长江期货苹果月报-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The price of apples is expected to strengthen, with future prices likely to be strong and showing an upward trend in oscillations [2][48] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Trend Review - In March, the center of gravity of apple futures shifted upward, with the price ranging from 7,000 to 7,800. The apple basis was 1 yuan, a decrease of 22 yuan compared to the previous month [6][7] 2. Supply - Side Analysis - Main Producing Area Spot Prices: In Shandong Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples were 3.50 - 4.00 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples were 4.00 - 4.50 yuan/jin, general goods were 2.50 - 3.00 yuan/jin, and third - grade apples were 1.80 - 2.10 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the prices of orchard - farmer general goods starting from 70 in the warehouse were 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin, merchant goods were 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and 70 high - grade inferior apples were 2.7 - 2.9 yuan/jin [15] - Cold - Storage Inventory: As of March 26, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country was 4.7182 million tons, a decrease of 287,900 tons compared to the previous week. Shandong's current inventory was 1.73 million tons, 513,300 tons less than the same period last year, and Shaanxi's current inventory was 1.672 million tons, 357,500 tons less than the same period last year [17][24] 3. Demand - Side Analysis - Domestic Social Sales Data: From January to February 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate in December last year, in line with market expectations. Among the 16 commodity categories of units above the designated size, 14 categories had year - on - year positive growth in retail sales [27] - Domestic CPI: In February, the year - on - year growth rate of the domestic CPI was - 0.7%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous value. The CPI food item increased by - 3.3% year - on - year, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous value; the CPI non - food item increased by 0.1% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous value [30] - Sales Area Delivery Situation: In the South China market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles in the Guangdong Chalong market increased week - on - week, with an average of about 42.25 vehicles per day during the week. The market was boosted by the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, and the arrival of goods remained high. The market was selling well, but high - price transactions were limited [34] - Storage Merchant Profits: In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.5 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin compared to the previous week [38] - Related Fruit Market: As of the 13th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.565 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg compared to the 12th week. The average wholesale prices of bananas, pineapples, watermelons, Ya pears, and Kyoho grapes increased week - on - week, while the average wholesale price of Fuji apples decreased by 0.06 yuan/kg [41] - Market Sentiment: The outbound of late - Fuji apples in the producing areas accelerated month - on - month. There was not much remaining orchard - farmer supply in the western region, and the trading shifted to merchant goods, with prices continuing to rise. There was a sentiment of bullishness and reluctance to sell among orchard farmers and merchants. In the sales areas, the number of arrival vehicles increased, the market delivery improved, and the market sentiment was mostly bullish [45] 4. Logic and Outlook - The current apple warehouse inventory in the country is significantly lower than last year, reaching a recent low. After the Spring Festival, consumption has increased year - on - year, and the shipment has accelerated. Before May, consumption can maintain a certain intensity, which will strengthen the impact of inventory reduction. It is expected that future prices will be strong, and attention should be paid to weather changes that may affect next year's production [48]