1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Currently, the most convenient deliverable for coking coal, Mongolian 5 clean coal (Tangshan area), has a premium of over 250 yuan/ton, with a warehouse receipt price of around 1200 yuan/ton. Considering the impact of blended coal, the warehouse receipt cost is about 1150 yuan/ton, close to the price of the near - month contract [2]. - The core driver of coking coal lies in policy factors. The policy side controls coal prices within a reasonable range through measures such as ensuring supply, safety inspections, and strict crackdowns on over - production. Additionally, the weakening steel price restricts the upside space of coking coal prices [2]. - The future story of coking coal revolves around the supply - side policies of coking coal. The policy side provides a floor, while the weak steel price limits the upside. For the 01 contract, the range is [1100 - 1300] [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost - The design of the futures delivery system makes the price of the near - month contract converge to the spot price. The warehouse receipt cost can be regarded as an anchor for the futures price and is worthy of investors' attention [3]. - The most convenient deliverable for coking coal futures is Mongolian 5 clean coal. If delivered in Tangshan and other places, there will be a premium of 170 yuan/ton, and combined with the quality premium, the premium will exceed 250 yuan/ton [3]. - The high premium rate makes it difficult for traders to resell the goods after taking delivery, resulting in weak willingness of coking coal buyers to take delivery. The Dalian Commodity Exchange solicited public opinions on the coking coal delivery quality standard on November 4, which will reduce the premium of each coking coal variety and increase the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 clean coal more than that of Shanxi coking coal, reducing the delivery cost - effectiveness of Mongolian coal to some extent [4][6]. - Due to year - end safety inspections, strict crackdowns on over - production, and a reduction in import quotas, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal have continued to rise. The market price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal has risen from 1460 yuan/ton to 1540 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt price is around 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton. Considering the impact of blended coal, the prices of coking coal contracts 2511 and 2512 are around 1150 yuan/ton (reference time: 2025/11/12) [7]. 3.2 Core Driving Factors of Coal Prices - In the black metal industry chain, the finished steel is weak this year, and the steel price is difficult to rise. The demand for steel in the building materials sector has decreased, and although there is a certain increase in the demand for coil products and steel exports, the increase cannot make up for the decrease in the building materials sector. With limited narrative space on the demand side, the market focus has shifted to the supply side [9]. - The core driver of coking coal price trends is policy - oriented. Policy meetings, documents, and coal mine safety accidents since July have shown that each inflection point of the coking coal market depends on policy - end drivers. The state effectively regulates coal prices to keep them fluctuating within a certain range [11]. - In addition to policy - end impacts, the steel price also restricts the upside of coking coal prices. The weak demand in the finished steel end makes it difficult for the main coking coal contract price to break through the [1330] position in the second half of the year [13]. 3.3 Future Market Suggestions - It is believed that the coking coal price will remain range - bound for the rest of the year. The future story revolves around the policy side, with the policy side providing a floor and the weak steel price limiting the upside. For the 01 contract, the range is [1100 - 1300] [15]. - For long - position investors, it is recommended to try to go long at the warehouse receipt cost level, and pay attention to the changes in the steel mill's hot metal production and coking coal supply. For short - position investors, they need to wait for the right opportunity, consider light - position layout at the high end of the range, and then gradually increase the position. They also need to pay attention to coal mine safety incidents and this year's safety inspection news. For hedgers and arbitrageurs, they should comprehensively consider warehouse receipts, storage, and capital occupation, and seize arbitrage opportunities in the volatile market [15].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the cumulative global iron ore shipments turned positive year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in Chinese imports [1]. - Among the Big Four mines, FMG and Vale had strong shipments, while Rio Tinto's shipments this year may be at the lower end of the guidance target. However, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged, so the iron ore supply will still be strong in Q4 [1]. - With a strong iron ore supply and negative feedback from finished products on the demand side, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and port inventories are increasing. The subsequent trend this year will be sideways with limited upside potential [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Shipments - As of Q3 2025, global iron ore shipments reached 1.20 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The increase in Q3 shipments (422 million tons) was mainly due to a significant increase in Chinese imports (326 million tons) [2]. - Structurally, as of Q3, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1.00 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, while those from non-Australia and Brazil regions were 200 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51% [4]. - As of September, China's cumulative iron ore imports were 919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.05%. In the first eight months, cumulative imports were negative year-on-year, but imports increased in the second half of the year due to higher steel mill profits and strong demand [4]. - In the first three quarters, China imported 560 million tons of iron ore from Australia, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, accounting for 61% of the total imports, and 196 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 21% [7]. 2. Big Four Mines 2.1 Summary of Supply in the First Three Quarters - As of mid-October 2025, the cumulative shipments of the Big Four mines were 877 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%. FMG had the largest increase, Vale's shipments increased slightly year-on-year, while BHP and Rio Tinto's shipments decreased [8]. Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target. The shipments from its Pilbara mining area increased significantly in Q3, but its shipments in the first three quarters decreased year-on-year due to the impact of a hurricane in Q1 [11]. - The grades of PB fines and lumps decreased. In Q3, the shipments of PB fines and lumps increased significantly, while those of SP fines and lumps decreased significantly [13]. - The progress of the Simandou project (designed capacity of 60 million tons/year) exceeded expectations. It is expected to load the first batch of iron ore in October and ship in November, earlier than expected by one month. The capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2026 [14]. FMG - FMG's production and sales increased year-on-year, and the guidance target remained unchanged. In Q3, its production was 50.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and shipments were 49.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [16]. - The guidance target for shipments in the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged at 195 - 205 million tons, and the C1 cost target remained unchanged at $17.5 - $18.5 per wet ton [16]. BHP - BHP's Q3 shipments decreased, and the guidance target remained unchanged. Its Q3 production in Western Australia was 70.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, mainly affected by the reconstruction of the Car Dumper 3 project at Port Hedland [19]. - The guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged, about 2 million tons higher than that of the 2025 fiscal year. The average iron ore selling price in Q3 2025 was $84.04 per ton, a 5% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [21]. Vale - Vale had strong production and sales in Q3. Its Q3 iron ore production was 94.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, mainly due to the production increase in the S11D in the northern system, Minas Centrais in the southeastern system, and Vargem Grande in the southern system [23]. - Vale's Q3 sales were 86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. It adjusted its product strategy, reducing the sales of high-grade IOCJ fines by 52% year-on-year and increasing the sales of medium-grade fines such as Brazilian Blend and Carajas fines [23]. 