2025年光伏行业年度策略：光伏：基本面“触底反弹”，“电算一体化”新场景兴起

Core Insights - The report outlines three main investment themes for the photovoltaic (PV) industry in 2025: cyclical rebound, AIDC integration monetization, and cross-industry growth validation [3][4][7]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global PV demand growth is expected to slow down to approximately 10% in 2025, with varying forecasts from different institutions [8][12]. - The demand in traditional markets like Europe and the U.S. is projected to face challenges due to high base effects and policy uncertainties, while new applications such as data centers may stimulate demand [17][24]. - China's PV demand is anticipated to decline by 15% year-on-year to 235 GW in 2025, influenced by high base effects and new policy impacts [44][41]. Group 2: AIDC Integration Opportunities - The report highlights the role of PV in AIDC, including distributed generation, energy storage, and green electricity trading, which presents new investment opportunities [4][7]. - AI technology is expected to enhance PV efficiency through predictive analytics and virtual power plants, creating synergistic scenarios for investment [4][7]. Group 3: Cross-Industry Expansion - PV companies are exploring cross-industry expansions to uncover second growth curves, particularly in areas like robotics and AI [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological collaboration, such as the expansion into perovskite technology and the integration of cutting-edge manufacturing techniques [4][7]. Group 4: Supply Chain Analysis - The silicon material supply is projected to recover in 2025, driven by demand from distributed and centralized projects, which may lead to price stabilization [50][53]. - The silicon wafer sector is expected to see a recovery in profit margins as inventory levels normalize and production rates adjust [63][67]. - The battery cell segment is anticipated to benefit from a favorable supply-demand situation, with a focus on new technologies like BC cells [72][78].