长江期货尿素二季度报：沉默的爆发之后是什么？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first quarter of 2025, the urea market showed complex trends. The price of urea futures and spot increased, production capacity and output expanded, demand was strong, and exports increased. In the future, the price trend will be affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, raw material prices, and macro - environment. The price may experience stages of rising to reduce inventory, short - term price cuts to reduce inventory, and then rising again, and finally face pressure due to high supply and low demand [6][9][21][48] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Quarterly Market Review - Futures Price: In the first quarter, the urea futures price rose from 1,650 yuan/ton to 1,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated with factors such as seasonal demand and compound fertilizer production. The peak trading volume of the main contract was 481,300 lots, and the peak open interest was 279,900 lots [6] - Spot Price: In January 2025, the urea price dropped to around the first quartile of the ten - year historical price (1,681 yuan/ton), and then rose steadily, approaching the second quartile (1,885 yuan/ton) [9] 2. Coal and Grain Price Review - Coal Price: In the first quarter, coal prices continued to weaken. The price of anthracite decreased from 1,040 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton, and the price of thermal coal decreased from 677 yuan/ton to 602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton. The cost support for urea from coal weakened, but the production profit of urea recovered, with the gross profit margin of coal - based urea rising from - 3.16% to 8.3% [12] - Grain Price: In the first quarter, grain prices generally rebounded. The price of corn increased from 2,009 yuan/ton to 2,194 yuan/ton, an increase of 185 yuan/ton, and the price of wheat increased from 2,366 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton [16] 3. Urea Production Capacity and Output Analysis - Production Capacity: In 2025, new (expanded) urea production capacity totaled 557 tons. Some projects such as Shaanxi Coal Chemical Industry, Gansu Liuhua, and Jiangsu Jinkong Hengsheng have been put into production [20] - Output: In the first quarter, the urea operating rate increased from 72.8% to 85.3%, and the average daily output was higher than that in 2024, currently maintaining at 19 - 200,000 tons. The total output from January to February was 1.127 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 108,700 tons, and the output in March was expected to be about 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 45,000 tons [21] 4. Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - In 2024, the national grain sown area increased by 5.258 million mu compared with the previous year, a growth of 0.3%, and has been increasing for five consecutive years. With the improvement of agricultural production conditions, the demand for agricultural fertilizers will gradually be released. March - April is the peak season for spring wheat green - turning fertilizers, followed by the peak season for high - nitrogen compound fertilizer production [26] 5. Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - Compound Fertilizer: From January to March 2025, the compound fertilizer operating rate showed seasonal changes, reaching a peak of 57.75% at the end of February. The output from January to February was 690,000 tons, and the output in March was expected to be about 586,000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises is currently at 500,000 - 600,000 tons [31] - Industrial Demand: The supply of vehicle urea is sufficient, but the demand is limited due to the impact of new energy and natural gas vehicles. The consumption of building materials and home furnishing stores decreased in the first quarter, and the domestic demand for the panel market improved slightly. The production of melamine from January to February was 249,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,000 tons. The demand for urea desulfurization and denitrification in thermal power generation is stable, but the demand for inventory is small [32][35] 6. Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to February 2025, China's total fertilizer exports were 4.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68 million tons, an increase of 56%. The export volume of mineral nitrogen fertilizers and chemical nitrogen fertilizers was 2.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 777,000 tons, an increase of 39.78%. The export volume of urea decreased by 81.08% year - on - year, while the export volume of ammonium sulfate increased by 39.15% year - on - year [38] 7. Urea Inventory Level Analysis - The urea enterprise inventory is at the level of 1 million tons, mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Shanxi. The port inventory is 134,000 tons, and the registered warehouse receipts are 5,563, equivalent to 111,260 tons of urea. In 2025, the urea inventory reached a new high, and the inventory reduction is currently going smoothly [40] 8. Urea Market Outlook - Internal Factors: In the early stage before the peak season, due to high daily production and high inventory, the downstream was cautious in purchasing. However, with the release of spring plowing fertilizer demand, the price entered the stage of rising to reduce inventory. After early April, the strategy of rising to reduce inventory may be ineffective, and it may enter a short - term stage of price cuts to reduce inventory. From mid - April to May, the price is expected to be strong, and after the end of May, the price is expected to be under pressure [48] - External Factors: The global economic situation in 2025 is more uncertain. The domestic macro - policy and market sentiment have a close impact on commodities. The increase in grain prices requires a significant improvement in consumption, otherwise, the upward drive is weak [48] - Key Points of Attention: Urea production capacity release, urea plant shutdown for maintenance, compound fertilizer operating rate, export policy, coal price, and macro - environment [48]