2.2 Outlook for Future Supply - Overall, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged. Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target, while Vale's production is moving towards the upper end of the target, and FMG has strong production and sales. Therefore, it is expected that the mine shipments will still be strong in Q4, and there will be some supply pressure on iron ore [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Domestic Supply - As of September, China's cumulative production of iron ore raw ore was 761 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%. The cumulative production of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 207 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.13%. China's demand for iron elements is highly dependent on imports [26]. 3.2 Demand - As of the end of September, the cumulative crude steel production was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and the cumulative steel production was 1.104 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%. The cumulative iron ore production of 247 sample steel enterprises was 648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [27]. - As steel mills have a certain profit margin, the iron ore production remains high, supporting the demand for iron ore. However, the weak demand for finished products is expected to reduce the demand for iron ore in the future [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Due to the contradiction between the strong supply and weak demand of iron ore, the port iron ore inventory has been continuously increasing, with certain inventory pressure. The steel mill inventory is currently maintained at around 90 million tons, and the overall inventory is at a low level [31]. - At the port end, due to the high inventory pressure last year, the year-on-year import of iron ore decreased in the early part of this year, and the port inventory continued to decline. However, with the recovery of steel mill profits and the increase in foreign ore shipments, the port has started to gradually accumulate inventory, and the current inventory is 150 million tons, with certain inventory pressure [33]. 4. Future Outlook - In the context of weak demand for finished products, the decline of iron ore in the first half of the year was smaller than that of coking coal and coke. After June, the prices of coking coal and coke continued to rise, while the increase of iron ore was less than that of coking coal and coke [34]. - Looking forward, this year's crude steel reduction is expected to be mainly through the independent production cuts of steel mills. The policy space for the demand side of finished products may be limited in the future. The supply side of iron ore remains strong, while the demand continues to weaken. Therefore, it is expected that iron ore will remain sideways in the future, but the upside potential is limited [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel terminal demand policies are limited, and due to factors such as environmental protection restrictions and steel mill losses, hot metal production has been continuously decreasing. However, coking coal and coke are prone to rising and difficult to fall under the tight supply - side situation (year - end safety inspections, mine accidents, stricter over - production inspections, and Mongolian imports), but the weak demand for finished steel restricts their upward space. It is expected that coking coal and coke will fluctuate strongly [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy 3.1.1 Overall Situation - Steel terminal demand policies are limited, and factors like environmental protection restrictions and steel mill losses lead to a continuous decline in hot metal production. The tight supply - side situation makes coking coal and coke prone to rising, but the weak demand for finished steel restricts their upward movement. The overall view is that coking coal and coke will fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.1.2 Coke - **Core**: The second round of coke price increase has been implemented, but most coking enterprises are in the red. Hot metal production is decreasing, coke production is falling, and inventory pressure is limited. - **Logic**: End - of - year demand - side policies may be limited, and the coal supply side dominates the market. Coking coal and coke are likely to rise but are restricted by weak finished - steel demand. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. - **Spot and Futures**: Spot prices have increased due to coking coal cost pressure, with two rounds of price increases in October. The main futures contract rose 9.49%. The coke term structure shows a Contango structure, and the curve's center of gravity has shifted upward. - **Price Spread**: The coke futures monthly spread is basically flat. - **Supply**: Neutral. Independent coking enterprises have reduced production due to cost pressure, while steel mill coke production has increased slightly. Coke production weakened slightly in October. - **Demand**: Bearish. Direct demand has weakened as steel mills' environmental protection restrictions and profit losses lead to a continuous decline in hot metal production. There is a price game between steel mills and coking enterprises. In terms of steel terminal demand, the real estate and infrastructure sectors in the building materials segment are weak, while the manufacturing and export sectors in the coil segment have some growth. - **Inventory**: Bullish. The overall coke inventory is at a low level. Steel mills purchase on demand, and independent coking enterprises' inventory is low. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips, with the coke 01 contract in the range of [1650 - 1820] [15]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal is tight, with strict year - end safety inspections and over - production control. Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, and inventory is at a low level. - **Spot and Futures**: Spot prices have risen due to continuous supply - side disturbances. The main futures contract rose 14.21%. The coking coal Contango curve's center of gravity has shifted upward and has flattened. - **Price Spread**: The coking coal futures monthly spread has narrowed. - **Supply**: Bullish. Mine accidents, safety inspections, stricter over - production checks, and Mongolian domestic political contradictions have led to a tight supply of coking coal. - **Demand**: Bullish. Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to purchase due to rising coal prices. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The overall inventory is at a low level. Steel mills and coking enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, and mine inventory has been continuously decreasing. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips, with the coking coal 01 contract in the range of [1150 - 1320] [17]. 3.2 Hot Events - In October, policy and supply - side disturbances continuously pushed up coal prices. For example, on October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement on regulating market price behavior, and a coal mine accident occurred in Hunan. On October 16, the central safety production inspection and patrol started. On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". On October 29, there were reports of tightened coal production restrictions at the end of the year and the shutdown of a Mongolian coal washing plant. These events had an impact on the futures prices of coking coal and coke [20]. 3.3 Steel Terminal Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Real Estate - In September, except for the narrowing of the cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction area, the cumulative year - on - year data of investment, available funds, and sales area in the real estate sector continued to weaken. In most cities, housing prices declined [23]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure - From January to September this year, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 3.69 trillion yuan, accounting for about 84% of the annual total, a year - on - year increase of 7.27 billion yuan. The use of special bonds, such as for debt reduction and land reserve projects, may limit their promotion of infrastructure [26]. 3.3.3 Manufacturing - Driven by policies, the added value of the manufacturing industry has increased year - on - year, especially in equipment, automobiles, and ships. The strong growth in the downstream manufacturing industry has increased the demand for coils, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong [29]. 3.3.4 Export - From January to September, China exported 87.955 million tons of finished steel, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. Steel exports have been strong this year, with exports shifting from coils to wire rods and billets due to anti - dumping measures and market changes [31]. 