Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and US tariff agreements impact metal prices. After the nickel price followed the anti - involution sentiment and declined, the industry chain's continuous losses still provide strong cost support. The fundamentals have changed little, with pure nickel remaining in an oversupply situation. In August, the production schedules of domestic electrowinning nickel and Indonesian secondary nickel continued to rise. During the traditional off - season, downstream demand was sluggish. Although there was an expectation of increased stainless - steel production in August, there were many disturbances from production cuts and maintenance due to policies, and the spot market transactions were weak. The improvement in the ternary industry chain was limited, with the growth rate of electric vehicle retail sales slowing down in July and the market share of ternary batteries being continuously squeezed by lithium iron phosphate. As the rainy season was coming to an end, nickel ore port inventories continued to accumulate, and there was an expectation of a decline in ore prices [10]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint and Strategy - **Main Viewpoints**: Macro factors and cost support affect nickel price; fundamentals show oversupply, and downstream demand is weak during the off - season [10]. - **Industry News**: In July 2025, GEM's Indonesian nickel project produced over 10,000 tons of nickel in a single month. Some steel mills actively controlled production in response to the national "anti - involution" policy, and northern steel mills planned maintenance from late August to early September [10]. - **Important Data**: This week, LME nickel inventory increased by 3150 tons, domestic inventory increased by 745 tons, and global visible nickel inventory increased by 1.57% to 253,000 tons. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price rose by $0.2 - 0.3, with a premium of +24 as the mainstream. In July, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74%, and the estimated production in August was 37,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.45%. In August, domestic stainless - steel production was scheduled to be 3.3041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.64% [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: For nickel, due to the increasing production capacity of Indonesian secondary nickel and domestic electrowinning nickel and the slowdown in off - season demand growth, the oversupply situation is expected to continue. In the long - term, the oversupply of nickel is difficult to reverse. In the short - term, affected by macro sentiment and cost support, it is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate in the range of [117,000, 125,000] yuan/ton, and a sell - on - rally strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, the current anti - involution production cuts still support the stainless - steel market. However, in the long - term, the oversupply will suppress price increases. It is expected that SHFE stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of [12,300, 13,200] yuan/ton, and short - selling is recommended when the price rebounds to the upper end of the range [10]. 02盘面回顾 - Nickel prices continued to fluctuate, and relevant data on domestic liquidity positions, spot premiums, and price differences between the two markets were presented [12][13]. 03 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: Nickel ore ports saw inventory accumulation, and ore prices remained stable. The mainstream transaction price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines was mostly CIF42, and that from the Philippines to Indonesia was mostly CIF41. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price rose by $0.2 - 0.3 [16][17]. - **Nickel Iron**: In July, the total production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia was 178,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year increase of 20.61%. The market quotation for nickel iron was firm, with the mainstream price ranging from 930 - 940 yuan/nickel [21]. - **Intermediate Products**: In July, nickel intermediate products increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 54,400 tons. The price followed the increase in nickel prices, the production cost of nickel sulfate increased, and the loss situation worsened [25]. - **Imports**: In June, nickel iron imports increased significantly, while intermediate product imports decreased [28]. - **Inventory**: This week, LME inventory increased by 3150 tons to 212,200 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 745 tons to 39,300 tons. Spot transactions were generally cold [32]. - **Electrowinning Nickel**: In July, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. The estimated production in August was 37,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.45%. There were also detailed plans for domestic and Indonesian electrowinning nickel projects [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Some steel mills planned production cuts and maintenance. The loss of integrated production narrowed, and the economic efficiency of scrap stainless steel became more prominent. Stainless - steel inventory continued to decline, but the social inventory was still high. Demand was weak due to the real - estate downturn and the traditional off - season [40][44][51]. - **Ternary Industry Chain**: In August, the production of lithium batteries increased, and the production of the ternary industry chain also increased, but the improvement in demand was limited [56]. - **Electric Vehicles**: In the first half of the year, domestic electric vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively, with a sales penetration rate of 44.3%. The share of ternary batteries was squeezed by lithium iron phosphate [60]. 04 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The global nickel supply surplus is expected to expand year - on - year. In 2025E, the total supply is estimated to be 389.3 million tons, while the total demand is 354.5 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 34.8 million tons. In China, the supply surplus is also expected to be 16.2 million tons in 2025 [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of iron ore is expected to shift towards fundamentals in August. Domestically, policy expectations have ebbed, while abroad, attention should be paid to tariff dynamics. In the short term, iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level in a range, and in the long term, it may weaken along with finished steel. Currently, steel mills still have high profits, so the output of hot metal remains at a high level, supporting the demand for iron ore. The inventory contradiction of iron ore is not significant, but it is expected that the shipment volume of foreign mines will increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to changes in iron ore demand [7][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint Strategy - **Core Logic**: Domestically, policy expectations have ebbed, but the US non - farm payrolls data has been significantly revised down, increasing the probability of an interest rate cut in September. Fundamentally, steel mills still have high profits, so the output of hot metal remains at a high level, supporting the demand for iron ore. Coke is about to start the fifth round of price increase. Currently, the inventory contradiction of iron ore is not significant. It is expected that the shipment volume of foreign mines will increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to changes in iron ore demand [13]. - **Spot and Futures Market**: In July, the price of iron ore increased by 38 - 77 yuan/wet ton. The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract was 779 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.87% compared with the end of June. The basis was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June. The unilateral open interest of iron ore first increased and then decreased in July. The price center of the iron ore Back curve shifted upwards, and the curve became slightly steeper [13]. - **Spread**: At the end of July, the spread between DCE and SGX iron ore was 66 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton compared with the end of June, and the spread continued to widen. At the end of July, the spread between rebar and iron ore (main contract) was 2426 yuan/ton, an increase of 144.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June; at the end of July, the rebar - to - iron ore ratio was 4.11, a decrease of 0.08 compared with the end of June [13]. 02 Macro Level - **Macro News in July**: In July, the black - sector fluctuated greatly under market policy expectations and capital speculation, especially in coking coal futures. