1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent strong rebound in the global nickel market is mainly driven by the news that Indonesia's nickel ore quota has been significantly reduced to 2.5 billion tons. However, whether the long - term supply - surplus and weak - demand fundamental pattern of the global nickel market has changed remains to be seen [1]. - Indonesia's industrial policy changes have a significant impact on global nickel prices. The country aims to support nickel prices, ensure national revenue, and guide the industry towards high - value - added development through policies such as RKAB and tax policies [1][8]. - The nickel market's short - term trend is dominated by "policy expectations" and "fund sentiment", while the long - term trend depends on whether the supply - surplus pattern can be reversed [40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Driver Analysis: Indonesia's "Visible Hand" and Market Game - Indonesia dominates the global nickel supply chain. In 2024, its nickel ore reserves accounted for about 42% of the global total, and its production accounted for 59%. In 2024, its total nickel metal production capacity reached 3.22 million tons. In 2025, the production of nickel iron, intermediate products, and electrowon nickel in Indonesia is expected to account for 68.5% of the global total [1]. - Indonesia's nickel ore policy has shifted from encouraging investment expansion to active regulation. The core is to support nickel prices and guide the industry towards high - value - added development through RKAB and tax policies [8]. - The significant reduction of the 2026 RKAB quota to 2.5 billion tons is the direct trigger for the price rebound. The Indonesian government's motives include stabilizing prices, strengthening control, and correcting market expectations [10]. - The 2.5 - billion - ton production target for 2026 has taken effect, but its implementation has some flexibility. The final quota may be between 280 million and 320 million tons [11][12][14]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation: Structural Changes under the Cloud of Surplus - The fundamental pattern of the nickel market restricts the upside space of prices. In 2026, Indonesia's low - cost nickel resources will still be the core of growth, and the expansion cycle of the raw material supply side is approaching the end [15]. - Global downstream demand is expected to remain stable in the medium - to - long term, lacking growth highlights. The dominant stainless - steel demand is dragged down by the domestic real - estate market, and the share of ternary batteries is being squeezed by lithium iron phosphate [16]. - The market has a consistent expectation of global nickel resource surplus in the next two years. If Indonesia's nickel ore quota is fully implemented, the supply - demand pattern may reverse [22][26]. 3.3 Strategic Resource Control Struggle: Geopolitical and Key Mineral Resource Industry Chain Reconstruction - Geopolitical events are reshaping the global rare/non - ferrous metal industry chain in three aspects: strategic intention weaponization, supply - chain "camp - building" and "de - Chinaization", and a fundamental change in investment logic [28]. 3.4 Short - term Technical Analysis and Fund Driving - Technically, nickel prices have shown typical strong - breakthrough features, with multiple indicators sending bullish signals. The rebound is strongly driven by funds, and the market sentiment and position structure have changed significantly [32][34]. 3.5 Later Market Judgment and Strategy Suggestions - The short - term market is dominated by "policy expectations" and "fund sentiment". In the long term, it depends on whether the supply - surplus pattern can be reversed [40]. - If the policy expectation is partially falsified, the supply - surplus pattern will regain the upper hand, and nickel prices are likely to return to the downward channel [40]. - If the 2.5 - billion - ton production target is strictly implemented or there are supply risks in other regions, the nickel price center may move up in 2026, but it is unlikely to return to the 2023 average [41]. - Strategy suggestions include paying attention to price - fluctuation risks, global supply - chain risks, and the long - term strategic value of nickel. If the Indonesian policy falls short of expectations, a "sell - high" strategy can be adopted [42].

2026 年展望—碳酸锂年报 佛山金控期货 研究部 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2013】193 号 人员：冯文勇 期货从业资格号：F03147404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017200 联系方式：0757-86296271 地址：佛山市南海区桂城街 道永胜西路 22 号新凯广场 2 座39 楼 佛山金控期货网址：http:// www.fsjkqh.com/ 碳酸锂年报：供需平衡逆转，锂价重心上移 内容摘要： 全球锂资源供给保持快速增长（+24%）：2025 年海外上半年高成本 矿山减产以及国内下半年反内卷政策及矿权减产影响明显，今明两年 新增待投项目产能合计超 40 万吨，利润恢复使项目释放加速，南美、 非洲以及中国等地是主要增量来源，预计 2026 年全球锂资源供应量 达 209 万吨 LCE，同比增长约 24.4%，其中国内锂原生供给同比+51% 至 47 万吨 LCE，国内碳酸锂产量预计同比+38.86%至 134.7 万吨 LCE。 储能需求前景爆发增长（+51%）：全球储能需求快速增长主要受电网 消纳压力、光伏配储以及 AI 数据需求驱动，中国、欧洲、美国以及 中东均迎来确定性的高速增长期，国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the report expects the overall trend of oils and fats to be oscillating upward, but currently lacks strong drivers. Without positive macro - capital support, the upside potential for oils and fats is limited. It also suggests paying attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and shorting rapeseed oil in the first quarter due to the abundant rapeseed harvest and palm oil inventory reduction [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - CBOT soybeans are unlikely to fall below 1000 cents per bushel. If the U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable, it is expected to oscillate upward. Palm oil prices are unlikely to break through 10,000 yuan per ton. Rapeseed oil will be under pressure in the first half of the year. The overall trend of oils and fats is expected to be oscillating upward, but the upside potential is limited. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and shorting rapeseed oil in the first quarter [8]. - The main influencing factors include South American weather, trade policies, biodiesel policies, and Indonesian palm oil production [9]. 3.2 2025 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Market Review 3.2.1 Oils and Fats Unilateral Review - In 2025, the overall trend of oils and fats was slightly upward with oscillations, showing a differentiated trend. Palm oil prices were volatile, with significant drops in October. U.S. soybean oil prices rose significantly, while rapeseed oil prices fell due to abundant supply. The market was affected by various factors such as USDA reports, U.S. biodiesel policies, and geopolitical conflicts [12][15]. 3.2.2 Oils and Fats Spread Review - The spreads between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil changed throughout the year, affected by factors such as palm oil seasonal production, global rapeseed production, and anti - dumping investigations [20]. 3.2.3 Protein Meal Unilateral Review - Protein meal prices were volatile, affected by factors such as USDA reports, U.S. tariff policies, and soybean import volumes. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends at different times [23]. 