Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Demand side: Last week, the growth rate of hot metal production slowed down. After the previous centralized restart of blast furnaces, there is limited room for further increase in hot metal. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 82.11%, a week-on-week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 5.51 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3728 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 159,700 tons [2]. - Supply side: Affected by the previous shipments, the number of arriving ships decreased last week, and the arrival volume declined. Recently, the shipments have increased month-on-month and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past three years. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil last week were 25.152 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.615 million tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 149.794 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 649,100 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2531 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons [2]. - Overall: The supply side was affected by the previous shipments, with a decrease in the number of arriving ships and a decline in arrival volume last week. Recently, the shipments have increased month-on-month and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past three years. On the demand side, the growth rate of hot metal production slowed down last week. After the previous centralized restart of blast furnaces, there is limited room for further increase in hot metal. This year, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase, and the decline in demand is mainly due to the restrictions of China's crude steel production control policy. In the medium and long term, supply is strong and demand is weak. Recently, the growth rate of hot metal production has slowed down, and in the short term, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3,197 yuan/ton, a rise of 41 yuan, a rise rate of 1.30%, a total trading volume of 10,158,406 lots, and a total open interest of 3,149,809 lots [3]. - SHFE hot-rolled coil had a closing price of 3,374 yuan/ton, a rise of 23 yuan, a rise rate of 0.69%, a total trading volume of 2,423,951 lots, and a total open interest of 832,160 lots [3]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 785.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 28 yuan, a rise rate of 3.70%, a total trading volume of 1,496,772 lots, and a total open interest of 412,123 lots [3]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 1,024 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan, a rise rate of 1.39%, a total trading volume of 1,388,421 lots, and a total open interest of 515,162 lots [3]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1,617.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 81.5 yuan, a rise rate of 5.31%, a total trading volume of 137,642 lots, and a total open interest of 53,611 lots [3]. Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures rose. The resumption of production of steel mills accelerated, and the hot metal increased month-on-month, supporting the rebound of ore prices. In the spot market, the quotation of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 784 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 23 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 645 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 11 yuan/ton. The price difference between high and low grades of spot PB powder and Super Special powder was 139 yuan/ton [5]. - On the demand side, the growth rate of hot metal production slowed down last week. After the previous centralized restart of blast furnaces, there is limited room for further increase in hot metal. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 82.11%, a week-on-week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 5.51 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.08%, a week-on-week increase of 0.38 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.32 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills was 53.68%, a week-on-week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 25.11 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 2.3728 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 159,700 tons [5]. - On the supply side, affected by the previous shipments, the number of arriving ships decreased last week, and the arrival volume declined. Recently, the shipments have increased month-on-month and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past three years. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil last week were 25.152 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.615 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 18.786 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 540,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.926 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 458,000 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 6.365 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.56 million tons. The total global iron ore shipments this period were 30.847 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.212 million tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 149.794 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 649,100 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2531 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [6]. Industry News - Jiang Wei, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee, Vice President, and Secretary-General of the China Iron and Steel Association, stated that the imbalance between supply and demand is the main contradiction affecting the current industry development. Production control and industry self-discipline production reduction are only expedients. Effectively closing the entrance for new production capacity, quickly smoothing the exit channel for backward production capacity, and establishing a new mechanism for production capacity management are the keys to solving the current main contradictions in the industry [7][8]. - US President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars, and the relevant measures will take effect on April 2. Trump also said that the United States will impose tariffs on wood and drugs [11]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Work Plan for the National Carbon Emission Trading Market to Cover the Steel, Cement, and Aluminum Smelting Industries", marking that the work of expanding the industry coverage scope of the national carbon emission trading market for the first time has officially entered the implementation stage [11]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the futures and spot trends of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, the basis trends of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, the profit per ton of steel for steel mills, the profit and loss situation of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, the spot landing profit of PB powder, the national steel daily output, the national steel output (ten-day), the national and Tangshan billet inventory, the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil, the increase rate of the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil, the steel mill inventory, the weekly output of rebar and hot-rolled coil for steel mills, the apparent consumption of steel, the terminal procurement volume of Shanghai wire rod and rebar, the daily average output of national pig iron and crude steel, the ten-day output of national pig iron and crude steel, the profitability of steel mills across the country, the daily average hot metal production across the country, the port inventory of 45 ports, the port inventory of main ports, the national electric furnace operation situation, the blast furnace operating rate across the country, the port inventory of 45 ports by iron ore type, the average available days of iron ore for steel mills, the total inventory of iron ore for steel mills, the total daily consumption of iron ore for steel mills, the number of ships at ports for 45 ports, the daily average port clearance volume of iron ore, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, the iron ore arrival volume at the six northern ports, the national steel mill scrap daily consumption, the national steel mill scrap inventory, the steel mill scrap arrival volume, and the national steel mill scrap arrival volume [10][12][13][15][16][18][20][24][25][27][30][33][34][37][38][39][42][43][47][50].
铁矿周报：铁水产量放缓，铁矿震荡走势-2025-03-31
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-03-31 09:09