Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 44 to close at 4,420 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; the palm oil 05 contract closed at 9,088 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the soybean oil 05 contract fell 36 to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decrease; the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 106 to close at 9,271 yuan/ton, a 1.16% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 3.18 to close at 45.2 cents/pound, a 7.57% increase; the ICE canola active contract rose 40.8 to close at 613.3 Canadian dollars/ton, a 7.13% increase [2][6]. - During the week, palm oil first declined and then rose, showing an overall range - bound oscillation. Three institutions' data indicated that Malaysian palm oil production increased month - on - month, and the producing areas are gradually entering the production - increasing season. Export demand remained relatively weak, causing palm oil to decline at the beginning of the week. However, Indonesia's policy of increasing export taxes has been implemented, and the funds will be used for the promotion of the B40 policy. There is still expected support for demand growth. Additionally, Trump reached a consensus on the biodiesel policy, which will increase biodiesel production. Coupled with the unexpectedly high export sales of US soybean oil, the sharp rise in US soybean oil drove palm oil to close higher and return to the range - bound oscillation [3][6]. - Macroscopically, the US tariff policy on April 2 is still uncertain, which has caused the US stock market to oscillate and decline, and the US dollar index to oscillate. Affected by supply concerns, oil prices oscillated and closed higher during the week. Fundamentally, palm oil in the producing areas has entered the production - increasing season, and export demand is still affected by high prices, limiting the upside. Indonesia's policy of increasing export taxes has been implemented to prepare for the implementation of the biodiesel policy, which may be implemented rhythmically later. The US may increase the production of biodiesel, boosting the sharp rise of US soybean oil and providing support for the domestic oil market. Overall, palm oil may oscillate [3][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 3.18 to 45.2 cents/pound, a 7.57% increase; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 44 to 4,420 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; the DCE palm oil contract remained unchanged at 9,088 yuan/ton; the DCE soybean oil contract fell 36 to 7,986 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 106 to 9,271 yuan/ton, a 1.16% increase. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 9,670 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 8,260 yuan/ton, a 1.31% decrease; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,300 yuan/ton, a 1.09% increase [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: According to SPPOMA, from March 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield increased by 7.01%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.33%, and production increased by 5.1% month - on - month. UOB estimated that as of March 20, Malaysian palm oil production was expected to increase by 4 - 8%. MPOA reported that from March 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production was estimated to increase by 9.48% [7]. - Exports: According to SGS, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 25 was 678,698 tons, a 4.23% decrease from the same period last month. ITS data showed a 8.08% decrease, and AmSpec Agri data showed a 8.47% decrease. Indonesia's palm oil export volume in February was 2.08 million tons, a 42% increase from January [8]. - Inventory: As of the week of March 21, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.0452 million tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 208,200 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 881,200 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 6,100 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 388,300 tons, a decrease of 34,300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 177,700 tons from the same period last year [9]. - Transaction volume: As of the week of March 28, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 14,620 tons, compared with 13,100 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 1,019 tons, compared with 265 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - RHB Research stated that Indonesia's implementation of the mandatory B40 biodiesel blending plan will support high palm oil prices. It is expected that the increase in domestic biodiesel blending demand may tighten global supply, and Indonesia's crude palm oil export volume in 2025 will decrease by 7%. The average price forecast of crude palm oil this year remains unchanged at 4,300 ringgit/ton [10]. - Indonesian authorities will transfer 216,997 hectares of plantation land to the state - owned palm company Agrinas Palma Nusantara. Earlier this month, prosecutors also transferred 221,000 hectares of illegal palm oil plantations to Agrinas [10]. - Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April to $961.54 per ton. Under the new reference price, the export tariff for crude palm oil in April will be $124 per ton. Indonesia also imposes a 7.5% special export tax on crude palm oil, and the special export tax rate for refined palm oil products is 3% - 6% of the reference price [8][11]. - Despite the decline in production, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of January increased by 13.98% from the previous month to 2.936 million tons because the export volume dropped to a four - month low. In January, Indonesia exported 1.96 million tons of palm oil products, a 30% decrease from the same period last year [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][33][34][35][36][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][52].
多重因素交织，棕榈油先跌后涨
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-03-31 09:21