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's statement at the beginning of the month and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's emphasis on capacity reduction later, along with other events, led to sharp rises and falls in coking coal prices [15]. - **Construction**: In July, the weekly cement delivery volume was about 275 tons, a decrease of about 15 tons/week compared with June. The weekly direct supply of infrastructure cement was about 166 tons, a decrease of about 3 tons/week compared with June. The total cement delivery volume decreased by about 75 tons/week year - on - year, and real - estate demand was a drag [18]. - **Infrastructure**: In July, the weekly concrete delivery volume was about 1.44 million cubic meters, basically the same as in June and year - on - year. The weekly asphalt sales volume was about 26 tons, a decrease of about 2.5 tons/week compared with June [22]. - **Manufacturing**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4% month - on - month, and it was below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The steel PMI was 50.5%, returning above the boom - bust line [24]. 03 Spot and Basis - **Spot Market**: In July, the spot price of steel followed the futures market and strengthened. Affected by coking coal, the black - sector rebounded. The price of coking coal increased significantly, trade merchants held back sales, and the inventory of raw coal in mines decreased significantly. Coke had four rounds of price increases in July, and there was an expectation of a fifth round at the end of the month [28]. - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: In July, the price of iron ore increased by 38 - 77 yuan/wet ton. The price of low - grade iron powder increased less, while that of medium - and high - grade iron powder increased more. The spot benchmark price of the Beijing Iron and Steel Exchange first increased and then slightly decreased [33]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: As of July 31, the closing price of the main iron ore futures contract was 779 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.87% compared with the end of June. The basis on the 31st was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June. The open interest of iron ore futures first increased and then decreased in July [35][38]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Compared with a month ago, the price center of the iron ore Back curve shifted upwards, and the curve became slightly steeper. As of July 31, the 5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June; the 9 - 1 spread was 25.5 yuan/ton, the same as at the end of June [42][45]. 04 Spread - **Cross - market Spread**: At the end of July, the spread between DCE and SGX iron ore was 66 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton compared with the end of June, and the spread continued to widen [50]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: At the end of July, the spread between rebar and iron ore (main contract) was 2426 yuan/ton, an increase of 144.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June; the rebar - to - iron ore ratio was 4.11, a decrease of 0.08 compared with the end of June. The fundamentals of iron ore are better than those of steel. Considering the high profits of steel mills, one can consider narrowing the steel - mill profit, but also pay attention to the expectation of crude - steel production reduction [53]. 05 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: In July, the weekly shipment volume of iron ore was around 30 million tons, a decrease of about 4 million tons/week compared with June. As of the end of July, the cumulative global shipment volume was 937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [55]. - **47 - Port Arrival Volume**: In July, the weekly arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports was between 23 million and 29 million tons, higher than the same period last year. As of the end of July, the cumulative arrival volume for the year was 762 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23 million tons, a decrease of 2.99% [61]. - **Domestic Mine Supply**: In July, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines increased slightly, and the daily output of iron powder increased slightly [65][68]. 06 Demand - **Hot Metal Output**: In July, the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises was around 2.4 million tons, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The daily average consumption of imported iron ore was about 3 million tons [71]. - **Blast - furnace Operating Rate and Capacity Utilization**: In July, the operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was maintained at 83.46%, a slight decrease from the previous month. The blast - furnace capacity utilization was around 90%, a slight decrease from the previous month and an increase of about 1% compared with the same period last year [73]. - **Profitability of Steel Enterprises**: In July, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises continued to rise. At the end of July, the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.37%, an increase of 6.06% compared with the beginning of the month and an increase of about 60% compared with the same period last year [76]. - **Production Profit**: In July, the profit of producing rebar in blast furnaces continued to increase. The profit of electric furnaces in the East China region turned from negative to positive, and the profit of electric furnaces in the Southwest region exceeded 200 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils also increased [80][83][87]. 07 Inventory - **Domestic Mine Inventory**: In July, the inventory of iron concentrate in domestic mines continued to decline and remained at a low level [96]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory**: As of the end of July, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1209 million tons, an increase of 1.6462 million tons compared with the end of June. Steel mills maintained a low inventory and mainly purchased on demand [98]. - **Port Inventory**: In July, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the overall inventory pressure was not large. As of the end of July, the iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, a decrease of 2.5822 million tons compared with the end of June and a decrease of 14.683 million tons year - on - year [101]. - **Surcharge Volume**: In July, the surcharge volume remained at a high level. At the end of July, the number of ships at 45 ports was 90, an increase of 8 compared with the end of June and a decrease of 35 compared with the same period last year. The daily average surcharge volume at 45 ports was maintained above 3 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that oils will lack driving factors and maintain range - bound oscillations. For protein meals, it is advisable to buy on dips. [8][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy 3.1.1 Oils Main Viewpoints - **Core Logic**: The good rate of US soybeans remains high. In August, weather has a significant impact. Rainfall in the main US soybean - producing areas in the next 15 days is slightly lower than normal, and soybeans are expected to grow normally. Brazil's soybean export peak is approaching, and exports are expected to decrease. US tariff policies suppress soybean exports. Argentina will lower soybean export tariffs, squeezing US soybean demand. CBOT soybeans are weak but with limited downside. Palm oil is in the seasonal production increase period, with increased production and weak exports in Malaysia in July, indicating significant inventory accumulation. Indonesia's palm oil production recovery is unfulfilled, and inventory is low. Domestic palm oil is slowly accumulating inventory, and future purchases are few. Palm oil is affected by crude oil. Canadian rapeseed is expected to grow normally. Australia and China are close to an agreement on rapeseed exports. Rapeseed inventory is falling, and imports are expected to increase slightly in August. [8] - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery is 3,777 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 121 yuan/ton. The import cost of palm oil (August shipment) is 9,340 yuan/ton, with a spot profit of - 506 yuan/ton and an August shipment spot - market profit of - 134 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) is 4,942 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 295 yuan/ton and a spot - market crushing profit of 108 yuan/ton. [8] - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in August is 10.69 million tons, rapeseed is 195,000 tons, and palm oil is 180,000 tons. [8] - **Demand**: In July, the total domestic sales of bulk soybean oil from key oil mills were 463,200 tons, a 20.09% increase from the previous month. Palm oil sales were 10,376 tons, a 62.20% decrease from June. