玻璃4月报：玻璃4月报需求持续存疑建议空5多9-2025-03-31

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market in March showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The early decline was affected by high inventory and real - estate new construction data, followed by an obvious upward trend due to improved sales in Shahe and Hubei. The supply decreased slightly in March with 2 cold - repairs and 1 new ignition. The national inventory reached a downward turning point. Although the sales in major production areas were good, there were signs of weakening. The release of construction orders was still below expectations. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remained prominent, and the futures market was considered weak. Considering the current situation, it is recommended to short the May contract and go long on the September contract [3][87]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review: Strong Sales and Bottom Rebound - Price Changes: As of March 28, the spot price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1,250 yuan/ton (+10), in Central China was 1,150 yuan/ton (0), and in East China was 1,360 yuan/ton (0). The glass 05 contract closed at 1,197 yuan/ton last Friday, up 24 yuan for the week. The 05 - 09 spread was - 53 yuan/ton (+8), and the 05 contract basis was - 37 yuan/ton (-14) [14][18]. - Soda - Glass Spread: As of March 28, the soda futures price was 1,393 yuan/ton, the glass futures price was 1,197 yuan/ton, and the spread between them was 196 yuan/ton (-41) [15]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Pattern: Coal Price Drop and Weak Real Estate - Import and Export: In December last year, China's float glass imports were 271,100 weight - boxes (a year - on - year decrease of 48%), and exports were 1.12 million weight - boxes (a year - on - year increase of 157%). In February, imports decreased compared with the same period last year, but exports increased [22]. - Profit: The natural gas - made process cost was 1,626 yuan/ton (-2), with a gross profit of - 266 yuan/ton (+2); the coal - gas - made process cost was 1,195 yuan/ton (+4), with a gross profit of 55 yuan/ton (+6); the petroleum - coke - made process cost was 1,171 yuan/ton (-2), with a gross profit of - 21 yuan/ton (+2) [28]. - Supply: Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 157,655 tons/day (-500). In March, 2 production lines were cold - repaired and 1 was newly ignited [30]. - Inventory: As of March 28, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 67.012 million weight - boxes (-2.448 million). The inventory in North China, Central China, East China, South China, Southwest China, Shahe, and Hubei all decreased [37]. - Deep - Processing: Last week, the national average sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 122.13% (+5.8%). On March 28, the LOW - E glass开工率 was 40.52% (-0.99%). In mid - March, the order days of glass deep - processing were 8 days (+1.2) [43][44][45]. - Demand - Automobile: In February, China's automobile production was 2.103 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 347,000 and a year - on - year increase of 597,000), and sales were 2.129 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 294,000 and a year - on - year increase of 545,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger cars was 686,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 8% [52]. - Demand - Real Estate: In February, China's real - estate completion area was 87.6421 million square meters (a year - on - year decrease of 16%), new construction area was 66.1394 million square meters (-30%), construction area was 6.0597235 billion square meters (-9%), and commercial housing sales area was 107.459 million square meters (-5%) [57]. - Cost - Soda Ash: As of March 28, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,600 yuan/ton (0), in East China was 1,550 yuan/ton (-25), in Central China was 1,525 yuan/ton (-25), and in South China was 1,675 yuan/ton (0). The soda ash 2505 contract closed at 1,393 yuan/ton (-17) last Friday, and the Central China basis was 132 yuan/ton (-8) [64]. - Cost - Soda Ash Profit: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,530 yuan/ton (-88), with a gross profit of 0 yuan/ton (+52); the cost of the co - production method was 1,980 yuan/ton (-32), with a gross profit of 211 yuan/ton (-48) [65]. - Cost - Soda Ash Inventory: Last week, the national soda ash production was 690,200 tons (a week - on - week increase of 37,900), including 369,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 21,500) and 321,200 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 16,400). The inventory in soda ash factories nationwide was 1.63 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 57,800) [82]. - Cost - Soda Ash Supply and Demand: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 422,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 27,100), and for light soda ash was 326,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 21,200). The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.86% (a week - on - week increase of 1.88%) [85]. 3.3 Investment Strategy: Uncertain Demand, Short May and Long September - Main Logic: The glass futures market showed a trend of first falling and then rising in March. The previous decline was due to high inventory and poor real - estate new construction data, and then the market rose due to improved sales in Shahe and Hubei. The supply decreased slightly in March, and the national inventory reached a downward turning point. Although the sales in major production areas were good, there were signs of weakening. The release of construction orders was still below expectations. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remained prominent, and the futures market was considered weak. Considering the current situation, it is recommended to short the May contract and go long on the September contract [3][87]. - Operation Strategy: Short the May contract and go long on the September contract [2][4][88].