3.2.4 Protein Meal Spread Review - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal mainly oscillated between 350 - 550, with significant changes in March, April, August, and November, affected by tariff policies and anti - dumping investigations [27]. 3.3 Global Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Global Oilseeds - Global oilseeds are in abundant supply with variety differentiation. In the 2025/26 period, the total global oilseed production is expected to be 690.255 million tons, an increase of 5.75 million tons year - on - year. The production of soybeans decreased by 4.613 million tons, while the production of rapeseed increased by 9.274 million tons [31][32]. - Global vegetable oils are expected to see a slight reduction in inventory, while the inventory of protein meals will remain largely unchanged. In the 2025/26 period, the global vegetable oil production is expected to be 233.288 million tons, an increase of 3.732 million tons year - on - year, and the inventory will decrease by 0.393 million tons. The global protein meal production is expected to be 393.578 million tons, an increase of 7.538 million tons year - on - year, and the inventory will remain basically the same [35][37]. 3.3.2 Soybean Series - Global soybean production is decreasing and inventory is being reduced. In the 2025/26 period, the global soybean production is 422.541 million tons, a decrease of 4.613 million tons year - on - year. The production in the U.S. decreased by 3.296 million tons, while that in Brazil increased by 3.5 million tons, and that in Argentina decreased by 2.608 million tons [41]. - U.S. soybean production decreased, and the planting cost increased slightly. The planting area decreased by 6.2 million acres, and the production decreased by 121 million bushels. The estimated planting cost in 2026 is 678.25 dollars per acre [44]. - U.S. soybean crushing demand is strong, and the export proportion is decreasing. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated crushing volume is 2.555 billion bushels, an increase of 4.50% year - on - year, and the export volume is expected to decrease by 6.73 million tons [50][54]. - Brazil's soybean planting area is increasing, and the production and export volume are expected to increase. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 177 million tons, an increase of 3.29% year - on - year, and the export volume and crushing volume are expected to increase [56][66]. - Argentina's soybean production is expected to decrease slightly, but the export volume increased significantly in 2024/25 due to abundant production and reduced export taxes. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 48.5 million tons, a decrease from the previous year [70][74]. 3.3.3 Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production increased in 2025, but exports were weak, and inventory accumulated to a high level. The production from January to November was 18.4541 million tons, an increase of 3.38% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.41% [83][87]. - Indonesia's palm oil production increased in 2025, and the inventory remained low. The production from January to September was 43.34 million tons, an increase of 11.31% year - on - year. The export volume increased, and domestic consumption also increased [99][106]. 3.3.4 Rapeseed and Sunflower Seeds - Global rapeseed production is abundant, and supply is sufficient. In the 2025/26 period, the global rapeseed production is expected to be 95.273 million tons, an increase of 9.274 million tons year - on - year. The期末 inventory increased by 2.65 million tons to 12.5 million tons [110][111]. - Global sunflower seed production decreased slightly, and sunflower oil inventory continued to be reduced. In the 2025/26 period, the global sunflower seed production is expected to be 51.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons year - on - year, and the sunflower oil inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons to 2.28 million tons [136]. 3.3.5 Oils and Fats Demand - Global vegetable oil consumption is increasing year by year. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated consumption is 227.94 million tons, with edible consumption accounting for 71.54% and industrial consumption accounting for 28.00% [141]. - India's vegetable oil demand is increasing year by year, and the import volume is expected to be large in the first quarter of 2026 due to low inventory and Ramadan stocking demand [145]. - U.S. biodiesel production and sales decreased significantly in 2025, but the production is expected to increase in the future. The U.S. biodiesel policy is still uncertain, and it may increase the demand for 1.5 million tons of soybean oil [149][154]. - Indonesia's biodiesel demand is increasing, and the implementation of B50 is expected to increase the demand for 3 million tons of CPO, but it is unlikely to be implemented before 2027. The implementation of B45 may increase the demand for 1.6 million tons of CPO [158][159]. - Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio is continuously increasing, and the demand for soybean oil is expected to increase significantly. If the blending ratio increases to 16% in 2026, it is expected to increase the demand for 400,000 tons of soybean oil [163]. - The production of biodiesel in the EU increased slightly, but the use of vegetable oils decreased, and the use of UCO, animal fats, and other raw materials increased [166][167]. - The global use of vegetable oils for biodiesel production is continuously increasing [171]. 3.4 Domestic Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Supply - Demand Analysis - The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the import volume is expected to increase in the 2025/26 period. The import volume from January to November 2025 was 103.78 million tons, an increase of 6.89% year - on - year. The estimated import volume in the 2025/26 period is 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year [176]. - The domestic palm oil import volume was low in 2025, and the inventory is expected to decline [187]. - The domestic rapeseed import volume decreased significantly in 2025, and the supply of rapeseed is expected to be tight in the 2025/26 period. The import volume from January to November 2025 was 2.4479 million tons, a decrease of 57.67% year - on - year [192]. - The inventory trends of the three major oils and fats are differentiated. As of the 51st week, the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, an increase of 17.90% year - on - year; the palm oil inventory was 700,000 tons, an increase of 30.01% year - on - year; and the rapeseed oil inventory was 303,000 tons, a decrease of 27.65% year - on - year [197]. - The demand for protein meals is expected to decrease due to the reduction of pig and poultry farming capacity [201][206]. - The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is continuously being reduced [209]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Supply: Globally, focus on whether the expected abundant South American soybean harvest is realized and whether the palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia can remain high. Domestically, focus on China - U.S. and China - Canada trade policies [213][214]. - Oils and Fats Demand: Globally, the consumption of oils and fats is increasing year by year. The growth of edible consumption mainly depends on India, and the growth of biodiesel consumption mainly depends on the biodiesel policies of Indonesia, the U.S., and Brazil [216]. - Protein Meal Demand: The demand for protein meals is expected to decrease due to the reduction of pig and poultry farming capacity. