Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - The consumption growth rate of new energy vehicles has declined, but the overall resilience is acceptable. The supply remains high, and the supply structure is in the transition stage, with no significant changes in the fundamentals [4]. - During the reporting period, the prices of spodumene and lepidolite both declined slightly [4]. - The cost center is expected to move down, and the fundamentals may be marginally corrected. Lithium prices will maintain low - level fluctuations. With the inflow of low - cost salt lake resources, the scale of high - cost hard rock lithium extraction will gradually shrink, and the comprehensive cost center of circulating resources is expected to decline. In April, the production schedule of battery cell factories may expand, and potential consumption is expected to be boosted by auto shows and replacement policies. The supply is expected to decline in April, but the current lithium salt is still in the inventory accumulation stage, suppressing the upward space of lithium prices. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [4]. Group 3: Market Data Summary - Imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) price decreased from $121/ton to $118/ton, a decrease of 2.48% [6]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) price decreased from $743/ton to $730/ton, a decrease of 1.75% [6]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) price decreased from $743/ton to $730/ton, a decrease of 1.75% [6]. - The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,200 yuan/ton to 74,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% [6]. - The spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped from 72,900 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100% [6]. - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased from 73,100 yuan/ton to 73,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% [6]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory increased from 85,459 tons to 88,528 tons, an increase of 3.59% [6]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of March 28, 2025, the warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 35,782 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 74,100 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2505 was 218,300 lots [8]. - As of March 28, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17,365 tons, a decrease of 120 tons from the previous period. With the warming of the northern climate, salt lake lithium production has resumed, and the comprehensive cost of circulating resources is expected to decline [8]. - In February, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 12,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The import volume from Chile was 7,572 tons, accounting for about 61%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 40%. The import volume from Argentina was 4,388 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.5% and a year - on - year increase of 77.3%. The export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile in February was about 14,600 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 27% and 43% respectively. The export volume to China was 12,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 25% and 37% respectively. The import resources are expected to be abundant in March and may shrink from April [9]. - In February, the import volume of lithium ore was about 567,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9% [10]. - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of March 21, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 59,211 tons, with an operating rate of 54.84%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 36,245 tons, an increase of 191 tons from the previous period. The production of ternary materials was about 13,150 tons, with an operating rate of 41.9%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,835 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous period. The prices of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate remained relatively stable. The cost side was relatively stable, and the demand for energy storage showed a downward trend, while the power terminal was relatively stable [11]. - In the new energy vehicle field, from March 1 - 23, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 622,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 30% compared with the same period in March last year and a month - on - month increase of 40%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.048 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34%. As of March 14, about 1.3 million applications for automobile trade - in subsidies had been received, and the trade - in consumption accounted for about 70.81%. The new policy has a significant driving effect on new energy consumption. The "Boosting Consumption Special Action Plan" was issued, and the policy resilience is expected to be strong [12]. - As of March 21, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 88,528 tons, an increase of about 3,069 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory decreased by 1,600 tons, and the market inventory increased by 4,669 tons. The downstream replenished inventory, but the demand increase was less than the supply increase, and the de - stocking of lithium salt factories was far less than the inventory increase downstream [13]. This Week's Outlook - The bearish expectation continues. The cost center is expected to move down, the fundamentals may be marginally corrected, and lithium prices will maintain low - level fluctuations. Attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Group 5: Industry News - Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars, which is expected to bring an additional $100 billion in revenue to the United States each year [15]. - CoreLithium said that the restart research of the Finniss lithium mine project was progressing well and was expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2025. The company terminated the last operation contract, completed all obligations to third - parties, and obtained 100% ownership of all infrastructure, which is expected to reduce future operating costs [15]. - Japan made an initial anti - dumping ruling on Chinese graphite electrodes, with a dumping margin of 104.61% [16]. - Tibet Summit's "Annual 30,000 - ton Lithium Carbonate Salt Lake Lithium Extraction Construction Project" in Angeles has officially obtained the "Environmental Impact Statement". The first - phase 10,000 - ton equipment has arrived at the site, and the company is promoting project construction [16]. Group 6: Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those on lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and the production of related cathode materials and batteries [18][20][22]
碳酸锂周报：偏空预期延续，关注反弹沽空机会-2025-03-31
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-03-31 09:20