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil from coastal oil mills was 123,400 tons, a decrease of 15,900 tons from the previous month. [8] - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in key regions nationwide was 2.3618 million tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous week and a 17.10% increase year - on - year. [8] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to conduct short - term operations within the oscillation range for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage. [8] 3.1.2 Protein Meals Main Viewpoints - **Core Logic**: Similar to oils, US soybeans are in a good growth situation, and Brazilian and US soybeans face export challenges. In August, soybean arrivals will be large, oil mill operating rates will remain high, and soybean meal will accumulate inventory. Pig farming is promoting the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing future demand. Canadian rapeseed is expected to grow normally. Australia and China are close to an agreement on rapeseed exports. Recent rapeseed arrivals are few, and coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory is low, but imported rapeseed meal inventory is high. Rapeseed imports are expected to increase slightly in August, and the operating rate may recover. [11] - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery is 3,777 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 121 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) is 4,942 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 295 yuan/ton and a spot - market crushing profit of 108 yuan/ton. [11] - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in August is 10.69 million tons, and rapeseed is 195,000 tons. [11] - **Demand**: In July, the total sales of soybean meal were 4.0215 million tons, a decrease of 954,800 tons from the previous month, a 19.19% decrease; a year - on - year increase of 1.0297 million tons, a 34.42% increase. From Week 27 to Week 31, the pick - up volume of rapeseed meal from coastal oil mills was 137,900 tons, and the consumption of imported rapeseed meal (Nantong) was 119,500 tons. [11] - **Inventory**: In Week 30, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0431 million tons, a 4.48% increase from the previous week and a 22.50% decrease year - on - year. It is expected that soybean meal will gradually accumulate inventory in August. In July, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were stable at around 8 days. In Week 30, the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was 19,000 tons, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory was 663,600 tons. [11] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to buy on dips for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage. [11] 3.2 2025 July Oils and Meals Market Review 3.2.1 Oils Market Review - **Market Trend**: In July, the oils sector oscillated strongly. The palm oil led the increase due to factors such as Malaysia's reverse - seasonal production decrease in June, strong exports and low inventory in Indonesia, and biodiesel news. The CBOT soybeans were weak, but US biodiesel news boosted US soybean oil. The rapeseed futures price oscillated, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory fell from a high level. The oils sector rose 3.29%, the palm oil main contract rose 6.84%, the soybean oil main contract rose 2.61%, and the rapeseed oil main contract rose 1.01%. [15] - **Spot Price**: In July, the spot prices of the three major oils oscillated strongly, with palm oil having the largest increase. On July 31, 2025, the mainstream price of rapeseed oil was 9,632 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton monthly; the average price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,372 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton monthly; the national average price of 24 - degree palm oil was 8,993 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton monthly. [24] 3.2.2 Protein Meals Market Review - **Market Trend**: In July, soybean meal and rapeseed meal first rose and then fell. It was expected that rapeseed imports would be few from July to August, and the operating rate of oil mills would be low. Aquaculture was in the peak season, and the demand for rapeseed meal was strong. The inventory of coastal oil mill rapeseed meal was low, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory fell from a high level. Rapeseed meal was strong. In late July, CBOT soybeans continued to decline, and the demand for soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased due to pig farming regulation. [28] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of rapeseed meal increased significantly due to high demand and low inventory. The spot price of soybean meal oscillated strongly under the drive of rapeseed meal, with an average price of 2,945 yuan/ton on July 31, 2025, up 43 yuan/ton monthly; the average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,600 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton monthly. [31] 3.3 Oils and Oilseeds Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 International Situation - **US Soybeans**: The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is normal. The good rate is high, with a flowering rate of 76%, a pod - setting rate of 41%, and a good rate of 70% as of July 27. The soybean crushing volume in June decreased month - on - month but was at a high level in the same period of previous years, and the crushing profit recovered from a low level. [36][40][44] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: In July, Brazil's soybean export volume was 12.06 million tons, a 10.53% decrease from the previous month and a 25.63% increase year - on - year. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans continued to rise. [47] - **Argentine Soybeans**: In June, Argentina's soybean export volume was 1 million tons, a 18.10% decrease from the previous month and a 29.11% decrease year - on - year. Argentina will lower the soybean export tariff from 33% to 26%. [50] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons due to a surge in exports. [55] - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In June, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.6923 million tons, a 4.48% decrease from the previous month and a 4.77% increase year - on - year. In July, the production increased 7.07% month - on - month, exports were weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. [60][64] - **Canadian Rapeseed**: The weather in the main Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is normal. As of July 28, the growth of rapeseed in Saskatchewan was generally in good condition, and the good rate of rapeseed in Alberta was 60.3%. As of July 27, the rapeseed export volume decreased 72.8% from the previous week to 55,100 tons. In June, the rapeseed crushing volume increased 3% from the previous month. [67][71][76] 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - **Soybeans**: It is expected that 10.69 million tons of soybeans will arrive in August. As of the 30th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of oil mills was 645,590 tons, up 0.52% from the previous week. In July, the soybean import cost oscillated, and the crushing profit increased slightly. In July, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume was 10.1292 million tons, and it is estimated to be 10.15 million tons in August. [81][85][94] - **Palm Oil**: The import cost of palm oil increased in July. The import profit improved. It is estimated that the palm oil import volume in August will be 180,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from July. [98][102][106] - **Rapeseed**: The import cost of Canadian rapeseed oscillated in July. The crushing profit of imported rapeseed increased in terms of spot profit and decreased in terms of spot - market profit. It is estimated that the rapeseed arrival volume in August will be 195,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons from July. In July, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills increased. [111][114][123] - **Inventory and Sales of Oils**: As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3618 million tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous week. The inventory trends of the three major oils diverged, with soybean oil and palm oil accumulating inventory and rapeseed oil inventory falling from a high level. In July, the sales of soybean oil increased, while the sales of rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased. [127][133][136] - **Inventory and Sales of Protein Meals**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased rapidly. In July, the sales of soybean meal decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills recovered from a low level, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory was still high. The consumption of rapeseed meal increased due to aquaculture demand. [140][144][156]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Alumina & Electrolytic Aluminum Monthly Report for August" - Report Date: July 2025 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views Alumina - Supply side: Guinea's rainy season affects bauxite mining and transportation, with a decline in shipments. China's bauxite port inventory is increasing, and domestic bauxite mines have stable production with no large - scale复产 plans, so overall bauxite supply is sufficient. Demand for alumina has limited growth due to capacity "red - line" restrictions. Domestic alumina industry inventory is at a low level but is increasing, weakening inventory support. - Outlook: Alumina is expected to trade in the range of [2850 - 3400] in August and follow a medium - to - long - term strategy of selling on rallies [6]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply side: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is at a high level, with a utilization rate over 96%, and subsequent growth is limited. - Demand side: In June, the start - up rates of downstream aluminum sectors varied, and overall demand did not show a significant recovery. Aluminum exports were weak due to US tariffs, and social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase. - Outlook: In August, Shanghai aluminum is expected to trade in the range of [20000 - 20800] [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Aluminum Bauxite Supply - **Domestic Production**: In June 2025, China's bauxite production was 546,000 tons, a 3.02% year - on - year increase, at a relatively low level in the past four years. Production in Guangxi decreased slightly, while that in Shanxi remained stable, and production in Henan and Guangxi increased slightly [9]. - **Imports**: From January to June 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 103 million tons, a 33.8% year - on - year increase. Affected by Guinea's rainy season, imports in May and June decreased, and future imports may decline [13]. - **Shipments by Country**: In June 2025, shipments from Australia to China continued to decline slightly, and those from Guinea decreased monthly. In June, shipments from Guinea were 5.7212 million tons, a 46.44% year - on - year increase. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, bauxite port inventory was 29.53 million tons, at a medium - to - high level in the past six years [18]. 3.2 Alumina Fundamentals - **Profit and Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, alumina production costs decreased slightly to 2,842.9 yuan/ton, and production profit rose to 390 yuan/ton. After the end of environmental inspections and with the recovery of profits, capacity utilization in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi increased to varying degrees [22]. - **Production**: In June 2025, global metallurgical - grade alumina production was 12.15 million tons, a 3.43% year - on - year increase. China's production was 7.326 million tons, an 8.34% year - on - year increase [26]. - **Net Exports**: In June 2025, China's alumina remained in a net - export state, with a net import of - 69,700 tons, a 41.53% year - on - year increase, at a very low level in the past six years [31]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, China's alumina inventory was 4.047 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease, showing a continuous upward trend [35]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - **Cost and Profit**: In June 2025, alumina prices were low, and electrolytic aluminum production costs increased slightly to 16,165 yuan/ton. As aluminum prices rose, production profit rose to 4,372 yuan/ton [40]. - **Production**: In June 2025, global electrolytic aluminum production was 60.45 million tons, a 1.14% year - on - year increase. China's production was 3.6525 million tons, a 2.73% year - on - year increase [44]. - **Imports**: In July 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum declined. In June, China's electrolytic aluminum imports were 461,300 tons, at the highest level in the past six years [49]. - **Inventory**: As of June 2025, the aluminum - water ratio rose to 75.25%, the highest in the past six years. As of July 25, 2025, electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, at a very low level in the past six years. LME aluminum ingot inventory increased from 345,750 tons at the end of June to 461,025 tons in July [52][56]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption - **Downstream Sector Start - up Rates**: In June 2025, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly to 47.35% due to the weak real - estate market and the off - season. The start - up rate of aluminum sheets and strips increased slightly to 72.68% due to the boost from the automotive market [61][62]. - **Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles was 410,500 tons, a - 21.03% year - on - year decrease; that of aluminum sheets and strips was 1.5076 million tons, a - 8.66% year - on - year decrease; that of aluminum foil was 684,400 tons, a - 7.65% year - on - year decrease; and that of aluminum cables was 135,100 tons, a 33.63% year - on - year increase [66][70]. - **Real - Estate Market**: From January to June 2025, China's real - estate market was still weak. The decline in new construction and construction areas narrowed slightly, while the decline in completed areas widened. New construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a 22.8% year - on - year decrease; construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease; and completed area was 183.8514 million square meters, a 17.3% year - on - year decrease [75][79]. - **Automotive Market**: From January to June 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 15.6199 million vehicles, a 12.47% year - on - year increase. In June, production was 2.7941 million vehicles, sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, and the production - to - sales ratio rose to 1.0395. New - energy vehicle production was 1.268 million vehicles, sales were 1.329 million vehicles, and the production - to - sales ratio rose to 1.0481 [82][87]. - **Home Appliance Market**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of the production and sales of three major white - goods slowed down. Refrigerator production increased by 3.41% year - on - year, air - conditioner production by 6.91%, and washing - machine production by 9.5%. Refrigerator sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year, air - conditioner sales by 8.49%, and washing - machine sales by 10.07% [92]. - **Photovoltaic Market**: In June 2025, China's cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 1100.03 GW, a 54.2% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative new installed capacity was 212.21 GW, a 107.08% year - on - year increase, with a slight slowdown in the growth rate [97].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the first half of the year, global iron ore shipments decreased by 0.96% year-on-year. Australian and Brazilian shipments were affected by weather in Q1 and increased in Q2. Non-Australian and non-Brazilian shipments decreased significantly year-on-year, and non-mainstream shipments were more affected by ore prices compared to mainstream shipments from Australia and Brazil [2]. - It is expected that the output and shipments of the four major mines will increase in the second half of the year. Rio Tinto and Vale's output/shipments in the first half of the year did not reach half of their guidance targets, while FMG and BHP raised their guidance targets for fiscal year 2026 [2]. - The main contradiction in the black sector lies in the terminal demand for steel, which depends on policy support. The bargaining power of imported iron ore is relatively strong. It is expected that the downside space for iron ore in the second half of the year is limited, and the upside space depends on the trend of steel prices [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron ore shipments in the first half of the year - In H1 2025, the cumulative global iron ore shipments were 778 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.96%. Affected by cyclones in Australia and rainfall in Brazil in Q1, the cumulative shipments were 362 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%. In Q2, shipments increased to make up for the previous shortfall and due to the end - of - quarter rush by Australian mines [3]. - From the source of shipments, the total shipments from Australia and Brazil in H1 were 648 million tons, accounting for 83% of global shipments, with a year-on-year increase of 0.84%. Non-Australian and non-Brazilian shipments were only 130 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.09%. Iron ore prices have a greater impact on non-Australian and non-Brazilian shipments, and Australian and Brazilian shipments show obvious seasonal patterns [5]. 2. Expected increase in shipments of the four major mines in the second half of the year 2.1 Supply summary in the first half of the year - According to SteelHome data, the cumulative shipments of the four major mines in H1 2025 were 529 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.29%. Structurally, Rio Tinto and BHP's shipments decreased, FMG's shipments increased significantly, and Vale's shipments increased steadily [6]. - Rio Tinto's 2025 production guidance target remained unchanged. Affected by cyclones and capacity replacement in Q1, its H1 shipments decreased by 5% year-on-year. The Pilbara mine achieved its highest Q2 output since 2018, and the first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was advanced to around November 2025. The品位 of PB mixed ore decreased [8][11]. - FMG's Q2 output and shipments increased significantly quarter-on-quarter. In fiscal year 2025, it shipped 198 million tons of iron ore, a year-on-year increase of 4%, achieving its fiscal year target. It raised its 2026 fiscal year guidance target by 5 million tons to 195 - 205 million tons [12][13]. - BHP's Q2 2025 output was 77 million tons, and its fiscal year 2025 output was 290 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%. It raised its 2026 fiscal year guidance target by 2 million tons. It increased shipments in Q2 by optimizing operations [14][15]. - Vale's Q2 output was 83.6 million tons, a significant increase, mainly due to the strong performance of the Southeast and Northern systems. It adjusted its 2025 iron ore pellet target output downwards by 7 million tons due to weak demand [16][18]. 