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are mainly affected by external oilseed prices [219].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price of electrolytic copper may show an inverted "V" trend throughout the year. It may fluctuate strongly in the first half of the year, challenging new highs, and weakly in the second half. The volatility of copper prices is expected to converge to a limited extent, and call options remain highly suitable. The main influencing factors include the Fed's monetary policy, Sino - US relations, changes in copper concentrate TC, and energy storage demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Market Review - In 2025, copper prices showed a generally strong and fluctuating trend. By December 10, the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract had risen by nearly 25% during the year. The copper futures market went through four stages: in the first stage (January - March), the first wave of price increase was driven by the tightening supply of copper concentrate and the market's expectation of rising US inflation. In the second stage (April - mid - September), after hitting bottom, the price rebounded and then consolidated for a long time, affected by trade wars, Fed rate - cut expectations, and other factors. In the third stage (late September - mid - November), the second wave of price increase occurred due to the supply shortage of copper concentrate and positive market news. In the fourth stage (mid - November - present), the price repeatedly broke through historical highs, driven by market concerns about the Fed's future policies [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Outlook 3.2.1 Fed Policy May Remain Loose - In 2025, the Fed's policy experienced multiple adjustments, including rate cuts and the end of the balance - sheet reduction plan. Looking ahead, according to the dot - plot after the December meeting, there is still one rate cut expected in 2026 and 2027. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and the independence of the Fed after Powell's term ends [11][12]. 3.2.2 Sino - US Game Will Continue - In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes went through several rounds of escalation and mitigation. The US used tariff hikes as a bargaining chip. In the future, Sino - US tariff disputes are expected to continue, and the US may focus on issues such as fentanyl and rare - earth exports [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side: Emerging Demands Show Obvious Increases and May Explode in 2026 3.3.1 Traditional Industries Have Limited Growth - **Real Estate Remains in a Downturn**: In 2025, despite a series of policies, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion data continued to decline. In 2026, although the government will continue to promote real - estate stability policies, the real - estate market is expected to continue to drag down copper demand in the short term [16][19]. - **White Goods Production and Sales First Strong Then Weak**: In 2025, with the support of the "trade - in" policy, white - goods production and sales were strong in the first half of the year but weakened later. In 2026, with the possible continuation of the policy and the replacement cycle, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales of three major white goods is expected to be higher than in 2025. However, the year - on - year growth rate of exports of white goods has declined overall compared to last year, and its contribution to copper demand growth has weakened [23][24]. 3.3.2 Emerging Demands Will Gradually Become the Main Force of Copper Demand - **AI and Computing Power May Boost Future Power Grid Demand**: In 2025, power and grid infrastructure investment showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In the future, AI and computing - power industries will become important demand drivers for power and grid infrastructure [29]. - **New - energy Vehicles Provide Stable Increases Despite Slower Growth**: In 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales maintained a relatively high year - on - year growth rate, providing stable copper demand. In 2026, although the subsidy for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32][34]. - **Photovoltaic Installation in China Has Stable Increases and Exports Are Impressive**: In 2025, due to policy changes, there was a "rush - to - install" phenomenon in the first five months, and the year - on - year growth rate of cumulative new installations and cumulative installations showed an inverted "V" trend. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of photovoltaic installation may be lower than in 2025 but will still be high. Photovoltaic cell exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate [35][37]. - **Energy Storage Demand May Explode**: In 2025, the new energy - storage installation volume in China is expected to increase by 24% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to reach 230GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate close to 70%. Globally, the new energy - storage installation volume in 2026 is expected to reach 480GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate of 60%, providing significant copper demand growth [44][47]. 3.4 Supply Side: Mine - end Shortage Persists, and Smelter Production Cuts May Expand 3.4.1 Frequent Overseas Mine Incidents Lead to Continuous Decline in Copper Concentrate TC - In 2025, overseas copper mines experienced many incidents, causing copper concentrate TC to decline continuously. CSPT called on domestic smelters to jointly cut production in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the global copper concentrate increment is expected to be 45 - 56 tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The shortage of copper concentrate will persist in the first half of 2026, and TC may remain at a very low level [49][62]. 3.4.2 Copper Mine Shortage Has Limited Impact on the Smelting End - In 2025, although copper concentrate was in short supply, the global and Chinese electrolytic copper production basically maintained the highest level in the same period of the past five years. In 2026, the shortage of copper concentrate may be difficult to ease in the first half of the year, and the domestic smelting industry may have a larger - scale joint production cut than in Q4 2025 [63]. 3.4.3 The Siphon Effect of US Copper Continues, and Spot Supplies of Shanghai and London Copper Are Tight - In 2025, due to factors such as tariffs, COMEX copper was at a significant premium, leading to a change in the global copper trade pattern. Copper flowed into the US, causing the inventory of COMEX copper to rise continuously, while the inventory of Shanghai and London copper decreased, resulting in a long - term tight spot supply and high prices [68][70]. 