Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Industrial silicon (Si) is expected to be in a weak oscillation, while polysilicon (Ps) is likely to rise first and then fall [1][2]. - For industrial silicon, despite potential supply - side cuts in the second quarter, weak demand and sufficient inventory will keep prices lacking upward momentum, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly around the cost line [1][85]. - For polysilicon, the price may be strong in the second quarter due to the "531 rush - to - install" tide, but will decline in the third quarter as the demand weakens [2][88]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Industrial Silicon - In the first quarter of 2025, the price of industrial silicon continued its decline from the end of 2024, going through three stages: demand contraction and price decline from early January to mid - January, a 4% rebound due to short - covering before the Spring Festival from mid - January to early February, and another decline due to increased supply and weak demand from early February to the end of March [10][11][12]. 1.2 Polysilicon - In the first quarter of 2025, the price of polysilicon rose and then oscillated widely. From early January to mid - January, the price was pushed up by major manufacturers' price - holding and industry self - discipline production cuts. From mid - January to the end of March, it oscillated due to the intertwined long and short factors, with supply - side production cuts and demand - side stimulation from the "531 rush - to - install" tide, but high inventory still pressured the price [16][17][18]. 2. Industrial Silicon 2.1 Supply Situation - National production decreased year - on - year. The cumulative production in the first two months was 593,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.08%, and the estimated cumulative production in the first quarter was 934,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.58% [21]. - In the Northwest region, Xinjiang maintained stable production and Inner Mongolia increased production. It is expected to maintain the current production level in the second quarter, considering the cost and financial advantages of large manufacturers and the trend of squeezing out Southwest capacity [24]. - In the Southwest region, Yunnan had low production and Sichuan was basically shut down. They may resume production during the wet season (June - November), but the scale may be lower than previous years, as silicon plants may be more conservative in production planning due to the weak price [30]. 2.2 Demand Situation - For polysilicon, supply remained low under the industry self - discipline production cuts [42]. - For organic silicon, non - real estate demand recovery drove production growth. The cumulative production in the first two months was 420,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.51%, and the estimated cumulative production in the first quarter was 620,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.74%. Real estate demand was still weak, but non - real estate demand such as electronics, textiles, and automobiles showed a recovery trend [43]. 2.3 Inventory Situation - Visible inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high. As of the end of March, the visible inventory was about 752,100 tons, a 22.97% increase from the beginning of the year and a 74.43% increase year - on - year. Registered warehouse receipts also increased, but the growth rate slowed down, and the deliverable products were sufficient [58]. 3. Polysilicon 3.1 Supply Situation - Under the industry self - discipline production cuts, polysilicon supply remained low. The cumulative production in the first two months decreased by 42.68% year - on - year, and the estimated cumulative production in the first quarter was 279,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.38%. It is expected to maintain low supply in the second quarter [62]. 3.2 Demand Situation - The new energy on - grid tariff reform triggered the "531 rush - to - install" tide, driving the growth of silicon wafer production in the first half of the year. The cumulative photovoltaic new installed capacity in the first two months was 39.47GW, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. Silicon wafer production increased quarter - on - quarter in the first quarter, and inventory decreased significantly. However, production may decline after the rush - to - install tide ends [65][66]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - Factory inventory was at a high level but decreased marginally. As of the end of March, the factory inventory was 270,800 tons, a 2.17% decrease from the beginning of the year but a 184.45% increase year - on - year. The first batch of warehouse receipts is expected to be registered in early April, and the scale of deliverable products may be between 46,500 - 53,200 tons [77]. 4. Summary 4.1 Industrial Silicon - In the first quarter of 2025, the fundamentals were weak and the price declined. In the second quarter, supply may see the Northwest maintain the current level and the Southwest have a lower wet - season production than previous years. Demand will remain weak, and with high inventory, prices are expected to oscillate weakly around the cost line [85]. 4.2 Polysilicon - In the first quarter of 2025, the fundamentals improved and the price rose and then oscillated. In the second quarter, demand is likely to increase due to the "531 rush - to - install" tide, and supply may remain low. The price may be strong in the second quarter but decline in the third quarter [88].
工业硅弱势震荡，多晶硅抢装潮推涨
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-03-31 07:59