3.4 Coke Fundamental Analysis 3.4.1 Price Increase - In October, coke prices increased twice due to the firm coking coal prices and coking enterprise losses. There was a fierce price game between steel mills and coking enterprises, and automobile freight rates decreased slightly [35]. 3.4.2 Futures Price - The coke 01 contract closed at 1777 yuan/ton at the end of October, a monthly increase of 9.49%. Supply - side disturbances such as mine accidents and safety inspections pushed up the price. The basis decreased as the futures price rose more than the spot price [40]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Spread - The center of gravity of the coke price curve has shifted upward, and the slope of the Contango curve has become steeper. The monthly spread is basically flat [42][45]. 3.4.4 Supply - The daily production of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, while that of steel mills increased slightly. The total daily production of coke increased slightly. Due to cost pressure, coking enterprises' production is limited, and they want to start the third - round price increase. The supply - demand gap has decreased as hot metal production decreased [48]. 3.4.5 Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills decreased in October, and hot metal production decreased for five consecutive weeks. Weak demand for finished steel, high coal and iron ore prices, and environmental protection policies led to reduced hot metal production [56]. 3.4.6 Profit - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills has been decreasing since August, and more than half of the steel mills are in the red. Coking enterprises have been mostly losing money. The weak demand for finished steel and tight coking coal supply have put pressure on the profits of steel mills and coking enterprises, leading to a price game [58]. 3.4.7 Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased slightly. Independent coking enterprises' inventory is low, steel mills purchase on demand, and port inventory increased slightly [60]. 3.5 Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Price - Coking coal prices have strengthened due to supply - side disturbances and strong downstream restocking demand. The prices of some coking coal varieties have increased significantly [70]. 3.5.2 Futures Price - The coking coal 01 contract closed at 1286 yuan/ton at the end of October, a monthly increase of 14.21%. Supply - side factors pushed up the price, but the weak demand for finished steel limits the upward space. The basis decreased as the futures price rose [72]. 3.5.3 Inter - period Spread - The center of gravity of the coking coal Contango curve has shifted upward and flattened. The monthly spread has narrowed [74][77]. 3.5.4 Supply - The production of 523 sample mines is tight, and the daily production of raw coal and clean coal is at a low level. The operating rate of 314 coal washing plants decreased slightly, and the daily production of clean coal decreased. In September, coking coal imports increased year - on - year, but Mongolian imports were affected by domestic political contradictions [80][82][84]. 3.5.5 Inventory - The total coking coal inventory increased slightly but is still at a low level compared to the same period last year. Mine inventory decreased, while steel mill and coking enterprise inventory increased due to strong restocking意愿 [86].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina is expected to fluctuate mainly in November. The supply surplus pattern will continue, with cost support potentially weakening, but there are expectations of production cuts later [7]. - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in November and still has room for an upward trend. Although downstream demand growth is limited and consumption overdraft is obvious, the macro - positive factors will continue [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite in China is sufficient, and the alumina supply surplus pattern will continue. The demand is at a high level, but the inventory is at a four - year high, which will continuously pressure prices. The cost support may weaken marginally, and it may oscillate in November [7]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The supply is strong, with the main production areas' operating rates remaining high and limited subsequent increments. The downstream demand is weak overall, but the macro - positive factors from the approaching end of the Fed's balance - sheet reduction will continue, and it may oscillate strongly in November [7]. 02 Bauxite Supply Situation Review and Outlook - **Domestic production**: In September, China's bauxite production was 551900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, at a medium - low level in the past four years. Output in Guangxi and Guizhou decreased month - on - month, while that in Henan increased [10]. - **Imports**: From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 158 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.27%. The impact of the rainy season has weakened, and subsequent imports may rebound [14]. - **Shipments by country**: In September, shipments from Australia to China decreased month - on - month, while those from Guinea increased, reaching 6 million tons but a year - on - year decrease of 29.22%. As of October 24, port inventory was 27.7177 million tons, at a medium - high level in the past six years [19]. 03 Alumina Fundamental Situation Review and Outlook - **Cost and profit**: In September, the production cost decreased to 2808.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit fell to about 289.8 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rates in Guangxi, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Guizhou increased overall [23][24]. - **Production volume**: In September, global metallurgical alumina production was 12.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.95%, and China's was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69%, both at the highest levels in the past six years [29]. - **Net exports**: From January to September, China maintained a net export status. In September, the net import volume was - 186400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90%, reaching the lowest level in the past six years [34]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, China's alumina inventory was 4.732 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.5%, and the inventory continued to accumulate [39]. 04 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Side Situation Review and Outlook - **Cost and profit**: In September, the electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased to 15918 yuan/ton, and the production profit rose to 4849 yuan/ton [44]. - **Production volume**: In September, global electrolytic aluminum production was 6.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%, and China's was 3.6796 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73%, at a high and the highest level in the past six years respectively [49]. - **Imports**: In October, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum decreased. In September, the import volume was 517400 tons, at the highest level in the past six years [54]. - **Inventory**: In September, the molten aluminum ratio rose to 73.71%. As of October 31, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 605000 tons, at a relatively low level in the past six years. LME aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline and was at the lowest level in the past six years [59][63]. 05 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption Review and Outlook - **Downstream sectors' operating rates**: In September, the aluminum profile operating rate dropped to 41.9% and will remain weak; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate rose to 73.99% [68][69]. - **Exports**: From January to September, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles was 652200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.82%; that of aluminum plates and strips was 2.2913 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.67%; that of aluminum foils was 1.0141 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.57%; and that of aluminum cables was 198200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.28% [73][78]. - **Real estate**: From January to September, the new construction area was 45400 hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%; the construction area was 648600 hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; and the completion area was 31100 hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%, with the decline rates of new construction and completion narrowing [83][88]. - **Automobiles**: From January to September, China's cumulative automobile production was 24.3022 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.23%. In September, the production was 3.2758 million vehicles, the sales were 3.2264 million vehicles, and the production - sales ratio dropped to 0.9849 [91]. - **New energy vehicles**: From January to September, the cumulative production was 11.2201 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 34.71%. In