聚烯烃产业周度报告： 暂时缺乏利好驱动，塑料略优于PP，关 注塑料-PP价差震荡上行机会 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点小结 02 下周关注 04 聚丙烯重点数据追踪 03 聚乙烯重点数据追踪 05 价差跟踪 01 观点策略 观点小结 | 项目 | 聚乙烯PE | | --- | --- | | 成本 | 地缘政治溢价暂时离场。欧佩克+八个成员国决定在八月份增产54.8万桶/日，高于市场预期，增产给予油价压力延续，最新一周EIA美国原油 | | | 库存录得超预期累库。需求上，美国传统燃油消费旺季有带动终端需求增长预期，但目前估算的成品油裂解价差表现尚未有起色，美国成品 | | | 油库存录得超预期大幅增加，加上美国对等关税暂停期即将结束，全球关税贸易风波对需求仍有隐忧。整体来看，利空因素较多，原油价格 | | | 或拐头下滑，对塑料等化工品支撑不足。（▼） | | 供应 | 虽然当前产量仍处于近年高位水平，周度产能利用率和产量环比增加。不过前期检修装置重启预期不大且有装置检修，对价格有支撑。（▲） | | 需求 | PE下游开工整体小跌且仍低于往年同期，需求淡季氛围延续，终端消费维持随用随采，下游订 ...

| 一、 | 纯苯是什么？ | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、 | 纯苯生产工艺和产业链 | 2 | | 三、 | 纯苯储存运输和质量标准 | 5 | | 四、 | 全球纯苯的供需概况 | 6 | | 五、 | 我国纯苯供应情况 | 7 | | 六、 | 我国纯苯进出口情况 | 10 | | 七、 | 我国纯苯需求情况 | 10 | | 八、 | 纯苯的定价模式 | 16 | | 九、 | 纯苯供需差预估 | 16 | | | 免责声明 18 | | 2025 年 6 月 26 日 一、纯苯是什么？ 纯苯一般指苯（英文：Benzene），是石油化工的基本原料之一，也是一种危 化品，其化学式为 C6H6。 按照来源不同，纯苯分为石油苯和焦化苯，其中石油苯品质比较纯净，纯度 在 99%以上；焦化苯是煤炭炼焦过程中提取的，是酸洗苯、精制苯和加氢苯的统 称，纯度低于 96%。石油苯比焦化苯杂质少、应用较广，行业一般默认纯苯即石 油纯苯。 纯苯作为基础化工原料，其用途极为广泛，不仅作为关键中间体用于合成苯 乙烯（塑料和橡胶制造核心原料）、己内酰胺（尼龙 6 生产原料）、苯酚（酚醛树 脂及药品合 ...

铝产业周报 氧化铝震荡偏弱，电解铝或高位回落，铝合金维持震荡运行 2025年6月13日当周 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 盘面回顾 氧化铝&电解铝重点数据追踪 04 铝合金重点数据追踪 01 观点策略 观点策略 中美会谈释放良好信号，伦铝先涨后跌，环比上周涨幅2.1%；沪铝持续上涨，环比上周涨 幅1.84%。 沪铝主力合约收盘价（元/吨）；伦铝收盘价（美元/吨） 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000 20500 21000 21500 22000 2023/07/25 2023/11/25 2024/03/25 2024/07/25 2024/11/25 2025/03/25 SHFE铝 LME铝 数据来源：Mysteel、佛山金控期货研究部 盘面表现回顾 | | 观点 | 核心逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 氧化铝 | 震荡偏弱 | 综合来看，我国铝土矿整体供应偏紧局面因进口矿石补充逐渐缓解；海内外铝土矿价 | | ...

氧化铝&电解铝6月报 几内亚扰动告一段落，氧化铝震荡偏弱；库存支撑较强，电解铝震荡偏强 2025年5月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 盘面表现回顾 铝产业链供应情况 04 铝产业下游与终端表现情况 05 铝产业库存 01 观点与策略 观点策略 | | 观点 核心逻辑 | | --- | --- | | | 供应端，几内亚取消40多家企业采矿许可，一度让氧化铝价格涨至3200以上，但 震荡偏弱 | | | 实际影响有限；几内亚发运量维持强势，海外矿石供应持续走强，缓解国内铝土 | | | 矿供应偏紧局面。需求端，丰水期将至，西南地区有部分电解铝产能复产，但目 | | 氧化铝 | 前电解铝产能利用率已超96%，增长空间不大，氧化铝需求增量有限。国内氧化 | | | 铝行业库存处于近四年同期最低位，低价格底部有一定支撑。综合来看，铝土矿 | | | 整体供应逐步走向宽松，将持续对价格施压；海内外铝土矿价格延续偏弱态势， | | | 氧化铝成本亦难以上涨。预计氧化铝6月仍将维持震荡偏弱态势，反弹空间有限， | | | 运行区间参考【2800-3400】，以逢高沽空思路为主。 | | 电解铝 ...