2.2 Supply outlook in the second half of the year - It is expected that the iron ore shipments of the four major mines will increase in the second half of the year. Rio Tinto is expected to speed up production and shipments, with the Xipo and Simandou projects as key sources of growth. FMG is expected to have some room for shipment growth. BHP's output and shipments are expected to remain sufficient. Vale's production is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year [19]. 3. Fundamental analysis 3.1 Domestic ore supply - In H1 2025, China's raw iron ore output was about 509 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. The cumulative output of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 138 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%. Domestically sourced iron accounted for about 19.0% of the total supply [20]. 3.2 Demand - More than half of the steel mills were profitable in H1. The total profit of规上 steel enterprises in H1 was 46.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7 times. However, the revenue of the steel industry decreased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the cumulative crude steel output was 515 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. Steel mills' profits came from cost reduction. High steel mill profits supported high pig iron production and thus iron ore demand [21]. 3.3 Inventory - In H1, the inventory pressure on steel mills and ports was small. Steel mills' inventory was below 100 million tons after the Spring Festival, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was around 30. The inventory of imported iron ore decreased by about 3 million tons year-on-year. The inventory at 47 ports decreased from about 156 million tons at the beginning of the year to 144 million tons by July, 14 million tons lower than last year [24][26]. 4. Future outlook - In Q1, iron ore prices were relatively firm. In Q2, coking coal prices rebounded, but iron ore price increases were limited. In July, affected by policy expectations, funds flowed into coking coal. The main contradiction in the black sector lies in steel terminal demand, which depends on policy support. In the second half of the year, iron ore supply is expected to be strong, demand depends on policies, and inventory pressure is not large. The downside space for iron ore is limited, and the upside space depends on steel prices [27][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the domestic anti - involution sentiment shows a game of differentiation, and the tariff agreement between the US and the EU as well as the rebound of the US dollar index may suppress prices. Fundamentally, the situation has not changed much, with nickel remaining in an oversupply situation. During the current metal consumption off - season, the overall demand for pure nickel downstream is relatively sluggish, and enterprises mainly purchase on demand. Stainless steel production cuts are less than expected, the spot market transactions are weak, and social inventories remain at a high level. Some ferronickel production lines are switching to producing nickel matte, and the ternary industry chain remains sluggish, with low demand for high - priced nickel sulfate. With the end of the rainy season, nickel ore inventories at ports are continuously increasing, and there is an expectation of a decline in ore prices [10]. - For nickel, the release of production capacity of secondary nickel in Indonesia and domestic electrowon nickel, the slowdown in demand growth, and the year - on - year expansion of the supply surplus. Although there is still a structural shortage of nickel ore, under the continuous negative feedback of the industrial chain, the smelter cost is significantly inverted. In the long run, the oversupply situation of nickel is difficult to reverse. In the short term, under the game of macro - sentiment and cost support, it is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate in the range of 【117000, 126000】 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of selling on rallies. - For stainless steel, with a large oversupply of production capacity, the price fluctuates with cost support. Currently, the production side and anti - involution stimulus support the price to some extent, but the impact of maintenance and production cuts on the overall production plan is limited, and the actual purchasing power of downstream in the traditional off - season is limited. In the long run, the oversupply will continue to suppress the price increase space. It is expected that SHFE stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of 【12300, 13100】 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the high end of the range [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint and Strategy - **Running Logic**: Domestically, the anti - involution sentiment shows a game of differentiation. Overseas, the tariff agreement between the US and the EU and the rebound of the US dollar index may suppress prices. Fundamentally, nickel remains in an oversupply situation, with low downstream demand for pure nickel and weak stainless steel market transactions [10]. - **Industry News**: The APNI Association has proposed re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore to include the economic value of iron and cobalt, which may increase smelting costs. The Indonesian government plans to change the RKAB approval cycle from three years to one year starting in 2026 and urges enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget starting in October 2025. An 11 - EF production line project in Indonesia has recently suspended production, which may affect ferronickel production by about 1900 metal tons per month [10]. - **Important Data**: This week, LME nickel inventories decreased by 3654 tons, domestic inventories increased by 135 tons, and global visible nickel inventories decreased by 1.43% to 243,000 tons. The premium of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore remains at HPM + 24~HPM + 26, and the industry expects a high probability of a premium reduction in August. In June, China's stainless steel imports were 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,000 tons and a year - on - year cumulative decrease of 25%. In July, domestic stainless steel production is planned to be 3.12 million tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively; Indonesia's production in July is planned to be 430,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 33% and 32% respectively [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: For nickel, it is recommended to sell on rallies as the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 【117000, 126000】 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the high end of the range of 【12300, 13100】 yuan/ton [10]. 02盘面回顾 - The nickel price is mainly dominated by macro - sentiment, and relevant data charts show the trends of domestic liquidity positions, LME and SHFE nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, and SHFE nickel 1 - 3 month spreads [12]. 03 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: This week, nickel ore port inventories reached 9.8787 million tons, an increase of 395,100 tons or 4.17% from the previous week. In the past month, nickel ore port inventories have increased by 2.2864 million tons, an increase of 30.11%. The nickel ore price has generally declined, and with the end of the rainy season, it is expected to continue to decline due to weak demand [17]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel production is in a loss, and some smelters have cut production [19]. - **Intermediate Products**: The supply of intermediate products is loose, and the price of nickel sulfate is weak. Some production lines are switching to producing nickel matte, and it is expected that the supply of nickel matte will increase significantly in July [22][23]. - **Imports**: In June, ferronickel imports increased significantly, while intermediate product imports decreased [26]. - **Inventories**: Global nickel inventories decreased by 1.43% to 243,000 tons, with China's inventories increasing and LME's decreasing. LME nickel inventories decreased by 3654 tons this week [30]. - **Electrowon Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel is sufficient, and the output has increased significantly year - on - year. The cumulative domestic pure nickel output from January to June increased by 29% year - on - year to 197,000 tons, and it is expected that the total output in July will be 32,200 tons, a slight increase of 1% month - on - month [34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of stainless steel is at a high level, and production cuts have limited impact. The production of 43 domestic stainless steel plants in July is planned to be 3.268 million tons, with a small decrease compared to the previous period. Stainless steel production is in a loss, and the economy of scrap stainless steel is prominent. Stainless steel inventories are still decreasing, but social inventories remain high. The real estate demand is低迷, while the manufacturing industry has been boosted. The ternary industry chain remains sluggish [37][41][43][46][49]. 