华联期货PVC二季报：继续关注政策刺激下需求复苏节奏

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the PVC futures market showed a downward - oscillating trend with a narrowing decline. The cost - driven force was insufficient due to the continuous decline in coal prices and the low position of calcium carbide prices. Although the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali was acceptable, it was difficult to have a negative feedback on the PVC operating rate from the profit side. The report suggests continuing to focus on the implementation of domestic macro - stimulus policies, the rhythm of demand recovery, and the speed of inventory depletion. The mid - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the 2509 contract should pay attention to the support around the 5000 integer mark. If there are further policies exceeding expectations and the building materials sector improves, there may be opportunities for bargain - hunting [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quarter - View and Strategy - Market Review: In Q1, the PVC futures market oscillated downward. In January, it oscillated widely due to multiple factors; in February, it oscillated narrowly due to inventory accumulation and weak supply - demand; in March, it weakened again due to the under - expected demand recovery and the weakness of the black building materials sector [5]. - Supply: The PVC plant operating rate first increased and then decreased in Q1, with an end - of - quarter rate of 79.81%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71 percentage points. The overall output increased slightly. The maintenance loss first decreased and then increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation of spring maintenance and the rhythm of new production capacity [5]. - Demand: The operating rate of downstream products first decreased and then increased seasonally in Q1, with an end - of - quarter comprehensive operating rate of 48.91%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57 percentage points, at the lowest level in history. Hard products performed the weakest. The real estate was in a weak recovery rhythm and was difficult to effectively drive domestic demand. Overseas, attention should be paid to the impact of India's anti - dumping on PVC powder exports [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory first increased and then decreased seasonally. At the end of Q1, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 80.53 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.56%, and the enterprise inventory was 44.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.01%. The overall inventory was in the depletion process, but the absolute quantity was still at a relatively high level [5]. - Viewpoint: The cost - driven force was insufficient. It was difficult to have a negative feedback on the PVC operating rate from the profit side. Continue to focus on domestic macro - stimulus policies, demand recovery, and inventory depletion [5]. - Strategy: Treat it as weakly oscillating in the mid - term. Pay attention to the support around the 5000 integer mark for the 2509 contract. There may be bargain - hunting opportunities if there are further policies exceeding expectations [5]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - PVC Contract Spreads: In Q1, the 1 - 5 spread declined slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread also narrowed slightly. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintained a contango pattern, indicating that the reality was weaker than expected. The 9 - 1 spread was narrowly sorted, and the negative basis of the main contract narrowed slightly [12][13]. 3.3 Supply Side - Capacity and Output: As of now, the effective PVC production capacity is 27.82 million tons. From January to February 2025, the cumulative domestic PVC output was 3.973 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79%. The effective production capacity of calcium carbide - based PVC was 20.15 million tons, accounting for about 72.4%, and the cumulative output from January to February was 2.9452 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53%. The effective production capacity of ethylene - based PVC was 7.67 million tons, accounting for about 27.6%, and the output from January to February was 1.0278 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52% [16][19][22]. - Operating Rate and Maintenance: The PVC operating rate first increased and then decreased in Q1, with an end - of - quarter rate of 79.81%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71 percentage points, at a neutral level in recent years. The maintenance loss first decreased and then increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation of spring maintenance. At the end of Q1, the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.89%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 74.35%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.03 percentage points, at a low level in the same period, and its operating rate fluctuated greatly [25][27]. - Imports: From January to February 2025, the cumulative PVC imports were 39,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.19%. The import volume of plastics and their products in China was 3.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.24% [30]. 3.4 Demand Side - Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio: From January to February 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 3.4024 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.78% [34]. - Downstream Operating Rate: The operating rate of downstream products first decreased and then increased seasonally in Q1, with an end - of - quarter comprehensive operating rate of 48.91%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57 percentage points, at the lowest level in history. Hard products performed the weakest, and the pipe operating rate was 47.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5 percentage points. At the end of Q1, the operating rate of profile enterprises was 42.65%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.68 percentage points; the operating rate of film soft products was 70.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.32 percentage points [37][40]. - Exports: From January to February 2025, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 610,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.36%, mainly sold to India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc., with over 50% exported to India. The cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 693,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.52%, mainly sold to the United States, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, and Australia [41][42]. - Real Estate and Infrastructure: In January - February 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 9.8% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The construction area, new construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate all showed year - on - year declines. With the support of "stabilizing the real estate market" policies, the real estate market may have a "small spring" in March. In terms of infrastructure, the full - caliber and narrow - caliber (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water) infrastructure investment growth rates in January - February were 10.0% and 5.6% respectively, with an increase of 3.4 percentage points and a decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared with December last year [45]. 3.5 Inventory - Social Inventory: The social inventory first increased and then decreased seasonally. At the end of Q1, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 805,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.56%; the small - sample social inventory (21 companies) was 469,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.42% [47]. - Enterprise Inventory: At the end of Q1, the enterprise inventory was 440,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.01%. The PVC standard warehouse receipts decreased from the high level in Q1, and attention should be paid to the re - registration of warehouse receipts later [52]. 3.6 Valuation - Lancoke and Calcium Carbide: In Q1, the Lancoke price oscillated and declined to the lowest level in history, and the calcium carbide price first decreased and then increased but was still at the weakest level in the same period. The calcium carbide production profit generally recovered, which was mainly affected by power restrictions in some areas and PVC demand [56]. - Ethylene and Vinyl Chloride: In Q1, the ethylene price first increased and then decreased with small fluctuations, and the vinyl chloride price oscillated and declined slightly. Both were at the weakest levels in recent years [59]. - Liquid Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine: The liquid caustic soda price first increased and then decreased with large fluctuations, and the liquid chlorine price first decreased and then increased due to the disturbance of market expectations and weak reality [62]. - PVC Profit: In Q1, the production profit of calcium carbide - based PVC first narrowed the loss and then expanded it again, and the loss of ethylene - based PVC continued to expand. The production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali oscillated upward [65][68].