固定收益点评报告：小企业景气度大幅回升

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5, up 0.3 month-on-month; the non-manufacturing PMI rose 0.4 to 50.8; the composite PMI increased 0.3 to 51.4. The economy is expanding at a faster pace with enhanced business activity [1]. - Manufacturing shows strong capacity release and improved demand, with marginal improvement in profit margins. Small enterprises' sentiment has significantly increased, and high-tech manufacturing leads the way [2][3]. - The construction industry in the non-manufacturing sector has seen a continuous rise in business sentiment, while the service industry maintains a stable and slightly expanding trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work and production accelerated, with the production index rising 0.1 to 52.6 in March, reaching a new high since March 2023 [2]. - On the demand side, new orders increased significantly by 0.7 to 51.8, with both external and domestic demand improving. However, the new export orders, though up 0.4 to 49, remained in the contraction range [2]. - In terms of prices and profits, the profit margins of enterprises improved marginally. The purchase price of raw materials dropped 1.0 to 49.8 below the boom-bust line, and the ex-factory price of finished products decreased 0.6 to 47.9, with a smaller decline than the cost side [2]. - Due to the improvement of private enterprises' technology and management and policy support, the sentiment of small enterprises increased significantly. In March, the gaps among large, medium, and small enterprises narrowed significantly, with their PMIs changing by -1.3, 0.7, and 3.3 to 51.2, 49.9, and 49.6 respectively [2]. - High-tech manufacturing led the way. In March, the PMIs of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, consumer goods industry, and basic raw materials industry changed by 1.4, 1.2, 0.1, and -0.5 to 52.3, 52.0, 50.0, and 49.3 respectively [3]. Non-Manufacturing - The business activity index of the construction industry continued to rise by 0.7 to 53.4, mainly due to the warming climate and the accelerated progress of construction projects [3]. - The service industry maintained a stable and slightly expanding trend [3]. Investment Suggestions - Pay attention to technology-based small and micro private enterprises supported by policies and with improved cost pressures, such as AI applications like AI healthcare and AI pharmaceuticals, military informatization, and smart home appliances [5]. - Focus on performance-oriented sectors, such as low-valued dividend sectors and pro-cyclical consumer sectors [5]. - Consider the agricultural sector, as China's additional tariffs on the US have pushed up agricultural product prices, the "requirements for new agricultural productive forces" have strengthened the logic of domestic substitution, and international market production cuts have led to supply contraction [5].