长江期货塑料周报-2025-03-31

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish outlook on the plastics industry [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future market expectation for plastics is weak, with the plastics 2505 contract expected to fluctuate in the short - term within the range of 7650 - 7750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to operate after the breakthrough direction is clear, with a cautious and bearish stance [4] - Cost - end factors such as OPEC+ production increase and the US tariff policy put pressure on future oil prices. The supply side has large pressure due to new capacity launches and reduced planned maintenance in April - May. The demand side shows that the agricultural film's operating rate is approaching its recent high, and the packaging film and pipe industries are expected to follow up. High inventory levels also exert pressure on prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic Weekly Market Review - On March 28, the closing price of the plastics 2505 contract was 7701 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot price decline trend of plastics has eased. The average price of LDPE was 9666.67 yuan/ton (0% MoM), HDPE was 8402.50 yuan/ton (0% MoM), and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 8073.53 yuan/ton (+0.52% MoM). The LLDPE South China basis was 372.53 yuan/ton (-1.12% MoM), and the May - September spread was 82 yuan/ton (-5) [4][8] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Month Spread | Month Spread | Date | Value (yuan/ton) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 - 5 | 2025/3/28 | - 122 | +6 | | | 2025/3/21 | - 128 | | | 5 - 9 | 2025/3/28 | 82 | - 5 | | | 2025/3/21 | 87 | | | 9 - 1 | 2025/3/28 | 40 | - 1 | | | 2025/3/21 | 41 | | [13] 3.3 Key Data Tracking - Spot Price - The spot prices of different types of plastics (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE) in various regions (Northeast, North, East, South, Central, Northwest, Southwest) showed different trends of increase and decrease [14][15] 3.4 Key Data Tracking - Cost - This week, WTI crude oil closed at $69.04 per barrel, up $0.75 per barrel from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $72.54 per barrel, up $0.87 per barrel from the previous week. The anthracite price at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton (-10). The oil - based cost support is expected to weaken, and the coal - based cost support is expected to change little [17] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 234 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1713 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton from the previous week. The oil - based PE profit is expected to be weak, and the coal - based PE profit is expected to remain stable [20] 3.6 Key Data Tracking - Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production operating rate was 82.32%, up 1.66 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly polyethylene output reached 61.64 tons, up 2.27% MoM. The maintenance loss was 10.52 tons, down 0.75 tons from the previous week. In March, ExxonMobil (Huizhou), Inner Mongolia Baofeng, and Shandong New Era launched a total of 1.53 million tons of production capacity, and the planned maintenance in April - May is expected to decrease, resulting in large domestic supply pressure [24] 3.7 Key Data Tracking - 2025 Production Plan - Multiple enterprises have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned new capacity of 5.43 million tons [26] 3.8 Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines are under maintenance, with different parking and restart times [27] 3.9 Key Data Tracking - Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films was 40.70%, up 0.35% from the previous week; the operating rate of PE packaging films was 49.07%, up 3.70% from the previous week; and the operating rate of PE pipes was 30.50%, up 2.83% from the previous week. The peak season for plastic mulch in March continues, but the operating rate of agricultural films is expected to decline. The packaging film and pipe industries are gradually picking up [28] 3.10 Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 37.8%, with a difference of 0.8% from the annual average level. The proportion of low - pressure pipes is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 8.3%, with a difference of 2.2% from the annual average [32] 3.11 Key Data Tracking - Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 63.03 tons, with a change of 1.94 tons compared to the previous week [34] 3.12 Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts - On March 28, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 740 lots, down 3690 lots from the previous week [43]