and the slowdown in off - season demand growth, the oversupply situation is expected to continue. In the long - term, the oversupply of nickel is difficult to reverse. In the short - term, affected by macro sentiment and cost support, it is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate in the range of [117,000, 125,000] yuan/ton, and a sell - on - rally strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, the current anti - involution production cuts still support the stainless - steel market. However, in the long - term, the oversupply will suppress price increases. It is expected that SHFE stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of [12,300, 13,200] yuan/ton, and short - selling is recommended when the price rebounds to the upper end of the range [10]. 02盘面回顾 - Nickel prices continued to fluctuate, and relevant data on domestic liquidity positions, spot premiums, and price differences between the two markets were presented [12][13]. 03 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: Nickel ore ports saw inventory accumulation, and ore prices remained stable. The mainstream transaction price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines was mostly CIF42, and that from the Philippines to Indonesia was mostly CIF41. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price rose by $0.2 - 0.3 [16][17]. - **Nickel Iron**: In July, the total production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia was 178,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year increase of 20.61%. The market quotation for nickel iron was firm, with the mainstream price ranging from 930 - 940 yuan/nickel [21]. - **Intermediate Products**: In July, nickel intermediate products increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 54,400 tons. The price followed the increase in nickel prices, the production cost of nickel sulfate increased, and the loss situation worsened [25]. - **Imports**: In June, nickel iron imports increased significantly, while intermediate product imports decreased [28]. - **Inventory**: This week, LME inventory increased by 3150 tons to 212,200 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 745 tons to 39,300 tons. Spot transactions were generally cold [32]. - **Electrowinning Nickel**: In July, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. The estimated production in August was 37,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.45%. There were also detailed plans for domestic and Indonesian electrowinning nickel projects [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Some steel mills planned production cuts and maintenance. The loss of integrated production narrowed, and the economic efficiency of scrap stainless steel became more prominent. Stainless - steel inventory continued to decline, but the social inventory was still high. Demand was weak due to the real - estate downturn and the traditional off - season [40][44][51]. - **Ternary Industry Chain**: In August, the production of lithium batteries increased, and the production of the ternary industry chain also increased, but the improvement in demand was limited [56]. - **Electric Vehicles**: In the first half of the year, domestic electric vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively, with a sales penetration rate of 44.3%. The share of ternary batteries was squeezed by lithium iron phosphate [60]. 04 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The global nickel supply surplus is expected to expand year - on - year. In 2025E, the total supply is estimated to be 389.3 million tons, while the total demand is 354.5 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 34.8 million tons. In China, the supply surplus is also expected to be 16.2 million tons in 2025 [70].