爱玛科技（603529）：政策、渠道、产品共振，25年有望加速成长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 65.71 [9][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the 2025 "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly boost the consumption potential of electric two-wheelers, leading to a notable increase in industry prosperity. As an industry leader, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the demand expansion and market optimization opportunities arising from the "old-for-new + new national standard" policy cycle [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The 2025 "old-for-new" policy will expand the scope of old vehicle collection and simplify processes, which is expected to enhance consumer participation. The average subsidy for electric two-wheelers has increased to RMB 610, with daily replacement volumes rising approximately 135% compared to 2024. This could lead to over 9 million vehicle replacements throughout the year, indicating a clear trend of sales recovery in the industry [3][15]. Channel Strategy - In 2025, the company plans to continue expanding its store network, focusing on urban communities and rural markets. Over 90% of the planned 11,463 new stores will be located in these areas, which will enhance market coverage and consumer reach. The company aims to match or exceed its competitor in store count, thereby accelerating market share acquisition [4][22]. Product Development - The company is set to launch multiple new products in 2025, including the flagship electric motorcycle A7 PLUS, which features advanced smart technology. The penetration rate of smart products is expected to exceed 90%, targeting younger consumers and enhancing product pricing. Additionally, the company will strengthen its offerings for female consumers and expand its three-wheeled product line to capture growing demand in leisure vehicles [5][23]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are RMB 2.09 billion, RMB 2.75 billion, and RMB 3.26 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.42, RMB 3.19, and RMB 3.78. The target price is based on a PE ratio of 20.6 for 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous target price of RMB 41.46 [6][8].