钢材6月报： 需求预期有限，成本支撑下移，钢价弱势震荡 CONTENTS 目录 观点策略 01 观点策略 02 03 04 宏观层面 价差 现货及基差 05 供应 06 需求 06 库存 01 观点策略 观点策略 钢材需求预期偏弱，成本端支撑下移，短期内宏观政策预期有限，预计6月份钢材偏弱震荡。 注：评分代表主观判断，不构成投资建议。评分仅供参考。 主要观点 | | 核心 | 宏观层面，5月国内制造业PMI低于荣枯线；美联储降息节奏放缓，特朗普加征钢铁进口至50%，对国内钢材出口影响有限。基本面， 供给端，由于钢厂尚有利润空间，铁水产量小幅下调但维持高位，上周螺纹和热卷产量环比下调；需求端，由于南方进入雨季，需 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 逻辑 | 求持续偏弱；热卷利润小于螺纹，关税政策缓和后有待观望需求变化。库存端，厂库和社库持续去库，供应商接货意愿偏弱。 焦炭仍有提降预期，维持关注其对于成材成本支撑。 | | | 期现 | 现货：5月份钢材现货价格呈震荡下跌走势。期货：螺纹钢10合约5月30日收盘价2961元/吨，对比4月底下跌135元/吨，跌幅4.36%。 基差159元/吨，对比 ...

油脂粕类6月报： 油脂震荡运行，粕类反弹空间有限 2025年5月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点策略 0203 2025年5月油脂粕类行情回顾 油脂油料基本面分析 01 观点策略 观点策略 | | | 预计2025/26年度全球大豆延续供应宽松，虽然美豆种植面积减少，产量下降，但巴西大豆产量可能创纪录高位。目前美国大 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 豆主产区天气良好，大豆种植进度偏快。巴西大豆收割完成，处于出口高峰期，CNF升贴水小幅下降，阿根廷大豆收割进度较慢， | | | | 预计后续降雨量减少，大豆收割加快推进。国内大豆大量到港，周度压榨量超200万吨，豆油逐渐累库。目前美豆生长情况较好， | | | | 美国生柴政策可能不及预期，CBOT大豆和豆油震荡偏弱，后续关注美豆主产区天气和美国生柴政策。 | | | 核心 | 棕榈油处于季节性增产期，但高频数据显示马来西亚5月份棕榈油产量仅小幅增加，而出口需求改善，预示5月份马来西亚棕 | | | 逻辑 | 榈油累库幅度较小。印度植物油库存偏低，存在进口需求，提振马棕出口。国内棕榈油库存维持低位，预计后续进口量逐渐增加。 | | ...

氧化铝&电解铝5月报 供应宽松，氧化铝震荡偏弱；库存支撑较强，电解铝震荡偏强 2025年4月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 盘面表现回顾 铝产业链供应情况 04 铝产业下游与终端表现情况 05 铝产业库存 01 观点与策略 观点策略 | | 观点 | 核心逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 供应端，随着澳大利亚雨季结束，铝土矿发运量回升，海外矿石供应持续走强； | | | | 晋豫地区矿山逐步复产，后续国内铝土矿供应偏紧局面或逐渐缓解，我国铝土矿 | | | | 供应整体继续往宽松状态转变，海内外铝土矿价格将延续回落态势。需求端，西 | | | | 南地区水力发电量较高，水量充足，五月下旬或逐步复产，但目前电解铝产能利 | | 氧化铝 | 震荡偏弱 | 用率已超96%，增长空间不大，氧化铝需求增量有限。国内氧化铝行业库存处于 | | | | 近四年同期最低位，低价格底部有一定支撑。综合来看，我国铝土矿整体供应逐 | | | | 步走向宽松，将持续对价格施压；海内外铝土矿价格延续回落态势，氧化铝成本 | | | | 持续下跌，生产利润维持小幅亏损状态。预计氧化 ...