3.4.4 High Copper Prices Pressure Downstream Demand, and Social Inventory Remains at a High Level - In 2025, electrolytic copper social inventory increased to a high level in September, but it had little pressure on copper prices, which were mainly driven by macro factors and low copper concentrate TC [77]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Global Copper Concentrate Supply - Demand Balance Remains Tight - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance was expected to be - 35 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 40 tons, with the supply gap widening compared to 2025. The shortage will persist in Q1 2026 and gradually ease in the later quarters [79][80]. 3.5.2 Electrolytic Copper Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: In 2025, the global electrolytic copper supply - demand balance was in a tight state at - 5 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 21 tons, with the gap widening. - **China**: In 2025, the supply - demand balance of Chinese electrolytic copper was - 20.04 tons, with the gap nearly doubling compared to 2024. In 2026, it may decline slightly to - 30 tons, with the gap widening slightly compared to 2025 [81][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the textile terminal exports in China are expected to show a "low at first, then high, and mild recovery" trend. The polyester industry will achieve both scale and resilience improvement, which will support the upstream raw materials. PX prices may rise first and then fall, PTA prices may have an upward - moving center of gravity, and ethylene glycol prices may continue to bottom - out and fluctuate [3][4][5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **PX**: In 2025, PX prices showed a pattern of "decline - recovery - oscillation" affected by factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, trade policies, new capacity launches, and downstream demand. The PX - naphtha price spread was at a low level in the first quarter, and the price rebounded in the fourth quarter [11]. - **PTA**: The price trend of PTA in 2025 was similar to that of PX. It was supported by low processing fees in the first quarter, fell to a four - year low in April, and showed a relatively strong trend at the end of the year [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In 2025, ethylene glycol prices hit the bottom twice. They were affected by factors such as crude oil prices, coal costs, and supply - demand patterns. The price was low at the beginning and end of the year and showed a rebound in the middle [17]. 3.2 Terminal Polyester - **Textile Domestic Demand**: In 2025, China's textile domestic demand showed mild recovery. The retail sales of clothing and textiles increased, and the industry's operation resilience was enhanced. In 2026, if the macro - economy and consumer confidence are further stabilized, polyester domestic demand is expected to continue to grow mildly [21][22]. - **External Demand**: In 2025, China's textile terminal exports showed the characteristics of "increasing volume but decreasing price". In 2026, exports are expected to show a "low at first, then high, mild recovery, and structural differentiation" trend, but the profit margin will still be under pressure [27][28]. - **Polyester Fundamentals**: In 2025, the downstream textile start - up rate was lower than in previous years, and the inventory first accumulated and then declined. Polyester production remained high, capacity continued to grow, exports performed well, and inventory pressure was alleviated. In 2026, polyester demand is expected to grow steadily and optimize its structure, with a planned new capacity of 467 million tons, a total capacity exceeding 96 million tons, and an expected production of 85.4 million tons [34][36][41][54]. 3.3 PX - **Capacity Expansion**: In 2025, there was no new PX capacity. From 2026 to 2030, the new capacity is expected to be about 17 million tons, with 2026 having new projects planned, but the actual capacity put into production in 2026 is uncertain [56]. - **Production and Maintenance**: In 2025, the PX device maintenance was mainly concentrated in the first and second quarters, and the annual average start - up rate was 85.58%. In 2026, maintenance is concentrated in the second and fourth quarters, and production is expected to grow moderately [58]. - **Blending Oil Demand and Imports**: Blending oil demand has been weakening, and PX imports may continue to increase. In 2026, gasoline demand is expected to decline, which may lead to an increase in the supply of paraxylene for chemical consumption [66][70]. - **Inventory and Valuation**: As of October 2025, PX social inventory was lower than in the previous two years, and the current valuation is judged to be moderately low [71][74]. - **Supply - Demand Difference**: In 2025, the PX supply - demand difference was tight. In 2026, it is expected to be tight in the first half of the year and may become looser in the second half if new capacity is successfully put into production [77]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: In 2026, assuming the marginal weakening of blending oil demand, PX supply - demand will be tight compared to 2025, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall. One - sided long opportunities can be found by paying attention to the spread between PX and naphtha [79]. 3.4 PTA - **Capacity Expansion**: From 2026 to 2030, China's PTA will enter a slow - expansion period. There is no new capacity plan in 2026, and new capacity is concentrated in 2027 - 2028. The new capacity of PX and PTA may be mismatched in 2026 [80]. - **Production Growth**: In 2025, PTA production growth slowed down. In 2026, it is expected that the annual production will grow slowly with a low growth rate [85]. - **Processing Fees**: In 2025, PTA processing fees were at a low level. In 2026, with no new PTA capacity and the expected increase in PX supply, PTA processing fees are expected to recover [88]. - **Exports**: In 2025, PTA exports decreased. In 2026, due to factors such as the lack of progress in Indian certification and foreign new capacity launches, PTA exports are expected to continue to decline [89]. - **Inventory**: In 2025, PTA social inventory showed a trend of rising first and then falling. In 2026, it is expected to accumulate at the beginning of the year and then decrease, especially during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" and "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" periods [92][93]. - **Supply - Demand Difference**: In 2026, PTA supply - demand is expected to be loose around the Spring Festival and then gradually improve from March to June and in the fourth quarter [97]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: In 2026, PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, and the price center of gravity may move upward. One can focus on the opportunity of buying at low prices [99][100]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - **Production Process Economics**: In 2025, the gross profit of the mainstream ethylene glycol production process was still in a loss state, but it improved year - on - year [102]. - **Production and Capacity**: In 2025, the start - up rate of ethylene glycol increased, and production was at a high level in recent years. In 2026, new capacity is expected to expand, but the start - up rate and production growth rate may slow down [104][106]. - **Imports**: In 2025, ethylene glycol imports increased slightly. In 2026, the total import volume is expected to remain stable, but the import source proportion may change [114]. - **Inventory**: In 2025, ethylene glycol inventory increased at the end of the year. In 2026, the inventory pressure in the first half of the year is expected to be greater than that in the second half [115]. - **Supply - Demand Difference**: At the end of 2025, the ethylene glycol supply - demand difference showed a state of oversupply. In 2026, the supply pressure is expected to remain in the first half of the year and may improve in the second half, especially in the third quarter [121]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: In 2026, ethylene glycol prices may continue to bottom - out and fluctuate. There is an opportunity for price repair in the third quarter [124].