镍与不锈钢日评：区间整理-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the Indonesian government's frequent policy adjustments in the nickel industry and unresolved refined nickel surplus situation lead to nickel price fluctuations, with a risk of price pull - back after a rise. Attention should be paid to the final implementation of the Indonesian PNBP policy [1] - For stainless steel, due to relatively loose supply, slow demand recovery, and limited support from raw materials, it is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - Price and Trading Volume: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel main contract showed a slightly stronger trend, with a trading volume of 249,977 lots (+52,503) and an open interest of 106,286 lots (-1,815). LME nickel rose 0.82%. The spot market trading activity was average, and the basis premium decreased [1] - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore changed little, and port inventories were stable. In February, production in some major Indonesian regions was adjusted, with a decrease in production scheduling and a downward expectation for metal volume. Domestic smelters continued to operate at a loss, and production slightly recovered after seasonal maintenance but declined slightly due to fewer days in February [1] - Demand: Ternary production scheduling decreased, stainless steel mills' production scheduling showed a stable and positive trend, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1] - Inventory: SHFE inventories decreased, LME inventories increased, social inventories increased, and bonded area inventories increased [1] Stainless Steel Market - Price and Trading Volume: The previous trading day's stainless steel main contract showed a slightly stronger trend, with a trading volume of 206,853 lots (+39,941) and an open interest of 129,740 lots (+1,990). The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium decreased [1] - Supply: Stainless steel production scheduling decreased slightly in February [1] - Demand: Terminal demand was gradually recovering [1] - Cost: The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1] - Inventory: SHFE inventories increased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 712,100 tons (-13,800) [1] Industry News - SNNC's FeNi production in Q4 2024 was 7,000 tons of metal, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of about 30%. The annual production in 2024 was 37,000 tons of metal, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.37% [1] - Shaanxi Yinkuang and Hongma Technology reached a strategic cooperation to jointly promote the construction of a 4,800 - ton nickel sulfate project [1] - On March 27, SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 107 tons to 26,846 tons. In the past week, they decreased by 1,676 tons (5.88%), and in the past month, they decreased by 1,187 tons (4.23%) [1] - On March 27, LME nickel inventories increased by 222 tons to 201,300 tons. In the past week, they increased by 864 tons (0.43%), and in the past month, they increased by 8,658 tons (4.49%) [1]