ACEG(SH:600502) Tianfeng Securities·2025-03-31 08:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in its dividend payout ratio to 34.5% for 2024, up by 5.73 percentage points from 2023, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.9% [1]. - Despite a revenue increase of 5.8% year-on-year to CNY 96.5 billion in 2024, the company's net profit decreased by 13.4% to CNY 1.35 billion, primarily due to challenges in the real estate sector and substantial credit and asset impairment losses [1][4]. - The company is focusing on long-term investment value, with historical P/E and P/B ratios at 16.4% and 9.6%, respectively, indicating a low valuation relative to historical performance [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In 2024, the company's construction business generated revenues of CNY 32.53 billion and CNY 43.82 billion from housing and infrastructure, respectively, with new orders declining by 32.8% and increasing by 21.8% [2]. - The real estate segment saw a revenue drop of 8.9% to CNY 6.52 billion, while contracted sales increased by 36.3% in area and 21.5% in value [2]. - New business initiatives have been strengthened, with significant growth in contracts for building industrialization and smart manufacturing, achieving year-on-year increases of 64.8% and 196.0%, respectively [2]. Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 12.4%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points, with specific margins for construction, infrastructure, and real estate at 9.3%, 11.2%, and 7.4%, respectively [3]. - The net profit margin fell to 2.1%, down by 0.2 percentage points, influenced by increased asset and credit impairment losses totaling CNY 2.36 billion [3]. - Cash flow from operations (CFO) was CNY 1.22 billion, a decrease of CNY 2.46 billion year-on-year, with cash collection and payment ratios at 92.2% and 91.5%, respectively [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 1.42 billion, CNY 1.50 billion, and CNY 1.57 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 5.5% for 2025 and 4.9% for 2027 [4][5]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a gradual increase, with expected revenues of CNY 101.62 billion in 2025 and CNY 111.75 billion in 2027, representing growth rates of 5.3% and 4.5% [5][12].