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market in 2026 is expected to revolve around "demand structure change", "supply regulation", and "cost support". The market will show a weak and volatile trend with limited upside and downside space, restricted by demand increment on the upside and supported by cost and supply regulation on the downside [1][2]. - Policy will significantly influence the end - use flow of steel. Coil demand may maintain a certain growth rate, infrastructure will provide a cushion, while the real - estate construction sector will remain weak [1]. - Supply regulation aims to guide steel towards high - value - added products, and steel mills face the challenge of reducing production while maintaining profits in the over - capacity stage. Supply is expected to slightly decline [2]. - Cost support depends on the "anti - involution" trend in the coal industry and the price support of iron ore. Iron ore prices may decline in 2026 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Three Keywords - **Weak demand for finished products**: In 2025, real - estate construction demand was weak, and infrastructure's demand - increasing effect on building materials was limited. Although manufacturing and exports provided some support, they couldn't make up for the real - estate demand gap, restricting the upside of steel, iron ore, and coking coal prices [7]. - **Anti - involution policy**: It dominated the second - half trend of the black - sector market, especially in the coal sector. Policy changes led to significant price fluctuations in coking coal and coke [8]. - **Tariff trade war**: Sino - US trade frictions mainly affected the indirect export of coils, intensifying market fluctuations in the black sector [8]. 1.2 Policy Review - Steel - related policies in 2025 focused on "promoting upgrading + stabilizing growth + anti - involution", while coal - related policies emphasized "anti - involution + safety + supply guarantee + clean and efficient utilization". In 2026, steel policies will continue to promote high - end development and "anti - involution" implementation needs attention [11][12]. 1.3 Market Recap - **January - February**: Before and after the Spring Festival, demand was weak. Steel winter - storage willingness was low. After the festival, construction resumption was delayed, and steel prices were under pressure. Coal prices were lowered, while iron ore prices were firm due to shipping disruptions [14]. - **March - May**: The domestic demand peak season was below expectations, and export trade frictions intensified. Steel prices dropped, and coal prices declined significantly, while iron ore prices were relatively stable [15]. - **June - July**: Coal supply tightened, and the "anti - involution" policy pushed the black - sector market to rebound. Steel prices increased under cost support [16]. - **August - October**: The "anti - involution" policy expectations fluctuated, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectations were disappointed. Steel continued to accumulate inventory, and steel mill profits were compressed [17]. - **November - December**: Coal prices fluctuated due to supply - side disturbances. Steel supply, demand, and inventory were all weak, with limited fundamental contradictions [18]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel Terminal Demand - **Real estate**: In 2025, real - estate investment, sales, and other data continued to decline. Policies aimed at stabilizing the market, but property sales and investment are expected to decline in 2026, reducing steel demand in real - estate construction [20][28]. - **Infrastructure**: By October 2025, infrastructure investment turned negative year - on - year due to local fiscal constraints and the use of special bonds for debt repayment. In 2026, infrastructure investment is expected to have limited growth [29][39]. - **Manufacturing and indirect export**: Manufacturing's demand for steel increased, driven by the "Two New" policies. However, due to consumption front - loading, the growth rate of steel demand in manufacturing may slow down in 2026 [40][49]. - **Direct export**: As of November 2025, steel exports increased, mainly through "price - for - volume" strategy. In 2026, exports are expected to increase slightly, and exports will develop towards high - value - added and compliant products [54][58]. - **Steel demand forecast**: In 2026, the total demand for crude steel is expected to be 9.84 billion tons, a slight decrease from 2025. Different scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic) have different demand forecasts [59][60]. 2.2 Steel Supply - In 2025, steel supply was in a situation of high capacity and weak demand. Crude steel and pig iron production decreased, while steel production increased. Supply is expected to be adjusted according to policy and profit changes in 2026 [62]. 2.3 Steel Inventory - In 2025, the inventory pressure of rebar was relatively low, with high - level inventory in winter - storage and then continuous de - stocking. The hot - rolled coil inventory increased in the second half of the year and had relatively high pressure [69][72]. 2.4 Steel Supply - Demand Summary - Supply is mainly affected by policy regulation and steel mill profits. In 2026, crude steel supply is expected to tighten, and different supply - demand scenarios are predicted [73]. 3. Outlook for 2026 3.1 Market Outlook - The steel market in 2026 will be influenced by demand structure change, supply regulation, and cost support. It is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [74][75]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side trading**: Focus on short - selling at high points in the range [3]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider spread trading at the upper and lower limits of the rebar - hot - rolled coil spread, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on rebar/hot - rolled coil and short on iron ore [3]. - **Options**: Sell call options at the upper limit of the price range [3].

