镍：周期底部，警惕政策端扰动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on nickel is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's presidency has increased global trade friction, and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain. However, domestic policies are being continuously strengthened, and loose liquidity is expected to support the non - ferrous metals sector. Macro - sentiment will have an impact on nickel prices. Fundamentally, primary nickel production capacity is continuously expanding, the surplus of primary nickel is intensifying, and the trend of global nickel inventory accumulation is hard to reverse. But nickel prices are at the bottom of the cycle, and frequent policy disturbances in resource - rich countries may boost the upward elasticity of nickel prices. In the medium - to - long term, there is still a lot of primary nickel production capacity to be put into operation. If policy/supply - side disturbances subside, nickel prices may still face a correction risk. The cost support of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices) can be focused on. Also, be vigilant about the impact of domestic and foreign macro - events on the non - ferrous metals sector [1][110][111] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since the beginning of 2025, Trump's tariff hikes on various countries have led to concerns about the US economy and inflation. The weakening of the US dollar index has boosted the non - ferrous metals sector, and policy disturbances in nickel - resource countries have caused nickel prices to rise oscillatingly. As of March 21, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel contract was 129,190 yuan/ton, up 3.76% from the beginning of the year, and the LME nickel closed at $16,210/ton, up 5.49% from the beginning of the year. Affected by the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the increase in the domestic market was less than that in the overseas market [7] 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Re - inflation Risk - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in March, slowed down quantitative tightening in April, and the dot - plot shows that there may still be two interest - rate cuts in 2025. The Fed has lowered its economic expectations for the next three years, raised unemployment and inflation expectations. The labor market in the US is relatively stable, but inflation still faces upward pressure due to Trump's policies [11][16] 3.2.2 Domestic Economic Situation - In 2025, the domestic economy started smoothly. The manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. Social financing increment and new RMB loans in February showed certain changes. The government's fiscal and monetary policies are more proactive, aiming to expand domestic demand and boost commodity demand [23][24] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Side - Resource - Country Policy Disturbances: Indonesia has introduced policies to restrict the expansion of nickel smelting capacity. Policy disturbances have led to a rise in nickel ore premiums. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has decreased, and port nickel ore inventories are lower than last year [33][40] - Nickel Iron Production: Domestic nickel - iron production has increased slightly, and Indonesia's nickel - iron projects are still being put into production. The price of nickel iron has risen due to cost increases and increased procurement demand from steel mills [47] - Nickel Intermediate Products: The import of nickel intermediate products has maintained a high growth rate. The production capacity of nickel wet - process intermediate products in Indonesia is expanding, and the production of MHP and high - grade nickel matte has increased [56][58] - Pure Nickel Supply: Domestic refined nickel production has increased significantly. Both imports and exports of refined nickel have increased at the beginning of the year. The valuation of pure nickel can be anchored to the cost range of integrated electrolytic nickel production lines [64][69][76] 3.3.2 Demand Side - Stainless Steel: High - level production of stainless steel continues. In 2025, the production of stainless steel in China and Indonesia has increased. The demand for stainless steel has certain resilience, but there is pressure on warehouse receipts [79][86] - Sulfuric Acid Nickel: The production of sulfuric acid nickel has declined year - on - year due to supply disturbances and cost pressures. The low proportion of ternary batteries in the new - energy vehicle market has affected the growth rate of nickel demand [90][94] - Alloy and Special Steel: The consumption of nickel in alloy and electroplating maintains a certain growth rate, but the base is low, so it has limited impact on nickel consumption [97] 3.3.3 Inventory and Market Structure - Global nickel inventory has continued to accumulate in the first quarter. LME nickel inventory has reached a new high in more than three years, and domestic social inventory is also on the rise. The surplus pattern of primary nickel continues, but the surplus may narrow in the second quarter [103][108]