集运日报：或对后续运价走势持有乐观态度，多头情绪上涨，盘面高位震荡，风险偏好者可尝试轻仓超跌反弹。-2025-03-31

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a container shipping daily report dated March 31, 2025, released by the shipping research team [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The market has a bullish sentiment towards future freight rates, and the market is oscillating at a high level. Risk - takers can attempt a short - term rebound strategy with a light position [2] - The core logic for this year's shipping market lies in international tariff policies. In April, the US will re - evaluate tariff policies with Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding significant uncertainties to the shipping market [3] - It is necessary to focus on the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3] Group 4: Freight Index Analysis SCFIS and NCFI - On March 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1506.17 points, down 3.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1260.05 points, down 16.4% from the previous period [2] - On March 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 983.01 points, up 12.89% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 866.25 points, down 0.65% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1524.4 points, up 49.83% from the previous period [2] SCFI and CCFI - On March 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1356.88 points, up 64.13 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1318 USD/TEU, up 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2177 USD/FEU, up 16.3% from the previous period [2] - On March 28, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1111.71 points, down 3.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1526.99 points, down 3.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 806.01 points, down 6.3% from the previous period [2] Group 5: PMI and Investor Confidence Index Eurozone - The Eurozone's March manufacturing PMI flash was 48.7 (expected 48.2); the March services PMI flash was 50.4 (expected 51). The March composite PMI flash rose to 50.4, the highest since August [2] - The Eurozone's March Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous - 12.7) [2] China - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing sentiment. China's February Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in three months, and the employment contraction rate slowed significantly [2] US - The US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the March services PMI flash was 54.3, the highest in three months; the March composite PMI flash was 53.5, the highest in three months [3] Group 6: Trading Strategies Short - term Strategy - Risk - takers can try to enter the market at the 1900 - 2000 range of the 2508 contract for a short - term rebound in the peak - season contract and set stop - losses [3] Arbitrage Strategy - Due to the recurrence of geopolitical conflicts and the basic determination of tariff policies, the arbitrage structure is currently chaotic, with short windows and large fluctuations. All positions have been advised to take profits [3] Long - term Strategy - All long - term positions in far - month contracts have been advised to take profits. It is recommended to wait until the price war situation in March becomes clear and the far - month contracts adjust to appropriate prices before making new arrangements [3] Group 7: Contract Information - The daily limit for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 16% [3] - The company's margin requirement for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 26% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 100 lots [3] - On March 28, the main contract 2506 closed at 2288.0, up 6.14%, with a trading volume of 64,100 lots and an open interest of 34,800 lots, an increase of 811 lots from the previous day [3] Group 8: Geopolitical and Policy Factors - The US trade protectionist policies introduced by Trump have increased global economic uncertainties, and the US - EU trade war may harm both sides [4] - The Palestine - Israel conflict continues, and the delay in the cease - fire agreement negotiation adds uncertainties to the shipping market [3]