September, the production was 1.617 million vehicles, the sales were 1.604 million vehicles, and the production - sales ratio dropped to 0.992 [96]. - **Household appliances**: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of the production and sales of three major white - goods all narrowed slightly. The cumulative production of refrigerators increased by 3.05%, air conditioners by 4.74%, and washing machines by 9.61%. The cumulative sales of refrigerators increased by 3.19%, air conditioners by 5.56%, and washing machines by 8.87% [101]. - **Photovoltaic**: In September, China's cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 1126.51GW, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%, and the cumulative newly - added installed capacity was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%, with the year - on - year growth rate narrowing significantly [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For oils, affected by multiple negative factors such as high - inventory of Malaysian palm oil and potential delay of Indonesia's B50 policy, domestic three major oils have been under pressure and declined. After the reduction in production is realized and Malaysian palm oil starts to destock, oils may stop falling and rebound. For protein meals, the cost side supports soybean meal, but the abundant domestic supply restricts its upward space. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal with a weak supply - demand situation [8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy 3.1.1 Oils - **Core Logic**: Multiple negative factors such as high - inventory of Malaysian palm oil and potential delay of Indonesia's B50 policy have led to the decline of Malaysian palm oil, which in turn has pressured domestic oils. However, considering Indonesia's low inventory and approaching low - production period, palm oil is not overly pessimistic. After the negative impact of Malaysian palm oil inventory build - up in October is released, palm oil is expected to rebound [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of October 31, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for December delivery was 3923 yuan/ton, with a negative gross profit of 248 yuan/ton on the futures market. The import cost of palm oil (November shipment) was 9251 yuan/ton, with a negative spot profit of 678 yuan/ton and a negative futures profit of 274 yuan/ton for November shipment. The theoretical import cost of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was 4459 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 765 yuan/ton and a futures crushing profit of 497 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in November is 955000 tons, rapeseed 19500 tons, and palm oil 39000 tons [8]. - **Demand**: In October, the total transaction volume of bulk soybean oil in key domestic oil mills was 240000 tons, a 29.12% month - on - month decrease. The palm oil trading volume was 22115 tons, a 36.07% month - on - month decrease. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 49900 tons, a 51.55% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key national regions was 2.3934 million tons, an 18.77% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and go long at low prices after the fundamentals improve. Pay attention to the reverse spread of soybean oil 1 - 5 contracts [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Core Logic**: The improvement in US soybean export expectations supports the cost of soybean meal, but the abundant domestic supply restricts its upward space. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal, with a weak supply - demand situation due to low inventory in coastal oil mills and reduced demand in the off - season of aquaculture [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: Similar to the oil section, the cost and profit data of soybeans and rapeseed are the same [11]. - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in November is 955000 tons, and rapeseed 19500 tons [11]. - **Demand**: In October, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 2.0506 million tons, a 34.51% month - on - month and 63.91% year - on - year decrease. The pick - up volume of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills was 41500 tons, a decrease of 60100 tons from the previous month [11]. - **Inventory**: In the 43rd week, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills was 1054600 tons, an 8.03% increase from the previous week, basically the same as the same period last year. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 8.02 days, a decrease of 1.58 days from the end of September. The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills was 7100 tons, an 8.97% decrease from the previous week and an 88.64% decrease year - on - year. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal was 528800 tons, which has been declining recently but remains at a high level [11]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see in the short - term for both single - side and arbitrage trading [11]. 3.2 Market Review of Oils and Meals in October 2025 - **Oils**: In October, the three major oils declined unilaterally, mainly due to the negative impact of palm oil. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory in September were higher than expected, and high - frequency data showed an increase in production and weak exports in October. Coupled with the potential delay of Indonesia's B50 policy, Malaysian palm oil fell sharply, leading the decline in the domestic palm oil sector. Although the cost side supported soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventory decreased from a high level, they were still dragged down by palm oil and declined [15]. - **Protein Meals**: In October, soybean meal and rapeseed meal first declined and then rebounded. In the first half of the month, they were weak due to factors such as abundant domestic supply and expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations. In the second half of the month, the improvement in US soybean export expectations supported the cost side, and they rebounded [28]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Oilseeds 3.3.1 International Situation - **US Soybeans**: The US government shutdown has suspended the release of USDA reports. It is expected that the soybean harvest is nearly complete. The dry weather in the main production areas is conducive to the harvest [36]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of October 25, the planting progress was 34.4%, slightly slower than the same period last year and the five - year average. In October, the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated downward. If China resumes purchasing US soybeans, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to decline [39][43]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In August, the production was 5.06 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 1.8% month - on - month. The inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons. It is expected that the production in 2025 will increase by 10% [47]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In September, the production was 1.8412 million tons, and the inventory reached 2.361 million tons, higher than expected. High - frequency data showed an increase in production in October, and the export data for October increased slightly. The inventory build - up was higher than expected [50][55]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: From August 1 to October 26, 2025, the cumulative export volume decreased by 62.24% year - on - year. The domestic crushing demand was strong [59]. 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - **Soybeans**: As of October 28, the procurement progress for November was 87.73%. It is estimated that the import volume in November will be large, and the inventory in oil mills remains at a high level. In October, the import cost increased, and the crushing profit was poor. The soybean crushing volume remained high [64][68][75]. - **Palm Oil**: In October, the import cost decreased significantly, and the import loss deepened. The import volume in September was low and rebounded in October. It is estimated that the import volume in November will be 39000 tons [84][89][93]. - **Rapeseed**: In October, the import cost increased, and the crushing profit decreased significantly. The import volume decreased sharply in September and is expected to recover slightly in November. The inventory in oil mills remains at a low level, and the crushing volume remains low [97][101][105]. - **Inventory of Three Major Oils**: As of October 24, 2025, the total inventory was at a high level, with a year - on - year increase of 18.77%. The inventory trends of the three major oils diverged, with soybean oil and palm oil continuing to build up inventory, and rapeseed oil inventory declining from a high level [116][122]. - **Demand for Oils**: In October, the demand for oils weakened after the festival. The transaction volume of soybean oil, palm oil, and the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil all decreased [124]. - **Inventory of Protein Meals**: It is expected that the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills will remain high in November. The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills is low, while the inventory of imported rapeseed meal remains at a high level but has been declining recently [128][137]. - **Demand for Protein Meals**: In October, the transaction volume of soybean meal decreased significantly, and the pick - up volume of rapeseed meal also decreased [132][143]. 