04 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The global supply surplus of nickel is expected to expand year - on - year. In 2025E, the total supply is 3.893 million tons, and the total demand is 3.545 million tons, with a balance of 348,000 tons. In China, the supply surplus in 2025E is expected to be 162,000 tons, with a total supply of 2.539 million tons and a total consumption of 2.29 million tons [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For polyethylene (PE), the cost support from crude oil is insufficient, the supply pressure is increasing, but the expected demand peak season has a certain support for prices, with limited downside space. Short - term prices may fluctuate and there may be a slight upward rebound opportunity. Consider selling put options [7]. - For polypropylene (PP), the cost - side support is unstable, the supply has an incremental expectation, but the downstream demand orders have a seasonal repair expectation, which supports prices. The price downside space is limited, short - term prices may fluctuate, and there may be a slight upward rebound opportunity. Consider selling put options [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary Polyethylene (PE) - Cost: Crude oil supply and demand concerns coexist, price fluctuates, and cost support for plastic prices is insufficient [7]. - Supply: Current production is at a high level in recent years, with device restarts and no new planned maintenance, increasing supply pressure [7]. - Demand: Overall downstream PE开工率 declines, in the off - season currently, but there is an expected rebound in the peak season, and packaging film orders increase slightly [7]. - Import and Export: Import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decrease [7]. - Inventory: Social and production enterprise inventories increase, while trader inventories decrease but remain high [7]. - Gross Profit: Oil - and coal - based profits decline [7]. - Spread: Pay attention to the potential bottom - rebound of plastic 09 - 01 spread, the possible seasonal strengthening of PP09 - 01 spread, and the potential upward movement of plastic - PP09 contract spread [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - Cost: Crude oil price fluctuates, and PDH production cost may loosen, with insufficient cost support for PP prices [9]. - Supply: PP capacity utilization and production increase, with some restarted maintenance enterprises and new expansions concentrated at the end of the month [9]. - Demand: Downstream product 开工率 declines, raw material inventory increases slightly, finished product inventory pressure increases slightly, and plastic - woven orders are expected to rebound in the peak season [9]. - Import and Export: Import profit losses expand, and export profits increase slightly [9]. - Inventory: Overall PP inventory decreases slightly [9]. - Gross Profit: Oil -, coal -, and PDH - based PP profits decline, while methanol - and externally - sourced propylene - based PP profits recover [9]. - Spread: Similar to PE, pay attention to relevant spread trends [9]. 3.2 Next Week's Focus - July 21st: China's one - year loan prime rate, US June Conference Board leading index monthly rate [12]. - July 22nd: Press conference on China's foreign exchange receipts and payments in H1 2025, Fed Chairman Powell's speech [12]. - July 23rd: US API and EIA crude oil inventories, EIA Cushing crude oil inventory, EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory; NYMEX crude oil August futures contract expiration [12]. - July 24th: Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate, US initial jobless claims, US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash [13]. - July 25th: US June durable goods orders monthly rate [13]. - July 26th: US weekly oil rig count [13]. 3.3 Polyethylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Spot prices of PE decline slightly, and futures prices fluctuate downward. As of July 18th, HDPE film price is 7963 yuan/ton (- 25 yuan/ton), LDPE film price is 9462 yuan/ton (- 66 yuan/ton), LLDPE film price is 7411 yuan/ton (- 29 yuan/ton). LLDPE futures contract 09 closes at 7216 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) [15]. - Production: As of July 18th, PE production is 60.9 tons, up 0.32 tons from the previous period, and capacity utilization is 78.68%, down 0.01% [20]. - Maintenance Loss: As of July 18th, PE maintenance loss is 12.07 tons, down 0.75 tons. Next week, it is estimated to be 9.14 tons, down 2.93 tons, with no new planned shutdowns [25]. - Downstream 开工率: As of July 18th, overall downstream PE 开工率 is 38.51%, down 2.72%, still lower than the same period in previous years. Agricultural film 开工率 is down 0.18%, and packaging film 开工率 is up 0.5% [33]. - Downstream Raw Material Inventory: As of July 18th, agricultural film raw material inventory is 8.3 days (- 0.02 days), PE packaging film raw material inventory is 8.07 days (+ 0.07 days), and PE pipe raw material inventory is 7.1 days. Agricultural film orders are expected to rebound in the peak season [36]. - Inventory: As of July 18th, social sample warehouse inventory is 53.66 tons (+ 1.9 tons, + 3.68%), production enterprise inventory is 52.93 tons (+ 3.62 tons), two - oil enterprise inventory is 42.9 tons (+ 2.9 tons), and trader inventory is 5.77 tons (- 0.33 tons) [42]. - Import Profit: On July 18th, import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decline [47]. - Gross Profit: As of July 18th, oil - and coal - based PE profits decline [49]. - Futures Trading: As of July 18th, plastic futures trading volume decreases by 16822 to 318450 lots, open interest increases by 6799 to 578812 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases by 9 to 5822 lots [53][55]. 3.4 Polypropylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Polypropylene spot prices decline slightly, and futures prices fluctuate downward. As of July 18th, the spot price range is 7101 - 7137 yuan/ton, and the PP futures contract 09 closes at 7013 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton (- 0.79%) [58]. - Production: As of July 18th, domestic polypropylene production is 77.69 tons, up 0.68 tons (+ 0.88%) from the previous week and up 12.83 tons (+ 19.78%) from the same period last year. Capacity utilization is 77.29%, up 0.68% [63]. - Maintenance Loss: As of July 18th, polypropylene device weekly loss is 21.982 tons, down 5.53%. New expansions are concentrated at the end of July [68]. - Downstream 开工率: As of July 18th, the average downstream polypropylene 开工率 is 48.52%, down 0.12 percentage points. Plastic - woven 开工率 is down 0.6% to 41.4%, BOPP 开工率 is up 0.21% to 60.77%, and injection - molded product 开工率 is up 1.04 to 51.9% [71]. - Downstream Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory: As of July 18th, plastic - woven raw material inventory is 6.94 days (- 0.12 days), BOPP raw material inventory is 8.95 days (+ 0.04 days). Plastic - woven finished product inventory is 6.32 days (+ 0.16 days), BOPP factory inventory is 11.68 days (+ 0.69 days). Plastic - woven orders are expected to rebound [74]. - Inventory: As of July 18th, China's polypropylene commercial inventory is 78.12 tons, down 1.67 tons (- 2.09%), up 9.85% year - on - year [80]. - Import and Export Profit: As of July 18th, PP import profit is - 696 yuan/ton (loss expands by 13 yuan/ton), and export profit is 6.5 yuan/ton (+ 1.5 yuan/ton) [84]. - Gross Profit: As of July 18th, oil -, coal -, and PDH - based PP profits decline, while methanol - and externally - sourced propylene - based PP profits recover [87]. - Futures Trading: As of July 18th, PP futures trading volume increases by 15906 to 316654 lots, open interest increases by 27544 to 597581 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases by 434 to 10083 lots [92][94][96]. 3.5 Spread Tracking - Pay attention to the potential bottom - rebound of plastic 09 - 01 spread, the possible seasonal strengthening of PP09 - 01 spread, and the potential upward movement of plastic - PP09 contract spread. As of July 18th, plastic 09 - 01 spread is - 27 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton), PP09 - 01 spread is 3 (- 12), and 09 contract L - PP spread is 203 yuan/ton (- 19 yuan/ton) [99][101][105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Propylene is an important basic raw material in the petrochemical industry, with China emerging as the world's largest producer and consumer center. The industry has witnessed significant growth in production capacity, and the demand is mainly concentrated in Northeast Asia, especially China. The trade shows a regional characteristic, and the domestic import volume is expected to decline further [17][19][24] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. What is Propylene? - Propylene (C3H6) is an important basic raw material in the petrochemical industry. It is a colorless, hydrocarbon - scented gas at room temperature, with specific physical and chemical properties and is classified as a Class II hazardous chemical [4] II. Propylene's Uses - Propylene is mainly used to produce polypropylene, accounting for about 62% of downstream demand, with wide - ranging applications. Other downstream products include epoxy propane (7%), PP powder (6%), acrylonitrile (7%), phenol - ketone (5%), acrylic acid and its esters (4%), and butanol - octanol (7%), which are used in various industries [5][6] III. Production Process - Propylene can be produced from crude oil, propane, and coal. The main processes are catalytic cracking of heavy oil, naphtha steam cracking, propane dehydrogenation, and methanol - to - olefins. The propane dehydrogenation process currently accounts for nearly 33% of the total capacity and has become the main production process [9] IV. Propylene's