消息影响，油脂震荡整理

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that this week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom. In the later stage, the palm oil - producing areas will enter the production - increasing cycle, while the purchasing enthusiasm of major demand countries is low, and the B40 policy is still not implemented. Under multiple negative factors, palm oil faces significant upward pressure. South American soybean harvest is basically settled, and the US soybeans will enter the planting period. The previous outlook forum predicted a significant year - on - year decline in the new - crop planting area of US soybeans. The Trump administration's requirement for oil and biofuel producers to reach a consensus on the next - stage biofuel policy brings some positive factors to the edible oil market. Domestic edible oils have entered the seasonal consumption off - season, and with the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the factory operating rate will increase again. It is more likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate and consolidate [9][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom. The Y2505 soybean oil contract fell 0.45% to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, the P2505 palm oil contract remained flat at 9,088 yuan/ton, and the OI2505 rapeseed oil contract rose 1.16% to close at 9,271 yuan/ton [5][30]. 3.2 Important Information - Palm oil: From March 1 - 25, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 7.01%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.33%, and the output increased by 5.1% month - on - month. The export volume from March 1 - 25 was 835,732 tons, a decrease of 8.08% compared with the same period last month. Malaysian palm oil rose 1.01% [7][30]. - Soybean oil: Before the release of the US planting intention and quarterly inventory report, analysts expected that the US soybean planting area in 2025 would be 83.762 million acres, lower than last year's 87.05 million acres and the 84 million acres estimated by the USDA outlook forum. The expected soybean inventory on March 1, 2025, was 1.901 billion bushels, the highest level in the same period in three years, a 3.0% increase compared with the same period in 2024. US soybeans rose 1.21% this week [7][30]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,670 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [12]. - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,300 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of March 21, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 21,000 tons to 1.004 million tons. On March 26, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 33,000 tons to 367,000 tons [16]. - As of March 27, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,764,290 tons [19]. - As of March 28, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 374 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [20]. - As of March 28, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 582 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [21]. - As of March 28, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 29 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [23]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis The content is basically the same as the core view, emphasizing that the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom this week, and it is more likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate and consolidate [31].