3.4 Arbitrage Spread Tracking 3.4.1 Inter - period Spread of Oils - For some contracts, historical spread core intervals, means, medians, current spreads, and distances from the mean are provided, and some suggest paying attention to reverse - spread opportunities while others suggest waiting and seeing [148]. 3.4.2 Inter - variety Spread - For different oil varieties, historical spread core intervals, means, medians, current spreads, and distances from the mean are given. Some suggest waiting for opportunities to go long on palm oil and short on soybean oil, while others suggest waiting and seeing [152].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that in the 2025/26 period, the global oilseed supply will remain relatively loose, mainly due to the recovery of rapeseed and sunflower seed production and a slight increase in soybean production. The prices of oils and protein meals are expected to be weak in the early fourth - quarter, but may rise towards the end of the year if the La Nina weather is strong. [5][6][8] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a bearish view on oils and protein meals in the short - term, look for opportunities to go long on oils at the end of the year in the medium - term, and consider long - short spread trading strategies such as going long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil, and going long on the oil - meal ratio in the medium - to long - term. [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - **Supply**: The global oilseed supply in 2025/26 will be relatively loose. Rapeseed and sunflower seed production will recover, and soybean production will slightly increase. In the US, soybean planting area decreases but with high yield; in Argentina, the planting area drops and there is a high probability of La Nina, which may lead to significant production reduction; in Brazil, the planting area increases, expected to offset the reduction from the US and Argentina. In China, soybean imports are large, palm oil imports are low, and rapeseed inventory in oil mills is at a low level. [6] - **Demand**: Global vegetable oil consumption increases annually, with a 2.5% growth in edible consumption and a 5.13% increase in industrial consumption in 2025/26. India's edible demand and the bio - fuel policies of Indonesia, the US, and Brazil are key factors. Protein meal demand is expected to decline due to the reduction of sow inventory and other factors. [7] - **Outlook and Strategies**: Oils and protein meals are expected to be weak in the early fourth - quarter. If La Nina is strong at the end of the year, oils may rise. Short - term: bearish on oils and protein meals; Medium - term: look for long - oil opportunities at the end of the year; Arbitrage: long rapeseed oil and short palm oil, long oil - meal ratio. [8] 3.2 Oil and Oilseed Market Review - **Oil Single - sided Review**: In the first three quarters of 2025, oils showed a wave - like upward trend. They were affected by various factors such as US tariff policies, bio - fuel policies, and geopolitical conflicts. [11][14][15] - **Oil Spread Review**: The spreads between different oils fluctuated throughout the year. Palm oil was strong in some periods, while rapeseed oil was relatively resistant in others, leading to changes in spreads. [19][20] - **Protein Meal Single - sided Review**: Protein meal prices were affected by factors such as USDA reports, tariff policies, and soybean import costs. They showed an overall volatile trend. [23] - **Protein Meal Spread Review**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was mainly affected by tariff policies and market supply - demand changes, with significant fluctuations in some periods. [27] 3.3 Global Oil and Oilseed Supply - Demand Analysis - **Global Oilseed Supply**: In 2025/26, global oilseed production, consumption, and ending inventory all increase, indicating a relatively loose supply. [31] - **Global Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global vegetable oil supply and demand both increase, but demand growth is greater than supply, and ending inventory slightly decreases. [32] - **Global Protein Meal Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global protein meal supply and demand both increase, with ending inventory slightly rising, showing a loose supply. [37] - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global soybean supply is relatively loose. US soybean production decreases, while Brazil's production increases. Argentina's production may be affected by La Nina. [40] - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand**: In 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is similar to last year, but exports are weak and inventory is high. Indonesia's palm oil production recovers, exports increase, and inventory remains low. [90][94][98] - **Rapeseed and Sunflower Seed Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global rapeseed production recovers and inventory rises; global sunflower seed production increases and inventory slightly increases. [109][134] - **Oil Demand**: Global vegetable oil industrial consumption growth is expected to pick up in 2025/26. India's import demand is large, while the US bio - diesel production and consumption are low. Indonesia's bio - diesel demand increases, and Brazil's soybean oil demand rises due to the increase in blending ratio. [142][147][167] 3.4 Domestic Oil and Oilseed Supply - Demand Analysis - **Soybean Imports**: In 2025, from January to August, soybean imports increased by 4% year - on - year, mainly from South America. The proportion of US soybean imports decreased. [171] - **Soybean Inventory**: Oil mill soybean inventory is expected to be higher than the same period in previous years from October to December. [175] - **Soybean Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 29, 2025, the import cost and profit of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans vary. The purchase of Argentine soybeans is active due to good profit. [179] - **Oil Mill Operation Rate**: Since May, the oil mill operation rate has been high, and the soybean crushing volume in the first 38 weeks of 2025 increased by 5.06% year - on - year. [183] - **Palm Oil Import**: As of September 26, palm oil import losses are heavy, and the import volume is low. [190][192]

Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Quarterly Report for Q4 [1] Report Date - September 30, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In 2025, the global lithium resource market will see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand. The price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate around the high - cost curve, with an expected core range of 60,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [10]. - The cost curve of lithium resources will shift downward, with the 90%/80% capacity dividing lines corresponding to costs of 63,000/56,000 yuan/ton LCE respectively [10]. - The demand for new - energy vehicles and energy storage remains promising, with expected global electric vehicle sales to reach 22.2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 22%, and domestic sales to reach 16.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [10]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In the first half of the year, the price of lithium carbonate dropped by 22% due to supply - demand imbalance and cost reduction. Since the third quarter, it first rose by up to 45% under the influence of anti - involution policies and the suspension of Jiuxiaowo Mine, then fell back to an 18.73% increase [13]. 