Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are recommended for timely profit - taking [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Rebar, double - coking are expected to fluctuate; iron ore is expected to be weakly fluctuating [1][6] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended to close long positions at high prices and replenish on dips; aluminum is recommended to buy on dips, with the main contract reference range of 20300 - 21000; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices; tin is expected to be strongly fluctuating; gold and silver are recommended to build positions on dips and be cautious about chasing highs [1][11][17] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; urea is recommended for range trading; soda ash is recommended to hold short call options [1][20][25] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner; PTA is expected to be weakly fluctuating [1][26][27] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs are expected to be weakly fluctuating; eggs have strong support in the near - term and are recommended to be shorted at high prices in the far - term; corn is recommended to go long on dips; soybean meal is weakly fluctuating, with different strategies for different contracts; oils are expected to trade in a range [1][31][34] Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as Trump's tariff policy, Fed's interest - rate policy, and economic data. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand relationships and cost factors [5][11][17] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: Affected by factors like Trump's global tax plan, large - scale financing by state - owned banks, and upcoming PMI data, the index futures are expected to fluctuate [5] - Treasury Bonds: With sufficient capital supply but high short - term interest rates, and the upcoming PMI data, it is recommended to take profits in a timely manner and wait for further fundamental signals [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: With slightly increased production, consumption, and faster destocking, and considering domestic policies, demand verification, and tariff impacts, the price is expected to fluctuate, with the RB2505 contract focusing on the range of 3100 - 3300 [6] - Iron Ore: With increased supply and limited subsequent production growth, and considering tariff policies, it is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to short at high prices [6][7] - Double - Coking: For coking coal, supply is gradually increasing, and demand is marginally recovering. For coke, supply and demand contradictions are alleviated, but the rebound space depends on terminal demand. Both are expected to fluctuate [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by tariff policies and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high prices and replenish on dips [11] - Aluminum: With increased production capacity and demand, and considering tariff impacts, it is recommended to buy on dips, with the main contract reference range of 20300 - 21000 [13] - Nickel: Affected by macro - factors and nickel - related policies, it is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [13][14] - Tin: With supply and demand changes, it is expected to have greater price fluctuations. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions and not chase highs, with the reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 05 contract [15] - Silver and Gold: Affected by economic data, tariff policies, and market sentiment, it is recommended to build positions on dips and be cautious about chasing highs [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With weak demand, high supply pressure, and limited fundamental drivers, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, with the upper resistance at 5200 [20] - Caustic Soda: With high inventory and limited upward drivers, it is expected to fluctuate [23] - Urea: With a slight decrease in supply and stable demand, and considering inventory changes, it is recommended for range trading, with the 05 contract reference range of 1720 - 1900 [23][24] - Methanol: With high domestic production, sufficient supply, and certain downstream demand support, it is expected to trade in the range of 2500 - 2650 [24][25] - Soda Ash: With increasing supply and relatively slow demand improvement, it is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to hold short call options [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: With weak market consumption, they are expected to fluctuate [26] - Apples: With good inventory clearance and low inventory, the price is expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner [26] - PTA: Affected by crude oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and processing fees, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4700 - 5000 [27][28] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: With short - term supply pressure and limited terminal consumption, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to short at high prices [29][31] - Eggs: With increasing supply and demand in the short - term and increasing supply pressure in the long - term, the 05 contract is recommended to hedge on rebounds, and the 08 and 09 contracts are recommended to be shorted [30][31] - Corn: With reduced selling pressure and tightened supply - demand in the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, with the 05 contract focusing on the support range of 2250 - 2270 [32][33] - Soybean Meal: With short - term weak performance and long - term cost support, different strategies are recommended for different contracts [33][34] - Oils: With short - term supply pressure and long - term potential for price rebound, different contracts are recommended for range trading and spread trading [34][39]
期货市场交易指引-2025-03-31
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-03-31 09:21