中辉期货热卷早报-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Weak operation in the medium term [3][4][5] - Iron Ore: Neutral to slightly bearish, recommend 5 - 9 calendar spread long position and short 09 contract on rallies [6][7] - Coke: Weak operation in the medium term [8][9][10] - Coking Coal: Weak operation [11][12][13] - Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon): Weak operation [14][16][17] Core Views - Steel: The supply of steel continues to rise. For rebar, the increase in production and high - level hot metal output may strengthen supply contradictions, with limited upside space. Hot - rolled coil shows a state of strong supply and demand, but lacks continuous upward drivers and follows rebar to run weakly in the medium term [4][5] - Iron Ore: The shipping volume has increased this period, arrivals have slightly declined, and port inventories have slightly increased. With more information on steel mill maintenance and production cuts, the short - term impact is limited. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] - Coke: The exchange has modified the coke delivery rules. Coke production and inventories have increased with the rise in hot metal output. Due to long - standing over - capacity and difficult - to - solve coking coal supply contradictions, there is a lack of upward drivers [9] - Coking Coal: The output of coking coal mines continues to rise, the supply pressure persists and increases. High inventory levels and large upstream shipment pressure lead to a situation of oversupply that is difficult to change [12] - Ferroalloys: Manganese silicon has high - level production areas and lower - than - expected downstream demand, with limited decline in ore prices. The delivery warehouse inventory continues to rise. Ferrosilicon has more production cuts and overhauls in some areas, and the export competition pressure may intensify [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Rebar: The current futures prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 are 3281, 3197, and 3257 respectively, all showing a decline. The spot prices in different regions also show varying degrees of decline. The supply contradiction may intensify, and the price range is expected to be [3150, 3250] [1][2] - Hot - Rolled Coil: The current futures prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 are 3422, 3374, and 3404 respectively, all showing a decline. The spot prices in different regions have mixed trends. It lacks upward drivers and is expected to run weakly in the medium term, with a price range of [3350, 3450] [1][2] Iron Ore - The current futures prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 are 725, 786, and 747 respectively, with different trends. The spot prices of various iron ore powders also show different changes. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to participate in the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position and short the 09 contract on rallies, with a price range of [750, 810] [6][7] Coke - The current futures prices of coke 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1704.5, 1617.5, and 1661.0 respectively, all showing a decline. The spot prices in different regions are relatively stable. Coke is expected to maintain a weak trend, with a price range of [1570, 1640] [8][9] Coking Coal - The current futures prices of coking coal 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1140.0, 1024.0, and 1080.5 respectively, all showing a decline. The spot prices in different regions are relatively stable. Coking coal is expected to run weakly, with a price range of [1000, 1050] [11][12] Ferroalloys - Manganese Silicon: The current futures prices of manganese silicon 01, 05, and 09 are 6216, 6076, and 6142 respectively, all showing a decline. The spot prices in different regions are stable. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with a price range of [6000, 6350] [15][16][17] - Ferrosilicon: The current futures prices of ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 are 6106, 6016, and 6032 respectively, with different trends. The spot prices in different regions are stable. The fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to run weakly, with a price range of [5900, 6100] [15][16][17]