02 Supply Analysis Global Lithium Mines - The global primary lithium ore supply is expected to reach 1.66 million tons of LCE in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 22.26%. The supply growth rate has slowed down slightly due to factors such as the suspension of Jiuxiaowo Mine in China, the delay of some South American salt - lake capacity construction, and the reduction or suspension of high - cost projects in Australia [22]. Australian Lithium Mines - Australian lithium mine supply will maintain a steady growth of 12.2%. The production of major mines is expected to increase, and the cash - cost guidance of major mines has been lowered [23][25]. African Lithium Mines - African lithium mine output will maintain a high growth rate. In 2025, the supply is expected to reach 224,000 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 78%. Future cost - reduction potential is large [28]. South American Salt Lakes - South American salt - lake lithium resource supply is expected to reach 440,000 tons (in terms of LCE) in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. New projects will gradually ramp up production [31]. Chinese Lithium Mines - The growth rate of Chinese lithium mines has been revised down to 10.62% due to the suspension of Jiuxiaowo Mine. The production of lithium mica and salt - lake lithium has decreased, while the production of lithium spodumene has increased [32][53]. Lithium Ore Imports - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lithium ore imports were 3.85 million tons, basically the same year - on - year. The imports from African countries increased significantly [36]. Lithium Salt Imports - From January to August, the cumulative imports of lithium carbonate reached 153,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.5%. In August, the imports increased significantly [40]. Domestic Supply - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lithium carbonate production reached 596,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. The smelting capacity is sufficient [44]. 03 Demand Analysis Primary Demand - From January to August, the consumption of lithium carbonate increased by 45.62% year - on - year to 711,000 tons. The consumption of cathode ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide increased by 14.14%, 56%, and 31.39% respectively [56]. Inventory in the Industrial Chain - The industrial chain is in a complex game between high inventory pressure and structural demand growth. The upstream lithium carbonate inventory is high, while the inventory - to - sales ratio of the cathode and battery is relatively healthy. The inventory of new - energy vehicles in the downstream has started seasonal destocking [60]. Global New - Energy Vehicle Sales - It is expected that the global new - energy vehicle sales will reach 22.2 million units in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 22%. The domestic sales are expected to reach 16.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [64]. Demand for Lithium from New - Energy Vehicles - The proportion of pure - electric vehicles in new - energy vehicles has increased, and the average battery capacity per vehicle has also increased, driving strong demand for lithium [72]. Global Energy - Storage Market - It is expected that the global energy - storage new - installed capacity will reach 82GW/216GWh in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 28%/36%. China, the United States, and Europe lead the global energy - storage demand growth [78]. 04 Balance and Price Cost Curve - In 2025, the center of the lithium resource cost curve will shift downward further. The cost of non - integrated lithium spodumene smelting enterprises fluctuates greatly [83]. Profit Status - In the first half of the year, enterprises using externally purchased raw materials were in long - term losses. In the third quarter, the smelting profit rebounded from the bottom [87]. Supply - Demand Balance and Price - In 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate supply is expected to be 1.135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.36%, and the demand is expected to be 1.0905 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.39%. The annual surplus is expected to be 44,400 tons. The price will fluctuate around the high - cost curve, with a range of [60,000, 85,000] yuan/ton [90].

Report Title - Steel Q4 Report: Cost Support, Upside Depends on Policy [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals remain weak with high supply pressure, weak downstream demand for rebar, some support for hot-rolled coil demand, and strong exports. The market is expected to be dominated by macro policies in Q4, with limited downside and upside space depending on policy implementation. Steel is expected to fluctuate strongly within a certain range [7][12] - In Q3, the spot steel price increased by about 5%. The rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend and strengthened slightly, with macro policies dominating the market. The unilateral positions in the steel futures market remained high in Q3 and decreased at the end of the quarter [12] - As of the end of September, the rebar-iron ore ratio was 3.94, down 0.43 compared to the end of December. The hot-rolled coil - rebar spread (01 contract) was 199 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [12] Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoint Strategy - **Core**: The steel fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure, weak downstream demand for rebar, and strong exports. The market is expected to be dominated by macro policies in Q4, with limited downside and upside space depending on policy implementation. Steel is expected to fluctuate strongly within a certain range [12] - **Logic**: Q4 is expected to be dominated by macro policies. With policy support at the coal end, the downside space for steel is limited, but the upside depends on policy efforts [12] - **Spot and Futures Market**: In Q3, the spot steel price increased by about 5%. The rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend and strengthened slightly, with macro policies dominating the market. The unilateral positions in the steel futures market remained high in Q3 and decreased at the end of the quarter [12] - **Spread**: As of the end of September, the rebar-iron ore ratio was 3.94, down 0.43 compared to the end of December. The hot-rolled coil - rebar spread (01 contract) was 199 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [12] - **Strategy**: Consider interval operations. The rebar 01 contract is expected to trade between 3050 - 3400 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil 10 contract between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips [12] 02 Macro Level - In Q3, policy expectations dominated the black - sector market. Policies such as the construction of a unified national market, the upcoming release of a steady - growth plan for key industries, and the implementation of the "Anti - involution" policy had different impacts on the market, causing price fluctuations in the black sector [15] 03 Spot and Basis - **Spot Price**: In Q3, the rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend, with a spot price increase of about 5%. Policy expectations and coal price fluctuations were the main drivers of price changes [17] - **Futures Market**: The rebar futures showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend, with the main contract fluctuating around 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton. The hot-rolled coil futures also showed a similar trend, with stronger terminal demand and greater resistance to price drops [20][31] - **Basis**: The rebar basis fluctuated around 100 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil basis first decreased and then increased, fluctuating around 50 yuan/ton at the end of September [21][31] - **Open Interest**: The rebar futures open interest fluctuated around 3 million lots in Q3 and decreased at the end of the quarter. The hot-rolled coil futures open interest first increased and then decreased [22][34] - **Inter - period Spread**: The rebar futures price curve steepened, and the inter - period spread widened. The hot-rolled coil futures price curve showed a mild Back structure, and the 10 - 1 spread increased [25][40] 04 Spread - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio**: As of the end of September, the rebar-iron ore ratio was 3.94, down 0.43 compared to the end of December. There may be opportunities to short the rebar-iron ore ratio in the future [44][45] - **Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar Spread**: As of the end of September, the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread (01 contract) was 199 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton compared to the end of June. Consider shorting the spread at high levels in the future [47] 05 Supply - **Overall Production**: As of September 26, the cumulative production of five major steel products was 335 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The cumulative rebar production was 83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.05%, and the hot-rolled coil production was 129 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.44% [50] - **Regional Production**: In the East China region, the production of sample enterprises decreased in September. In the South region, the rebar production increased slightly, while in the North region, it decreased compared to last year [54] - **Production Process**: The long - process production was basically flat year - on - year, while the short - process production decreased. The iron water production of steel mills remained high, and the short - process electric furnace production was average, with a slight year - on - year decrease in scrap consumption [57][64] - **Cost Comparison**: The blast furnace production was more cost - effective than the electric furnace production this year [67] 06 Demand - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Demand**: As of the week of September 26, the cumulative apparent demand for rebar was 80.