保险行业深度研究报告：从重仓看中长期资金入市

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the insurance industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the long-end interest rate decline is a core logic supporting the long-term strength of dividend strategies, analyzing the investment styles of four types of long-term capital from the perspectives of funds, assets, and capital [8][9] - It forecasts that the total incremental capital from four types of long-term capital in the stock market will be approximately 460 billion, with about 200 billion potentially flowing into the dividend sector [8][9] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the continuous policy support aimed at promoting long-term capital entering the market, highlighting measures to enhance the investment stability of commercial insurance funds in A-shares and optimize the investment management mechanisms of social security and pension funds [13] Insurance Capital - Insurance capital primarily comes from life insurance, with a stable cash flow supported by renewal premiums. As of 2024, the total investment balance of the insurance industry reached 33.26 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 15% [14] - The allocation of insurance capital is predominantly in fixed income, with stocks and funds maintaining a long-term allocation ratio of 12-14%. The report notes a potential increase in equity allocation due to the rise of dividend insurance products [15][23] Social Security Fund - The total assets of the national social security fund reached 3.01 trillion by the end of 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5%. The report indicates that the fund's short-term volatility tolerance is relatively strong, leveraging its long-term capital advantages [38] Pension Funds - Basic pension funds have the lowest risk appetite, while enterprise annuities show a more market-oriented style. The report highlights that the basic pension fund's total assets reached 7.8 trillion, with only a small portion allocated to equity investments [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that as long-end interest rates continue to decline, it will form the primary logic for dividend strategies. It also notes that when the dividend yield of quality assets rises to 4-5% or higher, long-term capital may increase its allocation to high-dividend assets [9][8]