Storage and Transport - Propylene can be stored in liquefied or compressed forms. Domestic transportation mainly includes road, railway, and pipeline, and international trade can use shipping. Special vehicles and containers are required for transportation due to its flammable nature [13][15] V. Delivery Standards - The benchmark delivery product is Type I propylene meeting GB/T 7716 - 2024, with water content ≤ 20mg/kg. Propylene with 20mg/kg < water content ≤ 50mg/kg can be used as an alternative delivery product, and the premium or discount is subject to exchange announcements [16] VI. Global Propylene Supply - Demand Pattern - Global propylene production capacity increased from 139 million tons in 2019 to 178 million tons at the end of 2024. The main production areas are North America, the Middle East, and Asia, with Northeast Asia having over 50% of the capacity, and China accounting for 42% in 2024. In 2024, demand was estimated between 153 million and 158 million tons, with demand growing in Northeast Asia and declining in North America and Western Europe. Global trade is regional, with Asia being the dominant market, and export volume has been shrinking [17][19][23] VII. China's Propylene Supply - Demand Pattern - China's propylene production capacity increased from 16.52 million tons/year in 2010 to 69.73 million tons/year in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 12.8% from 2014 - 2024. Production is mainly concentrated in East and North China. In 2024, the apparent consumption was 55.3521 million tons, with a growth rate of 10.30%. The consumption areas are similar to the production areas, and the main downstream products include polypropylene, epoxy propane, acrylonitrile, etc., with new capacity expected to drive up propylene demand in 2025 [24][30][31] VIII. Import - Export Situation - China is a net importer of propylene. From 2016 - 2019, imports were around 3 million tons, with a dependence of about 10%. In 2024, imports and dependence dropped to 2.02 million tons and 3.7% respectively. Imports are expected to decline further, while exports are likely to have limited growth [41][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin industry currently lacks positive drivers. Plastics are slightly better than PP. There is an opportunity to focus on the upward trend of the plastic - PP spread [1]. - For polyethylene (PE), the cost support from crude oil has weakened. Although supply pressure is expected to decrease, demand support is limited. Short - term prices may be under pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the positive spread opportunity of the 09 - 01 contract. - For polypropylene (PP), the cost support has weakened. Although the supply pressure is expected to ease, the restart of previous maintenance devices and the expansion of a 90 - million - ton/year device in mid - to - late July will weaken the positive impact on the supply side. Demand support is insufficient. Temporarily lacking positive drivers, PP prices may fluctuate downward, and the plastic - PP 09 contract spread may have an upward trend [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Summary 3.1.1 Polyethylene (PE) - Cost: Geopolitical premium has temporarily left. OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure on oil prices, and the EIA US crude oil inventory has unexpectedly increased. The refined oil cracking spread has not improved, and the global tariff trade situation still poses concerns about demand. Crude oil prices may decline, providing insufficient support for plastics [7]. - Supply: Current production is at a high level in recent years, with weekly capacity utilization and production increasing month - on - month. However, the restart expectation of previous maintenance devices is low, and there are new device maintenance plans, which support prices [7]. - Demand: The overall downstream start - up of PE has slightly decreased and is still lower than the same period in previous years. The off - season atmosphere continues, and terminal consumption is mainly on a "use - as - you - go" basis, with weak downstream orders [7]. - Import and Export: The import profits of LLDPE and HDPE have rebounded month - on - month, and the import profit of LDPE has increased [7]. - Inventory: Social inventory has increased month - on - month, and trade inventory is still accumulating [7]. - Gross Margin: Oil - based profits have increased, while coal - based profits have declined [7]. - Spread: The 09 - 01 spread of plastics fluctuates, and attention can be paid to positive spread opportunities. The 09 - 01 spread of PP may seasonally strengthen in fluctuations. The 09 - contract spread of plastic - PP may have an upward trend [7]. 3.1.2 Polypropylene (PP) - Cost: Geopolitical premium has temporarily left. OPEC+ production increase and the high US crude oil inventory put pressure on oil prices. The refined oil cracking spread has not improved, and the global tariff trade situation still affects demand. The coal market is stable. Overall, the cost support for PP has weakened [9]. - Supply: PP capacity utilization and production have decreased month - on - month but are still at a high level in recent years. There are many device maintenance plans, but attention should be paid to the impact of the expansion of a 90 - million - ton/year device in mid - to - late July on the East China market supply [9]. - Demand: The overall downstream start - up rate has declined. Downstream raw material inventory has decreased, finished product inventory pressure is not large, and orders are generally weak [9]. - Import and Export: The import profit loss has widened month - on - month, and the export profit has slightly increased [9]. - Inventory: PP production enterprise inventory has different trends, trader inventory has slightly increased, and production enterprise inventory has decreased but is still at a high level in recent years [9]. - Gross Margin: Except for the decline in coal - based profits, oil - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP profits have increased [9]. - Spread: Similar to PE, the 09 - 01 spread of plastics fluctuates, and attention can be paid to positive spread opportunities. The 09 - 01 spread of PP may seasonally strengthen in fluctuations. The 09 - contract spread of plastic - PP may have an upward trend [9]. 3.2 Next Week's Focus - On Wednesday (July 9): API and EIA crude oil inventories in the US for the week ending July 4, EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending July 4, EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending July 4, EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report, China's CPI annual rate in June, and the end of the US reciprocal tariff suspension period. - On Thursday (July 10): Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 5, EIA natural gas inventory in the US for the week ending July 4, and China's M2 money supply annual rate in June. - On Friday (July 11): IEA's monthly crude oil market report. - On Saturday (July 12): US oil rig count for the week ending July 11 [12]. 3.3 Polyethylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Spot prices have declined, and futures prices have fluctuated. As of July 4, the LLDPE futures main contract 09 was reported at 7282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous week. The LLDPE basis was - 2 yuan/ton, with little change from the previous week [15]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: As of the week ending July 4, due to the restart of devices such as Yulong Petrochemical and Shanghai SECCO, polyethylene production was 61.9 million tons, an increase of 2.36 million tons from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, an increase of 0.77% from the previous period [19]. - Maintenance Loss: As of the week ending July 4, the domestic polyethylene maintenance loss was 11.03 million tons, a decrease of 2.57 million tons from the previous period. The estimated maintenance loss next week is 10.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.97 million tons from this week [23]. - Downstream Start - up: As of the week ending July 4, the overall downstream start - up rate of polyethylene was 38.05%, a decrease of 3.18% from the previous week, still lower than the same period in previous years. The agricultural film start - up rate decreased by 0.26%, and the PE packaging film sample enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.5% [33]. - Downstream Raw Material Inventory: As of the week ending July 4, the agricultural film raw material inventory increased by 0.14 days to 8.18 days, the PE packaging film raw material inventory increased by 0.11 days to 8.04 days, and the PE pipe raw material inventory decreased by 0.07 days to 7.13 days [35]. - Import Profit: On July 4, the import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE were - 6 yuan/ton (a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous week), 126 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 604 yuan/ton (an increase of 57 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [44]. - Profit Margin: As of the week ending July 4, the oil - based linear cost was 7646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 338 yuan/ton from the previous period; the coal - based linear profit was 5869 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton from the previous period [46]. - Futures Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts: As of July 4, the plastic futures trading volume increased by 13,215 lots to 355,370 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest decreased by 22,961 lots to 580,694 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 100 to 5,831 lots [51][53]. 