氧化铝、铝二季度展望与策略

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global electrolytic aluminum supply in 2025 is 7345 million tons, an increase of 125 million tons or 1.7%. The supply growth rate in China slows down significantly, while overseas supply increases steadily. The growth rate of domestic aluminum demand in 2025 faces certain pressure, and the growth rate drops significantly. The global supply and demand in 2024 are in short - supply, and in 2025, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, with the price expected to fluctuate between 19,000 - 21,000 [83][86]. Summary by Directory Aluminum Bauxite - Overseas - In Q2 2025, the quotation of Guinea bauxite (45/3) is around $90 per dry ton. Downstream users' procurement intention is around CIF $85 per ton, but the upstream is strong with long - term contracts at $94 - 95. The total imported bauxite from January to February is 9.51 million tons, a 11.9% increase year - on - year. The bauxite ocean freight rebounds to $20 - 25 per ton. In early 2025, Guinea mines increase mining and shipping volume [3][11]. - In 2025, the overseas bauxite supply will continue to grow, mainly from Guinea (+30 - 40 million tons), with small increments from Australia (+2 million tons), Guyana (+2 million tons), and Sierra Leone (+3 million tons). The high - price situation makes the overseas ore supply increment release faster than expected. The current comprehensive mining cost of Guinea mines is $50 - 60 per ton, and the ore price may fall to $70 - 80 per ton within the year [15]. - Multiple mines in Guinea have production increase or new projects in 2025, with a total planned increase of 34.5 million tons [13]. Aluminum Bauxite - Domestic - The domestic bauxite quotation is in a slow downward phase. The domestic bauxite output from January to February is 9.511 million tons, a 11.9% year - on - year increase. After the Spring Festival, mines resume production, and the subsequent supply increment will gradually increase. The domestic ore output is expected to increase by 3 - 4 million tons year - on - year. The price of domestic ore in Q2 is expected to have a certain downward space [21]. Alumina - Domestic - From January to February, the domestic alumina output is 14.94 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase. The national alumina installed capacity is 108.22 million tons, with 92.9 million tons in operation and an operating rate of 85.8%. The cost of alumina using imported ore in Shanxi is 3478 yuan per ton [29]. - Since the beginning of the year, the alumina supply has exceeded expectations, and the current industry supply has turned into a large - scale surplus. Short - term losses have caused a small reduction in supply, but the quantity is limited [31]. - New alumina projects in Q1 have led to an oversupply situation for the whole year. In Q2, the supply pressure remains, and new project launches are more determined than expected, which is expected to exacerbate the oversupply. Low - cost new capacities will squeeze out and replace high - cost projects [34]. Alumina - Overseas - In 2025, the overseas alumina new capacity is 5.5 million tons. The SGAR project reaches full production, and the Indonesia Jinjiang project is put into operation. The current overseas price is gradually falling, the import window is closed, and the export window is open [40]. - The industry returns to cost - based pricing. High - cost projects in Shanxi and Henan need to exit to repair the supply - demand balance sheet. In Q2, the cost is temporarily stable, and the futures price enters a bottom - grinding stage, fluctuating between 3000 - 3200 yuan for the time being. In the medium term, the alumina price has not yet escaped the downward cycle, with support at 2800 - 2900 yuan. However, due to the high concentration of ore and smelting, attention should be paid to the long - position opportunities after extremely pessimistic prices [47]. Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In 2024, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output is 43.205 million tons, a 165.5 - million - ton or 4.0% increase year - on - year. The total domestic primary aluminum supply is 45.205 million tons, a 226.2 - million - ton or 5.3% increase year - on - year [51][59]. - In 2025, the domestic primary aluminum new capacity is expected to be 300,000 tons, and the capacity to be restarted is 390,000 tons. The output is 43.951 million tons, a 74.6 - million - ton or 1.7% increase year - on - year. The primary aluminum import window is difficult to open, and the import in 2025 is expected to be 1.5 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease year - on - year. The total domestic primary aluminum supply is 45.451 million tons, a 25 - million - ton or 0.5% increase year - on - year. The domestic primary aluminum supply officially enters a low - growth cycle [60]. Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In 2024, the overseas electrolytic aluminum output is 29 million tons, a 470,000 - ton or 1.6% increase year - on - year. The overseas supply increases slightly and steadily. In Q4, due to the increase in cost, the electrolytic aluminum production launch rhythm slows down [64]. - In 2025, the overseas electrolytic aluminum supply maintains a slight increasing trend. The output is 29.56 million tons, a 560,000 - ton or 2.0% increase year - on - year. The supply is 28.06 million tons, a 1.07 - million - ton or 3.9% increase year - on - year. At the beginning of the year, the overseas electrolytic aluminum supply release is generally better than expected, and the supply in Q2 rises steadily [67]. Consumption - In Q1, the demand from the real estate and export sectors is poor, while the demand from the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors is better than expected. In the first half of Q2, the domestic aluminum demand still has support. Attention should be paid to the demand performance after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush in May and the arrival of the consumption off - season, and the demand is expected to face certain weakening pressure. The annual demand forecast is slightly raised, with the domestic aluminum demand in 2025 expected to be 45.672 million tons, a 38 - million - ton or 1% increase [79]. Balance Sheet and Core Viewpoints - Supply: In 2024, both domestic capacity increase and restart contribute to output growth, with a relatively fast growth rate. In 2025, the domestic contribution is small, and the output growth rate significantly declines. Overseas, new capacities continue to be released in both 2024 and 2025, with a steady and small increase in output [83]. - Demand: In 2024, the domestic total aluminum demand grows rapidly, while in 2025, the growth rate faces pressure and significantly declines [83]. - Balance: In 2024, the global supply and demand are in short - supply, with shortages in both domestic and overseas markets, and the overseas gap is larger [83]. Aluminum Market Trading Rhythm and Strategy - Long - term: The global aluminum market enters a low - supply cycle in the long run. Demand is supported by new - energy and power - grid investment, and it has long - term long - position value [86]. - Medium - term: In Q2, the supply side increases slightly, and demand shifts from the peak season to the off - season. Attention should be paid to the demand decline after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush. From April to May, a band - trading strategy should be adopted, with a smaller short - position and a larger long - position. From May to June, a short - position strategy can be moderately adopted, while paying attention to long - position opportunities below 20,000 yuan. In the second half of the year, with Trump's tax cuts and the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the global manufacturing industry recovers, and the direction is bullish. Attention should be paid to the changes in US - Russia relations [86]. - Summary: The electrolytic aluminum market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand this year, with little supply - demand contradiction. The price is expected to fluctuate between 19,000 - 21,000 yuan throughout the year. The general idea is to be optimistic when the price drops significantly and pessimistic when it rises significantly [86].