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.08 million tons, while that for hot-rolled coil was 124.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99 million tons [72] - **Profitability**: The profitability of steel mills remained above 50% in the first three quarters. The profits of blast furnace rebar production, electric furnace production, and hot-rolled coil production first increased and then decreased, with hot-rolled coil having relatively strong profits [74][83] - **Investment and Consumption**: From January to August, real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while infrastructure investment increased slightly. The cement and concrete shipments decreased year - on - year, while the added value of multiple manufacturing industries increased [86][101] - **Exports**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The exports of bars and billets increased significantly, while those of plates decreased [104] 07 Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 420,000 tons, and the social inventory was 10.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.77 million tons [108] - **Rebar Inventory**: The rebar inventory pressure was high, with the factory inventory and social inventory increasing year - on - year. The warehouse receipts at Jiangsu Huilong Port put pressure on the near - month contracts [112] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: The hot-rolled coil inventory continued to accumulate, with relatively high inventory levels [114]

Report Information - Report Title: Alumina & Electrolytic Aluminum Q4 Report - Prices Approach Cost, Limited Decline for Alumina; Consumption May Be Overdrawn, Center of Electrolytic Aluminum Shifts Down [1] - Report Date: September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Alumina - In Q3, the alumina market was in a supply surplus. After a short - lived price increase due to market sentiment, prices dropped as the market returned to the surplus fundamentals. The supply is expected to remain ample in Q4, but prices are close to the cost line. If prices fall below the cost line, production cuts may occur, potentially leading to a rebound. Short - term strategy is to sell on rallies, while long - term investors can consider buying near the cost line [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In Q3, aluminum prices fluctuated between Fed rate - cut expectations and market fundamentals. Domestic production capacity is at a high level, but the growth in supply is limited. Demand is weakening, especially in the real estate sector. Although there is some support from the macro - environment, prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term and gradually decline in the long - term [6]. Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoint and Strategy Alumina - **Market Review**: In Q3, the alumina market was in surplus. After a price spike due to "anti - involution" sentiment, prices fell as the market reverted to surplus fundamentals [5]. - **Supply**: The supply outlook is bearish. Although Guinea's ore shipments decreased in Q3, Australia's increased, and port inventories continued to build up, supporting high alumina plant operating rates [5]. - **Demand**: Demand is expected to be range - bound. High electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization ensures a large demand for alumina, but the growth in demand is limited as electrolytic aluminum capacity nears the "capacity ceiling" [5]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is bearish. Profitable production led to strong output and continuous inventory accumulation. As of September 26, inventory was 4.505 million tons, up 13.82% year - on - year [5]. - **Outlook**: The outlook is slightly bullish. In Q4, as the rainy season in Guinea ends, ore supply will increase, and prices may decline slightly. If prices fall below the cost line, production cuts could narrow the surplus, and prices may rebound. Short - term strategy is to sell on rallies, and long - term investors can buy near the cost line [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: In Q3, aluminum prices oscillated between Fed rate - cut expectations and fundamentals, with strong resistance at the 20,800 level. After a short - lived rise in mid - September, prices fell back [6]. - **Supply**: Supply is bearish. Domestic production capacity is at a high level, but future supply growth is limited as capacity approaches the "ceiling" [6]. - **Demand**: Demand is bearish. Domestic demand is weak, especially in the real estate sector, and exports of major aluminum products remain sluggish [6]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is slightly bearish. With a lower proportion of molten aluminum, social inventory has been building up since July - September, reaching 614,000 tons as of September 26, a medium - level in the past six years [6]. - **Outlook**: The outlook is slightly bearish. Supply will continue to pressure prices, but there is a risk of power - rationing - induced production cuts in the southwest in Q4. Consumption, which was strong in the first half, shows signs of being overdrawn, and demand growth is expected to slow. The market expects loose monetary policy from the Fed, providing some macro - support. Prices will be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [6]. 02 Bauxite Supply Review and Outlook - **Domestic Bauxite**: In August, China's bauxite production was 5.87 million tons, up 4.82% year - on - year, at a medium level in the past four years. Output in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, and Shanxi increased from July - August, with Henan reaching a two - year high [9]. - **Imports**: In August, imports decreased month - on - month due to the rainy season in Guinea but remained at the highest level in the past six years. From January - August, cumulative imports were 141.7563 million tons, up 31.63% year - on - year, with a narrowing growth rate [13]. - **Country - Specific Shipments**: From July - August, shipments from Australia to China increased, while those from Guinea decreased, falling to 4.607 million tons in August. As of September 19, port inventory was 28.76 million tons, at a medium - high level in the past six years [17]. 03 Alumina Fundamental Review and Outlook - **Profit and Production**: From July - August, production costs were stable at around 2,852 yuan/ton, and profit was about 400 yuan/ton in August, dropping to 270 yuan/ton in mid - September. Except for Shanxi, capacity utilization increased in other regions [22]. - **Output**: In July, global metallurgical alumina output was 12.952 million tons, up 0.91% year - on - year, reaching a six - year high. In August, China's output was 7.878 million tons, up 12.53% year - on - year, also a six - year high [28]. - **Net Exports**: From January - August, China maintained a net - export status. In July, net imports were - 103,500 tons, and in August, - 86,100 tons, at a very low level in the past six years [33]. - **Inventory**: Since June, inventory has been building up due to ample supply and strong production. As of September 26, inventory was 4.505 million tons, up 13.82% year - on - year [36]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Since May, the market has been in surplus. Although Guinea's shipments decreased in the rainy season, Australian imports compensated, leading to strong output. If prices fall below the cost line in Q4, production cuts may narrow the surplus [40]. 04 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Review and Outlook - **Cost and Profit**: In August, although alumina prices fell, electrolytic aluminum production costs rose slightly to 16,111 yuan/ton, and profit decreased to 4,548 yuan/ton [42]. - **Output**: From July - August, global electrolytic aluminum output was 12.545 million tons, up 1.1% year - on - year, at a six - year high. China's output was 7.566 million tons, up 2.6% year - on - year, with August's output reaching a six - year high [45]. - **Imports**: From July - September, the Shanghai - London ratio declined, and in August, imports decreased month - on - month to 495,600 tons, up 16.9% year - on - year, at a relatively high level in the past six years [49]. - **Inventory**: From July - August, the proportion of molten aluminum was low, and social inventory has been building up since July - September, reaching 614,000 tons as of September 26, a medium - level in the past six years. SHFE and LME inventories also increased, weakening inventory support [52][56]. 