4月基金配置展望：大盘风格短期占优

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In April, the large-cap style may dominate in the short term, while the mid-term trend of the growth style's dominance this year remains. It is recommended to appropriately reduce the allocation of equity assets, focus on large-cap, growth, and high-profit quality styles in the growth-value style, and pay attention to relatively stable "fixed income +" funds and short-duration bond funds [2]. Summary by Directory 3 - Month Review - Stock Market: A - shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.92% and the Sci - tech Innovation 50 falling 4.57%. U.S. stocks declined, with the Dow Jones Index down 5.15% and the Nasdaq Index down 8.09%. The technology sector in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks had a significant correction, and the dividend sector was relatively resilient. A - shares first rose and then fell, with the CSI 500 having a relatively large increase. Among styles, the mid - cap value style had the largest increase [8][13]. - Bond Market: Both U.S. Treasury and Chinese government bond yields increased. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.27%, and the 1 - year slightly decreased to 4.04%. In China, the 10 - year government bond yield rose to 1.81% and the 1 - year to 1.53%, with the term spread widening [8][18]. - Foreign Exchange Market: The U.S. dollar index declined to 104.03 due to weak U.S. consumer data. The RMB appreciated, with the on - shore exchange rate rising to 7.26 and the off - shore to 7.27 [22]. - Commodity Market: Crude oil prices increased due to geopolitical conflicts. Overseas commodity prices rose, while domestic ones fluctuated. Among domestic commodities, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, soft commodities, and energy prices increased, with precious metals having the largest increase, while chemical commodity prices had the largest decline [26]. - Fund Market: The fund market performed well in March, with the issuance scale increasing. As of March 28, the total fund issuance scale was 100.7 billion yuan, a 53% increase from the previous month. Equity - type funds' issuance scale was 34.7 billion yuan, an 11% increase from the previous month, accounting for 34% of the total issuance. Equity - type ETF and LOF funds had net outflows. Active equity funds increased their positions in quality and value - potential styles and reduced their positions in the prosperity style [33][39][40]. 4 - Month Outlook - Asset Allocation Logic: The stock - bond rotation model shows that the private - sector financing growth rate continued to decline in February, and the inflation factor decreased. The economic recovery trend remains to be observed. In the current macro - environment, the momentum factor has significant signal value. The A - share market sentiment index shows that the sentiment of being bullish on the equity market in the next month has fluctuated, and currently only the proportion of stocks hitting a one - year high and the margin balance remain bullish [2]. - Style Rotation Models: The growth - value style rotation model recommends the growth style, as the U.S. Treasury yield favors value, while the market factor and style momentum favor growth. The large - small - cap style rotation model recommends the large - cap style, as the credit environment and long - term style momentum favor small - caps, while the monetary environment and short - term style momentum favor large - caps [2]. - Fund Allocation Strategy: Given the current situation where the fundamentals have not reversed and market volatility has increased, it is recommended to appropriately reduce the allocation of equity assets. In the short term, the large - cap style may dominate in April, and the mid - term trend of the growth style's dominance this year remains. It is recommended to focus on large - cap, growth, and high - profit quality styles in the growth - value style. For "fixed income +" funds, focus on relatively stable varieties, and for bond funds, focus on short - duration varieties. Recommended funds include ICBC High - Quality Growth (009029.OF, medium - high risk), Anxin Advantage Growth (001287.OF, medium - high risk), Dongfanghong CSI Oriental Dividend Low - Volatility (012708.OF), BOC Stable Income (380009.OF, medium risk), and Penghua Stable Short - Term Bond (007515.OF) [2].