3.4 Polypropylene Key Data Tracking - Price Review: Polypropylene spot prices have weakly declined, with a price fluctuation range of 7166 - 7204 yuan/ton. As of July 4, the PP futures main contract 09 was reported at 7078 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous week. The term basis has narrowed, and the East China polypropylene basis has weakened to 64 yuan/ton [55]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: As of the week ending July 4, domestic polypropylene production was 77.37 million tons, a decrease of 1.55 million tons or 1.96% from the previous week; compared with the same period last year, it increased by 12.52 million tons or 19.31%. The average capacity utilization rate was 77.44%, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous period [59]. - Maintenance Loss: As of July 4, the domestic polypropylene device weekly loss was 21.632 million tons, a 11.93% increase from the previous week. Next week, the maintenance loss is expected to decline. The average capacity utilization rate is expected to slightly rebound to around 77.5% [63]. - Downstream Start - up: As of the week ending July 4, the overall downstream start - up rate of PP decreased. The plastic weaving start - up rate decreased by 1% to 42.2%, the BOPP start - up rate decreased by 0.14% to 60.27%, and the injection molding product start - up rate decreased by 0.72% to 51.33% [67]. - Downstream Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory and Orders: As of the week ending July 4, downstream raw material inventory decreased, finished product inventory pressure was not large, and orders were generally weak. The average order days of the polypropylene downstream product industry were 7.59 days, a 1.30% decrease from the previous week, and the downstream average start - up rate is expected to continue to decline next week [70]. - Inventory: As of July 4, polypropylene commercial inventory was 78.58 million tons. Production enterprise total inventory decreased by 1.49 million tons to 57.01 million tons, trader inventory increased by 1.46 million tons to 14.97 million tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.04 million tons to 6.57 million tons [77]. - Import and Export Profits: As of the week ending July 4, the PP import gross margin was - 523 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month - on - month. The export profit was - 1.59 yuan/ton, a slight increase from the previous period [81]. - Futures Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts: As of July 4, the PP futures trading volume decreased by 16,487 lots to 255,730 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest increased by 770 lots to 593,335 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 112 lots to 7,292 lots [90][92][94]. 3.5 Spread Tracking - The 09 - 01 spread of plastics fluctuates, and attention can be paid to positive spread opportunities. The 09 - 01 spread of PP may seasonally strengthen in fluctuations. The 09 - contract spread of plastic - PP may have an upward trend. As of July 4, the plastic 09 - 01 futures contract spread was 39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week. The PP 09 - 01 futures contract spread was 36, a decrease of 26 from the previous week. The 09 - contract L - PP spread was 204 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [97][101].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the pure benzene industry, covering its basic information, production processes, supply - demand situation, storage and transportation, pricing models, and supply - demand gap forecasts. It shows that the global and domestic pure benzene industries are in a state of development, with increasing production capacity and consumption, and in 2025, the domestic pure benzene supply is expected to be in a relatively loose state [22][25][63]. Summary by Directory 1. What is Pure Benzene? - Pure benzene, with the chemical formula C6H6, is a basic petrochemical raw material and a hazardous chemical. It can be divided into petroleum benzene (purity > 99%) and coking benzene (purity < 96%). Petroleum benzene is more widely used [5]. - It has a wide range of uses, being a key intermediate for many chemical products and also used as a solvent. It has specific physical and chemical properties and should be stored and handled with care due to its flammability and explosiveness [5]. 2. Pure Benzene Production Processes and Industrial Chain - The main global production processes include catalytic reforming of petroleum fractions, ethylene plant co - production, aromatics extraction from refinery reforming, toluene disproportionation in p - xylene plants, and coal tar extraction. The first four produce petroleum benzene, and catalytic reforming is the most important source [8]. - Pure benzene can also be obtained from other aromatics through processes like toluene disproportionation/shape - selective disproportionation and xylene isomerization. About 25% of pure benzene supply comes from hydrogenated benzene produced by coal tar extraction [9][10]. - In terms of the industrial chain, 42% of pure benzene is used for styrene production, 19% for caprolactam, 16% for phenol, 12% for aniline, and 6% for adipic acid. The downstream products are diverse and related to daily life [15]. 3. Pure Benzene Storage, Transportation, and Quality Standards - There are two quality inspection standards for pure benzene, GB/T 3405 - 2025 for petroleum benzene and GB/T 2283 - 2019 for coking benzene. Only petroleum benzene - 545 meets the Dalian Commodity Exchange's delivery standard [18]. - Pure benzene should be stored in a cool, dry, and well - ventilated warehouse, away from fire, heat, and power sources, at a temperature between 5°C and 25°C. Transportation vehicles should meet relevant standards, and transportation personnel should be professionally trained [20][21]. 4. Global Pure Benzene Supply - Demand Overview - In 2024, global pure benzene production capacity was about 83.31 million tons/year, with an average annual compound growth rate of 4.77% compared to 2020. Production is concentrated in Asia, North America, and Western Europe, with Asia accounting for over 50% of the global capacity [22]. - In 2024, global pure benzene consumption exceeded 65 million tons, a 30% increase compared to 2020. Northeast Asia had the largest consumption share (60%), followed by North America (13%) [25]. 5. China's Pure Benzene Supply Situation - In 2024, China's pure benzene production capacity reached 34.78 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 5%. In 2025, new production capacity of 2.41 million tons is planned, with 1.56 million tons of petroleum benzene and 0.35 million tons of hydrogenated benzene [26][29]. - China's pure benzene supply consists of domestic petroleum benzene, hydrogenated benzene, and imports. In 2024, their shares were 71%, 14%, and 15% respectively. Petroleum benzene capacity is concentrated in East, Northeast, and South China, while hydrogenated benzene capacity is concentrated in North and East China [32][34]. 6. China's Pure Benzene Import - Export Situation - China's pure benzene import - export mainly concerns petroleum benzene. In recent 5 years, the export volume has been less than 50,000 tons. The import dependence has increased from 11.6% in 2020 to 15% in 2024, and the import volume has also shown an upward trend [36]. 7. China's Pure Benzene Demand Situation - China is the world's largest pure benzene consumer and importer. The main downstream products are styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid [37]. - For styrene, in 2024, the effective production capacity was 21.922 million tons/year. In 2025, new production capacity of 2.1 million tons is planned, which may increase pure benzene demand by about 1.65 million tons [40]. - For caprolactam, 98% is used for nylon 6 production. In 2025, new production capacity of 650,000 tons is planned, which may increase pure benzene consumption by about 570,000 tons [44][46]. - For phenol, in 2025, new production capacity of 770,000 tons is planned, which may increase pure benzene demand by about 700,000 tons [49][51]. - For aniline, in 2025, new production capacity of 360,000 tons is planned, which may increase pure benzene consumption by about 310,000 tons [56]. - For adipic acid, in 2025, new production capacity of 500,000 tons is planned, which may increase pure benzene demand by about 380,000 tons [57]. 8. Pure Benzene Pricing Model - In the Asian pure benzene market, the FOB Korea price is the core benchmark, and the trading mode is mainly negotiation. The domestic market mainly uses contracts, with Sinopec's pure benzene listed price as the main reference, but the reference degree of third - party prices is increasing [60]. 9. Pure Benzene Supply - Demand Gap Forecast - From 2021 to 2024, the domestic pure benzene supply - demand gap was negative due to downstream capacity expansion. In 2025, it is expected to be positive, with an oversupply of about 1.2 million tons [61][63].