氧化铝&电解铝12月报 过剩格局难以撼动，氧化铝低位震荡； 铜铝比或再迎收缩窗口，电解铝震荡为主 2025年11月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 铝土矿供应情况回顾及展望 氧化铝基本面情况回顾及展望 04 电解铝供应端情况回顾及展望 观点与策略 | | 观点 核心逻辑 | | --- | --- | | | 供应端，海外多个矿山复产，后续铝土矿发运量或将进一步提升。9月几内亚港 低位震荡 | | | 口出货量回升，我国铝土矿港口库存较高，氧化铝供应仍处过剩状态。需求端， | | | 国内电解铝产能继续高位运行，氧化铝下游需求处于高位。本周国内氧化铝行业 | | | 库存延续累库态势，铝土矿库存高企，内外矿价格均承压，成本支撑或边际走弱。 | | 氧化铝 | 综合来看，几内亚铝土矿供应回升，我国铝土矿供应总量充足，氧化铝供应过剩 | | | 格局将持续，需求端已处于天花板级别，基本面处于供需双强格局。氧化铝过剩 | | | 格局难以反转，成本支撑或走弱，后续减产规模存不确定性，预计12月氧化铝仍 | | | 将维持低位震荡。 | | | 外矿整体发运量环比下行，但外矿价格整体维稳，氧化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Currently, the most convenient deliverable for coking coal, Mongolian 5 clean coal (Tangshan area), has a premium of over 250 yuan/ton, with a warehouse receipt price of around 1200 yuan/ton. Considering the impact of blended coal, the warehouse receipt cost is about 1150 yuan/ton, close to the price of the near - month contract [2]. - The core driver of coking coal lies in policy factors. The policy side controls coal prices within a reasonable range through measures such as ensuring supply, safety inspections, and strict crackdowns on over - production. Additionally, the weakening steel price restricts the upside space of coking coal prices [2]. - The future story of coking coal revolves around the supply - side policies of coking coal. The policy side provides a floor, while the weak steel price limits the upside. For the 01 contract, the range is [1100 - 1300] [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost - The design of the futures delivery system makes the price of the near - month contract converge to the spot price. The warehouse receipt cost can be regarded as an anchor for the futures price and is worthy of investors' attention [3]. - The most convenient deliverable for coking coal futures is Mongolian 5 clean coal. If delivered in Tangshan and other places, there will be a premium of 170 yuan/ton, and combined with the quality premium, the premium will exceed 250 yuan/ton [3]. - The high premium rate makes it difficult for traders to resell the goods after taking delivery, resulting in weak willingness of coking coal buyers to take delivery. The Dalian Commodity Exchange solicited public opinions on the coking coal delivery quality standard on November 4, which will reduce the premium of each coking coal variety and increase the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 clean coal more than that of Shanxi coking coal, reducing the delivery cost - effectiveness of Mongolian coal to some extent [4][6]. - Due to year - end safety inspections, strict crackdowns on over - production, and a reduction in import quotas, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal have continued to rise. The market price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal has risen from 1460 yuan/ton to 1540 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt price is around 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton. Considering the impact of blended coal, the prices of coking coal contracts 2511 and 2512 are around 1150 yuan/ton (reference time: 2025/11/12) [7]. 3.2 Core Driving Factors of Coal Prices - In the black metal industry chain, the finished steel is weak this year, and the steel price is difficult to rise. The demand for steel in the building materials sector has decreased, and although there is a certain increase in the demand for coil products and steel exports, the increase cannot make up for the decrease in the building materials sector. With limited narrative space on the demand side, the market focus has shifted to the supply side [9]. - The core driver of coking coal price trends is policy - oriented. Policy meetings, documents, and coal mine safety accidents since July have shown that each inflection point of the coking coal market depends on policy - end drivers. The state effectively regulates coal prices to keep them fluctuating within a certain range [11]. - In addition to policy - end impacts, the steel price also restricts the upside of coking coal prices. The weak demand in the finished steel end makes it difficult for the main coking coal contract price to break through the [1330] position in the second half of the year [13]. 3.3 Future Market Suggestions - It is believed that the coking coal price will remain range - bound for the rest of the year. The future story revolves around the policy side, with the policy side providing a floor and the weak steel price limiting the upside. For the 01 contract, the range is [1100 - 1300] [15]. - For long - position investors, it is recommended to try to go long at the warehouse receipt cost level, and pay attention to the changes in the steel mill's hot metal production and coking coal supply. For short - position investors, they need to wait for the right opportunity, consider light - position layout at the high end of the range, and then gradually increase the position. They also need to pay attention to coal mine safety incidents and this year's safety inspection news. For hedgers and arbitrageurs, they should comprehensively consider warehouse receipts, storage, and capital occupation, and seize arbitrage opportunities in the volatile market [15].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the cumulative global iron ore shipments turned positive year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in Chinese imports [1]. - Among the Big Four mines, FMG and Vale had strong shipments, while Rio Tinto's shipments this year may be at the lower end of the guidance target. However, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged, so the iron ore supply will still be strong in Q4 [1]. - With a strong iron ore supply and negative feedback from finished products on the demand side, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and port inventories are increasing. The subsequent trend this year will be sideways with limited upside potential [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Shipments - As of Q3 2025, global iron ore shipments reached 1.20 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The increase in Q3 shipments (422 million tons) was mainly due to a significant increase in Chinese imports (326 million tons) [2]. - Structurally, as of Q3, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1.00 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, while those from non-Australia and Brazil regions were 200 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51% [4]. - As of September, China's cumulative iron ore imports were 919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.05%. In the first eight months, cumulative imports were negative year-on-year, but imports increased in the second half of the year due to higher steel mill profits and strong demand [4]. - In the first three quarters, China imported 560 million tons of iron ore from Australia, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, accounting for 61% of the total imports, and 196 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 21% [7]. 2. Big Four Mines 2.1 Summary of Supply in the First Three Quarters - As of mid-October 2025, the cumulative shipments of the Big Four mines were 877 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%. FMG had the largest increase, Vale's shipments increased slightly year-on-year, while BHP and Rio Tinto's shipments decreased [8]. Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target. The shipments from its Pilbara mining area increased significantly in Q3, but its shipments in the first three quarters decreased year-on-year due to the impact of a hurricane in Q1 [11]. - The grades of PB fines and lumps decreased. In Q3, the shipments of PB fines and lumps increased significantly, while those of SP fines and lumps decreased significantly [13]. - The progress of the Simandou project (designed capacity of 60 million tons/year) exceeded expectations. It is expected to load the first batch of iron ore in October and ship in November, earlier than expected by one month. The capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2026 [14]. FMG - FMG's production and sales increased year-on-year, and the guidance target remained unchanged. In Q3, its production was 50.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and shipments were 49.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [16]. - The guidance target for shipments in the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged at 195 - 205 million tons, and the C1 cost target remained unchanged at $17.5 - $18.5 per wet ton [16]. BHP - BHP's Q3 shipments decreased, and the guidance target remained unchanged. Its Q3 production in Western Australia was 70.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, mainly affected by the reconstruction of the Car Dumper 3 project at Port Hedland [19]. - The guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged, about 2 million tons higher than that of the 2025 fiscal year. The average iron ore selling price in Q3 2025 was $84.04 per ton, a 5% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [21]. Vale - Vale had strong production and sales in Q3. Its Q3 iron ore production was 94.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, mainly due to the production increase in the S11D in the northern system, Minas Centrais in the southeastern system, and Vargem Grande in the southern system [23]. - Vale's Q3 sales were 86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. It adjusted its product strategy, reducing the sales of high-grade IOCJ fines by 52% year-on-year and increasing the sales of medium-grade fines such as Brazilian Blend and Carajas fines [23]. 2.2 Outlook for Future Supply - Overall, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged. Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target, while Vale's production is moving towards the upper end of the target, and FMG has strong production and sales. Therefore, it is expected that the mine shipments will still be strong in Q4, and there will be some supply pressure on iron ore [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Domestic Supply - As of September, China's cumulative production of iron ore raw ore was 761 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%. The cumulative production of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 207 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.13%. China's demand for iron elements is highly dependent on imports [26]. 3.2 Demand - As of the end of September, the cumulative crude steel production was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and the cumulative steel production was 1.104 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%. The cumulative iron ore production of 247 sample steel enterprises was 648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [27]. - As steel mills have a certain profit margin, the iron ore production remains high, supporting the demand for iron ore. However, the weak demand for finished products is expected to reduce the demand for iron ore in the future [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Due to the contradiction between the strong supply and weak demand of iron ore, the port iron ore inventory has been continuously increasing, with certain inventory pressure. The steel mill inventory is currently maintained at around 90 million tons, and the overall inventory is at a low level [31]. - At the port end, due to the high inventory pressure last year, the year-on-year import of iron ore decreased in the early part of this year, and the port inventory continued to decline. However, with the recovery of steel mill profits and the increase in foreign ore shipments, the port has started to gradually accumulate inventory, and the current inventory is 150 million tons, with certain inventory pressure [33]. 4. Future Outlook - In the context of weak demand for finished products, the decline of iron ore in the first half of the year was smaller than that of coking coal and coke. After June, the prices of coking coal and coke continued to rise, while the increase of iron ore was less than that of coking coal and coke [34]. - Looking forward, this year's crude steel reduction is expected to be mainly through the independent production cuts of steel mills. The policy space for the demand side of finished products may be limited in the future. The supply side of iron ore remains strong, while the demand continues to weaken. Therefore, it is expected that iron ore will remain sideways in the future, but the upside potential is limited [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel terminal demand policies are limited, and due to factors such as environmental protection restrictions and steel mill losses, hot metal production has been continuously decreasing. However, coking coal and coke are prone to rising and difficult to fall under the tight supply - side situation (year - end safety inspections, mine accidents, stricter over - production inspections, and Mongolian imports), but the weak demand for finished steel restricts their upward space. It is expected that coking coal and coke will fluctuate strongly [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy 3.1.1 Overall Situation - Steel terminal demand policies are limited, and factors like environmental protection restrictions and steel mill losses lead to a continuous decline in hot metal production. The tight supply - side situation makes coking coal and coke prone to rising, but the weak demand for finished steel restricts their upward movement. The overall view is that coking coal and coke will fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.1.2 Coke - **Core**: The second round of coke price increase has been implemented, but most coking enterprises are in the red. Hot metal production is decreasing, coke production is falling, and inventory pressure is limited. - **Logic**: End - of - year demand - side policies may be limited, and the coal supply side dominates the market. Coking coal and coke are likely to rise but are restricted by weak finished - steel demand. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. - **Spot and Futures**: Spot prices have increased due to coking coal cost pressure, with two rounds of price increases in October. The main futures contract rose 9.49%. The coke term structure shows a Contango structure, and the curve's center of gravity has shifted upward. - **Price Spread**: The coke futures monthly spread is basically flat. - **Supply**: Neutral. Independent coking enterprises have reduced production due to cost pressure, while steel mill coke production has increased slightly. Coke production weakened slightly in October. - **Demand**: Bearish. Direct demand has weakened as steel mills' environmental protection restrictions and profit losses lead to a continuous decline in hot metal production. There is a price game between steel mills and coking enterprises. In terms of steel terminal demand, the real estate and infrastructure sectors in the building materials segment are weak, while the manufacturing and export sectors in the coil segment have some growth. - **Inventory**: Bullish. The overall coke inventory is at a low level. Steel mills purchase on demand, and independent coking enterprises' inventory is low. