国泰君安晨报-2025-03-31

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report outlines a new order concept of "tariff threats + dollar safety zone" as part of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" [3] - Tariffs play a dual role as both a means and an end, with inflation and financial market volatility affecting their implementation pace but not their direction [3][4] - The U.S. aims to promote dollar depreciation to revitalize manufacturing through multilateral and unilateral currency agreements [2][3] Group 2: A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation after previous catalysts, with a lack of strong macro policy or economic growth expectations [4][23] - April is highlighted as a critical month for growth performance in the stock market, with a predicted overall A-share profit growth rate of -1.5% for 2024 [5][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced investment style, focusing on sectors benefiting from equipment upgrades and low PB stocks [5][25] Group 3: Company Updates - Jiuli Special Materials achieved a revenue of 10.918 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.42%, with a net profit of 1.49 billion yuan [12][14] - The company’s overseas revenue accounted for 42.79% of total revenue in 2024, with a significant growth in composite pipe sales [12][14] - Jiuli Special Materials plans to invest in a project to produce 20,000 tons of high-performance pipes for nuclear and oil and gas applications, indicating future capacity growth [12][14] Group 4: Industry Insights - The "deep-sea technology" sector is identified as a significant growth engine, with China's marine economy exceeding 10 trillion yuan in 2024 [15][16] - The report highlights the rapid development of deep-sea equipment manufacturing as a core component of "deep-sea technology," with a focus on domestic production capabilities [17][18] - Investment recommendations include core midstream deep-sea equipment manufacturers and key component suppliers with strong domestic replacement potential [18]