海南机场（600515）：2024年业绩预计承压，大股东增持显示中线信心

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hainan Airport is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][14]. Core Viewpoints - The major shareholder's increase in holdings reflects confidence in the company's medium-term prospects, as the controlling shareholder, Hainan Airport Group, increased its stake from 24.51% to 24.87% through a block trade [4][5][8]. - The company's performance is expected to be under pressure in the short term due to the pace of real estate destocking and a decline in contributions from Hainan's duty-free sales. The forecast for 2024 indicates a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 320-480 million, representing a year-on-year decline of 49.62%-66.41% [5][9]. - The company is focusing on its core business development, with the expansion of Sanya Airport expected to enhance passenger capacity by 30% to 30 million by the end of 2025. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port [6][10]. Summary by Sections Shareholder Activity - Hainan Airport Group acquired a total of 41,792,448 shares at a price of RMB 3.69 per share, totaling approximately RMB 154.21 million, which helps eliminate historical cross-shareholding issues and demonstrates confidence in future growth [4][8]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from RMB 320 million to RMB 480 million, and a non-recurring net loss of RMB 200 million to RMB 400 million, primarily due to asset disposals and debt restructuring [5][9]. Business Strategy - Hainan Airport is shifting its focus back to its core operations, with airport management revenue expected to exceed 40% in 2024. The company is also modifying its articles of association to improve its dividend distribution mechanism [6][10]. Investment Recommendations - Adjustments to revenue assumptions for real estate and duty-free operations have been made, with net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 revised to RMB 466 million, RMB 729 million, and RMB 895 million, respectively. The company is expected to benefit from its strategic positioning in the Hainan Free Trade Port [7][13].