铁矿石期货 5月报： 钢材利润压缩，铁矿弱势震荡 CONTENTS 目录 01 观点策略 02 03 04 宏观层面 价差 现货及基差 05 供给 06 需求 07 库存 01 观点策略 观点策略 宏观端，关税事件暂退潮，国内政策择时发力，粗钢减控预期仍存。基本面，钢厂利润收缩，随着成材需求走弱，铁矿石需求 下降；库存端压力较小。预计铁矿石5月震荡偏弱走势，重点关注成材需求情况。 注：评分代表主观判断，不构成投资建议。评分仅供参考。 观点策略 主要观点 | | 核心 | 基本面，成材仍有一定利润空间，短期内钢厂铁水产量维持高位，短期铁矿石需求不弱；供给端外矿发运恢复正常；库存端，钢厂 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 逻辑 | 按需采购为主，疏港量高于往年，节前或有补库需求，港口库存压力较小。目前钢材供需矛盾持续积累中，预计5月下旬钢厂面临利 | | | | 润压力减产。宏观层面，粗钢减控预期仍存，铁矿石中长期需求偏弱。 | | | 期现 | 现货方面：4月份铁矿石价格降幅在1-22元/湿吨不等，中品铁粉价格跌幅约10元/吨。期货方面：截至4月25日，铁矿石09合约收盘 价709元/吨，对比 ...

