新世纪期货交易提示（2025-3-31）-2025-03-31

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Decline [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Decline [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Copper: First decline then rise [4] - Aluminum: Oscillation and consolidation [6] - Zinc: Oscillation and rebound [6] - Nickel: Oscillation and bottom - building [6] - Lithium carbonate: Bottom - building [6] - Stainless steel: Bottom - building [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [6][8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation with a downward bias [8] - Cotton: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Cotton yarn: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Rubber: Weak [8] - Red dates: Oscillation [8] - Sugar: Stop falling and rise [8] - Pulp: Weak - biased oscillation [8] - Logs: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation, buy on dips [9] - MEG: Look at the far - month contract [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Buy on dips, focus on processing margin [9] - Plastic: Oscillation [9] - PP: Oscillation [9] - PVC: Oscillation [11] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [11] - Apples: Stable with a downward bias [11] - Corn: Oscillation with a downward bias [11] - Eggs: Oscillation [11] 2. Core Views - The steel industry in Xinjiang reduces daily crude steel production by 10%, leading to a collective rebound in the black sector, with improved steel enterprise profitability and a slight increase in daily hot metal production [2] - The supply - surplus pattern of coke remains unchanged, and the twelfth round of price cuts has been initiated, with coal and coke following the trend of finished products [2] - The black varieties are in the process of near - month position transfer, and the market is oscillating upwards. The demand for rebar is in a weak recovery stage [2] - The glass futures have a short - term rebound, and the market is concerned about the recovery of demand and policy adjustments [2] - The large - state - owned commercial banks' capital replenishment has made substantial progress, and the economy shows a good internal - external balance [4] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the short - term upward trend is expected to continue due to various factors [4] - The copper supply is tight, and the price is expected to first decline then rise [4] - The aluminum price has strong support at the bottom, and the long - term trend is positive [6] - The medium - long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is in the bottom - building stage [6] - The supply of nickel increases, and the price is under pressure in the medium term [6] - The oil market is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and the meal market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [6] - The cotton market is oscillating with an upward bias, and the rubber market has a core upward drive despite inventory concerns [8] - The sugar price is expected to stop falling and rise, and the pulp price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [8] - The log price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation, and the chemical products have different trends [9] - The agricultural products such as live pigs, apples, and corn have different market trends, and the egg price is oscillating at a low level [11] 3. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: Affected by the reduction of steel production in Xinjiang, the black sector rebounds. The steel mill profitability rate is 53.68%, an increase of 25% year - on - year. The daily hot metal production rises to 237.28 tons. Stable investors can focus on the 05 - 09 positive spread operation [2] - Coal and coke: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The twelfth round of price cuts is initiated, and the market follows the trend of finished products, focusing on the recovery of downstream terminal demand [2] - Rebar and coil: The black varieties are in the position transfer period, and the market oscillates upwards. The rebar is at a neutral valuation level, and the demand is in a weak recovery stage [2] - Glass: The glass futures have a short - term rebound, and the market is concerned about the recovery of demand and policy adjustments [2] Financial and Precious Metals - Stock Index Futures/Options: The large - state - owned commercial banks' capital replenishment has made progress, and the economy shows a good internal - external balance. The bullish sentiment declines, and the market oscillates narrowly [4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of the ten - year Treasury bond is flat, and the market funds are generally stable. The Treasury bonds are in short - term consolidation [4] - Gold and Silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the short - term upward trend is expected to continue due to factors such as geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [4] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper supply is tight, and the price is expected to first decline then rise due to factors such as the reduction of long - term benchmark processing fees [4] - Aluminum: The aluminum price has strong support at the bottom due to supply contraction and cost increase, and the long - term trend is positive [6] - Other Non - ferrous Metals: The medium - long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is in the bottom - building stage. The supply of nickel increases, and the price is under pressure in the medium term [6] Agricultural Products and Oils - Oils: The oil market is expected to have wide - range oscillations due to factors such as the potential increase in palm oil export tax and the South American soybean harvest [6] - Meals: The meal market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to factors such as the South American soybean supply pressure and the expected reduction of new - season US soybean area [6] - Cotton and Rubber: The cotton market is oscillating with an upward bias, and the rubber market has a core upward drive despite inventory concerns [8] - Sugar and Pulp: The sugar price is expected to stop falling and rise, and the pulp price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [8] - Logs: The log price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation due to factors such as inventory changes and price declines [9] Chemical Products - PX and PTA: The PX price is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and the PTA price follows the raw material end and can be bought on dips [9] - MEG and PR: The MEG has a short - term rebound, and the PR market is in a weak - biased oscillation [9] - PF and Plastics: The PF price is expected to be strong - biased, and the plastic and PP markets are oscillating [9] - PVC: The PVC market is oscillating, with short - term inventory reduction but still large supply - demand contradictions [11] Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The pig price is expected to be weak after the festival, and attention should be paid to the slaughter expectations and large - pig sales [11] - Apples: The apple sales are slow during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the market is stable with a downward bias [11] - Corn: The corn price breaks through the oscillation range, and it is expected to rise after a short - term callback [11] - Eggs: The egg price is oscillating at a low level due to supply and demand factors [11]