谨慎对待交割的兑现

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In March, the glass market showed signs of a peak season, with improved production and sales leading to a rebound in the futures market, but it failed to drive up prices in low - price regions. The market gave a premium and then fell back. Attention should be paid to the demand performance. - Demand has arrived, but its persistence needs to be monitored. The cumulative year - to - date on - the - spot demand is - 7.4%, and the overall downward trend of demand has not changed. - For the 05 contract, unless demand in the next few weeks is unexpectedly strong, leading to price increases in Hubei and rapid destocking of intermediate inventories, Hubei may face discount delivery. - In April, if demand does not strengthen unexpectedly, caution should be exercised regarding delivery [1][5][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - In March, the futures price fluctuated between 1133 and 1269. It first declined, bottomed out on March 13th, and then rebounded, but fell back again two days after a significant rebound on March 24th. - The rebound was due to improved production and sales and seasonal demand. After the Spring Festival, the worst demand period ended, and the market shifted from a high - valuation, high - inventory, and no - demand - driven pattern in February to a low - valuation, high - inventory, and demand - driven pattern in March. - Regionally, Shahe's production and sales improved at the beginning of March and remained high. Hubei's production and sales were affected by rain in the early stage and strengthened in the middle of the month. South China and East China were weaker in the first half and stronger in the second half. - The improvement in production and sales was seasonal. Although the overall demand was weak, there was some explosive power. The cumulative year - to - date on - the - spot demand was - 7.4%, and the total demand was still declining. - In the past two weeks, there was destocking because the supply was - 10.4% year - to - date, and the weekly supply was about 1.108 million tons, while the on - the - spot demand was higher than this for two consecutive weeks. - Looking ahead, demand is likely to fluctuate around the current level. If there is no significant improvement in demand in the first half of the year, inventory will remain at the current level, and the industry will continue to compress profits. Otherwise, there is room for demand recovery [7][8][11]. 2. Glass Supply and Demand Situation 2.1 Price: Regional Differentiation - There are significant price differences among different regions of glass. East China's prices are leading the country, while South China is in the off - season with low prices and high inventory pressure. Northeast China's prices are falling due to increased supply, and Hubei's prices are relatively stable with a discount to the futures market [12][16]. 2.2 Domestic Glass Supply - In the short term, the daily melting volume is expected to remain around 158,000 - 161,000 tons per day. The current supply is 158,000 tons per day, with a year - to - date cumulative decline of 10.4%. Assuming an annual supply of 160,000 tons per day, the annual total supply will be about 58.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.28%. - Structurally, the production of white glass is gradually resuming, reaching about 120,000 tons, close to the capacity in October last year. There are many potential ignition and cold - repair production lines, and their implementation needs further tracking [34][35]. 2.3 Domestic Glass Inventory - With the recovery of demand, inventory is starting to decline. Seasonally, April may see the highest demand and lowest inventory in the first half of the year. The current supply is - 10.4% year - to - date, and the demand is - 7.4% year - to - date. Attention should be paid to demand performance [46]. 2.4 Cost and Profit - The cost is relatively stable overall. The futures market profit has tightened from a profitable state to near the cost level [58][61]. 2.5 Downstream Real Estate - The real estate market is in a destocking cycle. The Politburo meeting emphasized promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, controlling new construction, optimizing existing inventory, and improving quality. - This year, the arrival of funds has been slow, and the resumption of work has been delayed. Continued attention is needed [72][73]. 2.6 Deep - processing - In March, the performance of the deep - processing industry was still weak, and its real situation needs attention [76]. 2.7 Completion Reference Indicators - After the seasonal decline during the Spring Festival, there has been an overall recovery, but the recovery of glass is relatively weak [79][81].