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips, with the coke 01 contract in the range of [1650 - 1820] [15]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal is tight, with strict year - end safety inspections and over - production control. Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, and inventory is at a low level. - **Spot and Futures**: Spot prices have risen due to continuous supply - side disturbances. The main futures contract rose 14.21%. The coking coal Contango curve's center of gravity has shifted upward and has flattened. - **Price Spread**: The coking coal futures monthly spread has narrowed. - **Supply**: Bullish. Mine accidents, safety inspections, stricter over - production checks, and Mongolian domestic political contradictions have led to a tight supply of coking coal. - **Demand**: Bullish. Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to purchase due to rising coal prices. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The overall inventory is at a low level. Steel mills and coking enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, and mine inventory has been continuously decreasing. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips, with the coking coal 01 contract in the range of [1150 - 1320] [17]. 3.2 Hot Events - In October, policy and supply - side disturbances continuously pushed up coal prices. For example, on October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement on regulating market price behavior, and a coal mine accident occurred in Hunan. On October 16, the central safety production inspection and patrol started. On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". On October 29, there were reports of tightened coal production restrictions at the end of the year and the shutdown of a Mongolian coal washing plant. These events had an impact on the futures prices of coking coal and coke [20]. 3.3 Steel Terminal Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Real Estate - In September, except for the narrowing of the cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction area, the cumulative year - on - year data of investment, available funds, and sales area in the real estate sector continued to weaken. In most cities, housing prices declined [23]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure - From January to September this year, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 3.69 trillion yuan, accounting for about 84% of the annual total, a year - on - year increase of 7.27 billion yuan. The use of special bonds, such as for debt reduction and land reserve projects, may limit their promotion of infrastructure [26]. 3.3.3 Manufacturing - Driven by policies, the added value of the manufacturing industry has increased year - on - year, especially in equipment, automobiles, and ships. The strong growth in the downstream manufacturing industry has increased the demand for coils, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong [29]. 3.3.4 Export - From January to September, China exported 87.955 million tons of finished steel, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. Steel exports have been strong this year, with exports shifting from coils to wire rods and billets due to anti - dumping measures and market changes [31]. 3.4 Coke Fundamental Analysis 3.4.1 Price Increase - In October, coke prices increased twice due to the firm coking coal prices and coking enterprise losses. There was a fierce price game between steel mills and coking enterprises, and automobile freight rates decreased slightly [35]. 3.4.2 Futures Price - The coke 01 contract closed at 1777 yuan/ton at the end of October, a monthly increase of 9.49%. Supply - side disturbances such as mine accidents and safety inspections pushed up the price. The basis decreased as the futures price rose more than the spot price [40]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Spread - The center of gravity of the coke price curve has shifted upward, and the slope of the Contango curve has become steeper. The monthly spread is basically flat [42][45]. 3.4.4 Supply - The daily production of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, while that of steel mills increased slightly. The total daily production of coke increased slightly. Due to cost pressure, coking enterprises' production is limited, and they want to start the third - round price increase. The supply - demand gap has decreased as hot metal production decreased [48]. 3.4.5 Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills decreased in October, and hot metal production decreased for five consecutive weeks. Weak demand for finished steel, high coal and iron ore prices, and environmental protection policies led to reduced hot metal production [56]. 3.4.6 Profit - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills has been decreasing since August, and more than half of the steel mills are in the red. Coking enterprises have been mostly losing money. The weak demand for finished steel and tight coking coal supply have put pressure on the profits of steel mills and coking enterprises, leading to a price game [58]. 3.4.7 Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased slightly. Independent coking enterprises' inventory is low, steel mills purchase on demand, and port inventory increased slightly [60]. 3.5 Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Price - Coking coal prices have strengthened due to supply - side disturbances and strong downstream restocking demand. The prices of some coking coal varieties have increased significantly [70]. 3.5.2 Futures Price - The coking coal 01 contract closed at 1286 yuan/ton at the end of October, a monthly increase of 14.21%. Supply - side factors pushed up the price, but the weak demand for finished steel limits the upward space. The basis decreased as the futures price rose [72]. 3.5.3 Inter - period Spread - The center of gravity of the coking coal Contango curve has shifted upward and flattened. The monthly spread has narrowed [74][77]. 3.5.4 Supply - The production of 523 sample mines is tight, and the daily production of raw coal and clean coal is at a low level. The operating rate of 314 coal washing plants decreased slightly, and the daily production of clean coal decreased. In September, coking coal imports increased year - on - year, but Mongolian imports were affected by domestic political contradictions [80][82][84]. 3.5.5 Inventory - The total coking coal inventory increased slightly but is still at a low level compared to the same period last year. Mine inventory decreased, while steel mill and coking enterprise inventory increased due to strong restocking意愿 [86].