05 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption Review and Outlook - **Downstream Industry**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The real - estate slump continued to drag down the aluminum - profile industry. In July - August, the operating rate decreased to 42.27% in August and is expected to remain weak [62]. - **Aluminum Sheets and Strips**: From July - August, the operating rate first fell and then rebounded to 70.97% in August, lower than the end of last year [62]. - **Exports**: Trade barriers persisted, and aluminum - product exports showed no significant improvement. Aluminum - profile, sheet - strip, and foil exports decreased year - on - year, while aluminum - cable exports increased but accounted for a small proportion [66][71]. - **End - User Markets**: - **Real Estate**: The real - estate market remained weak. From January - August, new - construction area, construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year, with the decline in completion area accelerating [76][81]. - **Automobiles**: From January - August, China's automobile production was 21.026 million vehicles, up 12.64% year - on - year, with a slightly narrowing growth rate. The sales - to - production ratio was 1.0149 in August, indicating a healthy market [85]. - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From January - August, production was 9.6031 million vehicles, up 36.76% year - on - year, with a slightly narrowing growth rate. The sales - to - production ratio was 1.0029 in August [89]. - **Home Appliances**: In Q3, as government subsidies were exhausted, the growth rate of white - goods sales slowed down [94]. - **Photovoltaic**: From January - August, cumulative installed capacity was 1117.23GW, up 48.5% year - on - year, with a narrowing growth rate. Cumulative new - installed capacity was 230.61GW, up 64.73% year - on - year, also with a narrowing growth rate [99]. 06 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In Q3, high production capacity utilization led to high output. With the inflow of Russian aluminum and weakening consumption, the market turned to a slight surplus. In Q4, there is a risk of power - rationing - induced production cuts in the southwest, and demand is expected to weaken further, leading to an increase in the surplus to about 129,000 tons [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report PE (Polyethylene) - Cost side support is unstable, production profit shows mixed trends, supply is expected to increase, import may recover but less than previous years, inventory follows seasonal patterns with a slight de - stocking expected at the end of the year, and demand is in a weak recovery with concerns about future orders. The overall fundamentals are under pressure, especially in December. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities on rallies, with the main contract expected to trade between 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton. For inter - month arbitrage, pay attention to the L01 - 05 spread for reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. PP (Polypropylene) - Cost side support fluctuates, production profit is generally below zero, supply will remain abundant in the fourth quarter due to new capacity and restarted devices, import may increase seasonally but less than before, export is expected to be stable, and demand is weak with limited upward drive. The overall supply - demand structure is loose, especially in December. It is advised to short - sell on rallies, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 6800 - 7200 yuan/ton. Also, focus on the 01 - 05 contract spread for reverse arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In July, new capacity and restarted devices increased supply pressure, but oil price rebound and policy support boosted polyolefin prices. In August, oil price was weak, and supply and demand were in a state of "supply - strong, demand - weak". In September, cost support weakened, and the supply - demand contradiction was prominent, leading to a continuous decline in polyolefin futures prices. Taking LLDPE as an example, its price first rose slightly and then fell continuously in the third quarter, with a high of 7412 yuan/ton and a low of 7301 yuan/ton [10][12]. 3.2 PE: Weak Demand Support in Peak Season, Rising Future Supply Pressure Supply Side - **Maintenance**: The maintenance loss is expected to decrease seasonally in the fourth quarter. As of September 26, the current maintenance loss was 11.37 tons, and the total maintenance - related capacity in the fourth quarter is 258 tons, mainly concentrated in November and December [21][26]. - **New Capacity**: There will be 240 tons of new PE capacity in the fourth quarter, mainly oil - based devices [29]. - **Operation Rate**: The capacity utilization rate is expected to rise seasonally in the fourth quarter. As of September 26, it was 81.84%, up 4.6% from the end of the previous quarter [34]. - **Output**: Output is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter but with a seasonally narrowing growth rate. In August, it reached 282.72 tons/month, a 17% increase from the same period last year [39]. - **Import Profit and Volume**: The average import profit in the third quarter showed a quarter - on - quarter recovery. In August, the import volume decreased, and it is expected to recover in the fourth quarter but be less than previous years [43][48]. - **Production Profit**: LDPE and HDPE production profits recovered, while LLDPE production profit declined overall [53]. - **Inventory**: In the third quarter, inventory followed seasonal patterns. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to first rise and then fall, with low pressure on social inventory accumulation and a slight de - stocking expected at the end of the year [57]. Demand Side - **Downstream Product Operation Rate**: In the seasonal peak season, the operation rates of agricultural film and packaging film gradually recovered but were weaker than in previous years. The operation rates of hollow and drawing products also recovered quarter - on - quarter but were significantly lower year - on - year [61][65]. - **Downstream Product Orders**: Orders increased quarter - on - quarter but were still inferior to previous years [69]. - **Downstream Product Inventory**: With the arrival of the peak season, the raw material inventory of downstream products increased quarter - on - quarter but was significantly lower year - on - year [73]. 3.3 PP: Continuous Supply Pressure, Insufficient Demand Drive Supply Side - **Operation Rate**: It is expected to first rise and then fall in the fourth quarter. As of September 26, the overall operation rate was 75.52%, down 3.78% from the end of the previous quarter [79]. - **Maintenance**: The maintenance plan in the fourth quarter is less than in the third quarter. The estimated maintenance loss in the third quarter was 209 tons, and it is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter [87]. - **Capacity**: There will be 295 tons of new PP capacity in the fourth quarter, mainly in December [89]. - **Output**: Output is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter due to new capacity and restarted devices [93]. - **Import**: Import profit decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the import volume in August decreased. It is expected to recover in the fourth quarter [97]. - **Export**: The export volume is at a high level in recent years and is expected to be stable in the fourth quarter [101]. - **Production Profit**: Production profits varied, with an overall fluctuation below zero [105]. - **Inventory**: Trader inventory may steadily decrease, producer inventory is not expected to accumulate significantly, and port inventory may slightly increase [109]. Demand Side - **Downstream Product Operation Rate**: The operation rate first decreased and then increased in the third quarter, similar to the second quarter, but most were lower than in previous years. It is expected to have little improvement in the fourth quarter [113]. - **Downstream Product Orders**: Orders are expected to first increase and then decrease in the fourth quarter [117]. - **Downstream Product Inventory**: The pressure on raw material and finished - product inventory is not high currently, but there is an expectation of accumulation in the fourth quarter [119]. - **Downstream End - User Situation**: The production of three major white - goods showed different trends in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, air - conditioner production may increase, while refrigerator and washing - machine production may first rise and then fall, with limited production increase due to high inventory [124][128]. 3.4 Spread Structure and Warehouse Receipt Quantity - **Inter - month Spread**: The L01 - 05 spread is expected to first rise and then fall, the PP01 - 05 spread is expected to weaken, and the L - PP spread is expected to fluctuate [133][135]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The warehouse receipt quantities of PE and PP have continuously climbed to high levels in recent years [138]. 3.5 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **PE**: The supply - demand difference is expected to be relatively balanced from October to November, but the supply pressure will significantly increase in December [146]. - **PP**: The overall supply - demand structure in the fourth quarter is loose, with the most prominent supply pressure in December [147].