CRRC(601766) 光大证券·2025-03-31 08:17Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company in both A-shares and H-shares [5][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 246.46 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, and a net profit of CNY 12.39 billion, up 5.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s non-recurring net profit grew by 11.4% year-on-year, reaching CNY 10.14 billion, with an earnings per share (EPS) of CNY 0.43 [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 21.4%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin increased by 0.14 percentage points to 6.4% [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The railway equipment business generated revenue of CNY 110.46 billion, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, driven by a 49.3% increase in revenue from high-speed trains [2]. - The company’s new industry business revenue rose by 7.1% to CNY 86.38 billion, primarily due to increased income from clean energy equipment [2]. - The company signed new contracts worth CNY 322.2 billion in 2024, marking a 7.9% increase year-on-year [3]. Market Opportunities - The company is expected to benefit from the demand for equipment upgrades and maintenance of high-speed trains, with a significant increase in contracts for advanced maintenance services, which grew by 217.6% to CNY 45.36 billion [4]. - The government’s push for the replacement of old diesel locomotives is anticipated to create substantial opportunities for the company’s locomotive business [4]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects a slight decrease in profit margin expectations, with net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted down by 9.6% and 9.9% to CNY 13.57 billion and CNY 14.74 billion, respectively [5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 0.47, CNY 0.51, and CNY 0.55, respectively [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected P/E ratios for A-shares are 18, 17, 15, 14, and 13 for the years 2023 to 2027 [5]. - The projected dividend per share is expected to increase from CNY 0.20 in 2023 to CNY 0.27 by 2027, reflecting a growing dividend yield [13].