Workflow
股指周报：市场进入分水岭时刻-2025-03-31
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-03-31 07:13

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, IF2504 closed at 3908.8 points, up 2.8 points or 0.07% from the previous week; IH2504 closed at 2680.4 points, up 6.0 points or 0.22%; IC2504 closed at 5869.6 points, down 44.0 points or 0.74%; IM2504 closed at 6212.6 points, down 105.6 points or 1.67% [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 910.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profit was 348.77 billion yuan, up 2.1%; joint - stock enterprises' profit was 673.92 billion yuan, down 2.0%; foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit was 230.46 billion yuan, up 4.9%; private enterprises' profit was 220.99 billion yuan, down 9.0% [5] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of March 31, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.49 times, the quantile was 63.9%, and the PB was 1.86 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.43 times, the quantile was 48.43%, and the PB was 1.35 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.72 times, the quantile was 65.29%, and the PB was 1.21 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 38.3 times, the quantile was 50.39%, and the PB was 2.13 times [9] 4. Other Data - The stock - bond spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas: one is (1 / index static P/E) - 10 - year treasury bond yield; the other is 10 - year treasury bond yield - index static dividend yield [15] 5. Core View - During the trading cycle from March 24 to March 28, the market showed a weak and volatile adjustment trend. As of the close on Friday, the total A - share trading volume was lower than the five - day average for five consecutive days. The average A - share price fell 2.28% this week, and the amplitude was only 3.11%, hitting the lowest level since mid - February. The current market is at a critical turning point. Investors are advised to maintain their existing positions, wait and see cautiously, and make decisions after further observing the market trend [18]