2025年4月 CONTENTS 目录 01 观点策略 02 03 04 宏观层面 价差 现货及基差 05 供应 06 需求 07 库存 钢材二季度报： 需求主导行情，上下方空间均有限 01 观点策略 观点策略 目前钢材以需求主导行情，4月建材需求有待验证，第二季度家电、设备、汽车等决定卷材需求。钢材库存压力不大，由于生产 利润尚可，预计供给端后续有一定压力，钢材第二季度弱势震荡走势。 注：评分代表主观判断，不构成投资建议。评分仅供参考。 观点策略 主要观点 | | | 宏观层面，特朗普关税政策加剧全球贸易壁垒，国内方面，短期内政策预期有限。基本面来看，建材需求持续恢复，但是预计上方 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 核心 | 空间有限；卷材类由于"两新"政策刺激，虽然出口受阻，但是需求仍较为坚挺。供给端，由于钢厂利润尚可，因此铁水产量维持 | | | | 高位，有一定供给压力。库存端，钢材持续去库，库存压力不大。 | | | 逻辑 | 目前钢材主要交易逻辑在于需求，市场博弈4月北方地区建材需求空间，以及制造业对卷材的支撑。预计第二季度钢材偏弱势震荡， | | | | 下方支撑在成本位，上方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic during the Two Sessions dominates, with intensified long - short gaming in the market. The fundamentals of iron ore have no major contradictions, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The 05 contract of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within the range of [740 - 840] [7][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - **Overall Situation**: The trading logic during the Two Sessions is dominant, and the iron ore market has intensified long - short gaming. The fundamentals are not weak, and the 05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 740 - 840 yuan/ton [7][10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply side - the shipments from Australia and Brazil have recovered, and the near - term arrivals may decline. Demand side - steel mills have decent profits, iron - water production is expected to increase slightly, and the demand for iron ore is not weak. Inventory - port inventory is at a high level, but the inventory pressure is not large [10]. - **Spot and Futures**: In February, the spot price of iron ore oscillated slightly higher, with medium - and low - grade iron powder prices rising by about 10 yuan/wet ton. As of February 28, the closing price of the main iron ore contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.36%. The basis on the 28th was 2.5 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening [10]. - **Spread**: The spread between DCE and SGX iron ore in February was around 30 yuan/ton, up from January and at the historical average level. As of the end of February, the rebar - iron ore spread (05 contract) was 2528.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton compared with the end of January; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.16, a decrease of 0.01 compared with the end of January [10]. - **Supply**: The shipments of the four major mines have recovered rapidly, and the near - term arrivals have decreased. In February, the domestic mine production increased [10]. - **Demand**: Steel mills' production profits are decent, but production is cautious. The iron - water production is maintained at around 228 tons/day, and the weekly consumption of imported iron ore is around 280 - 285 tons/day [10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is at a high level, and the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The port dredging volume has increased slightly [10]. - **Strategy**: Conduct range - bound operations on the 05 contract of iron ore within the range of [740 - 840] [10]. 3.2 Macro Level - **Construction - Project Fund Availability**: As of February 25, the sample construction site fund availability was 56.47%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points. The fund availability of non - housing construction and housing construction projects has improved, with non - housing construction showing a slightly better improvement [13]. - **Construction - Cement and Concrete Outbound Volume**: In February, the cement outbound volume increased continuously. As of the week of February 28, the weekly cement outbound volume was 156.6 tons, an increase of 129.48 tons compared with the week of February 7. The concrete shipment volume increased gradually, but the increase was significantly smaller than that of cement [16]. - **Infrastructure - Cement Direct Supply Volume**: In February, the infrastructure cement direct supply volume increased significantly, rising from 2 tons/week at the beginning of the month to 80 tons/week at the end of the month. The asphalt sales volume doubled [19]. - **Manufacturing - PMI Index**: In February, the manufacturing PMI index was 50.2%, a rebound of 1.1 percentage points from January. The March production plan of three major white - goods was 40.5 million units, a month - on - month increase of 38.98% and higher than the historical average [21]. 3.3 Spot and Basis - **Black Sector Commodity Prices**: In February, steel prices oscillated more violently, with slight declines in rebar and hot - rolled coil prices. Iron ore prices were relatively firm, while coke prices were lowered in three rounds [25]. - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: In February, the iron ore spot price oscillated slightly higher. Except for high - grade iron powder, the prices of medium - and low - grade iron powder increased by about 10 yuan/wet ton [30]. - **Iron Ore Futures Price**: As of February 28, the closing price of the main iron ore contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.36%. The basis on the 28th was 2.5 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening [33]. - **Iron Ore Position**: In February, the single - sided position of iron ore first increased and then decreased, reaching a maximum of 935,000 lots on February 21 [36]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The Back curve of iron ore prices moved down, and the curve became steeper. The 1 - 5 spread and 5 - 9 spread widened slightly [40][43]. 3.4 Spread - **Cross - market Spread**: The spread between DCE and SGX iron ore in February was around 30 yuan/ton, up from January and at the historical average level [47]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: As of the end of February, the rebar - iron ore spread (05 contract) was 2528.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton compared with the end of January; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.16, a decrease of 0.01 compared with the end of January. The arbitrage opportunity between rebar and iron ore is limited [49]. 3.5 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: As of the week of February 28, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.954 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.285 million tons, an increase of 10.71%. The Australian and Brazilian shipment volume was 27.376 million tons, an increase of 1.622 million tons, an increase of 6.3% [52]. - **Four Major Mines' Shipment to China**: As of the week of February 28, the shipment of the four major mines to China was 19.228 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,000 tons, a decrease of 0.18% [56]. - **47 - Port Arrival Volume**: As of the week of February 28, the 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 18.861 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.89 million tons, a decrease of 17.1% [60]. - **Domestic Mine Supply**: In February, the capacity utilization rate and production of domestic mines increased [62][65]. 3.6 Demand - **Iron - water Production**: In February, the daily average iron - water production was around 2.28 million tons, and the weekly consumption of imported iron ore was around 2.8 - 2.85 million tons/day [68]. - **Blast Furnace Operation**: In February, the blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel enterprises was around 78%, and the capacity utilization rate was around 85.5% [70]. - **Steel Mill Profit**: In February, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises was around 50%. The profit of blast - furnace rebar production was relatively high, while the profit of electric - furnace steel production decreased [73][78]. 3.7 Inventory - **Domestic Mine Inventory**: As of the week of February 28, the iron ore concentrate inventory of 126 and 186 mining enterprises increased slightly compared with the beginning of the month, but remained at a low level [91]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: As of the week of February 28, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 91.6719 million tons, a decrease of 2.9755 million tons compared with the beginning of February [94]. - **Port Inventory**: As of the week of February 28, the 47 - port iron ore inventory was 157.564 million tons, a decrease of 2.4628 million tons compared with the beginning of the month [97]. - **Dredging Volume**: As of the week of February 28, the average daily dredging volume of 45 ports was 2.9883 million tons, an increase of 301,600 tons/day compared with the beginning of February [100].