美国生物燃料需求前景有望改善，对油脂市场影响几何？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On the evening of March 27, the US government asked oil and biofuel producers to reach an agreement on the next stage of the national biofuel policy. The preliminary agreement on increasing the total biofuel blending volume is expected to boost the future biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. This event led to a significant increase in US soybean oil and domestic oils and fats [1][5]. - The meeting participants basically agreed to significantly increase the biofuel blending requirements. The current EPA - regulated total blending volume of biodiesel + renewable diesel in 2025 is 3.35 billion gallons, and the discussed blending range is between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons, corresponding to an incremental raw material demand of 5.2034 - 7.991 million tons. This is very beneficial for the long - term biodiesel demand of US soybean oil [2][5]. - In the short term, this news will stimulate the collective rebound of domestic oils and fats by boosting the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. Palm oil will perform the strongest, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil will be less affected. In the long term, if the EPA raises the biofuel blending volume, it will support the prices of US soybean oil and the overall oils and fats market, but the actual support depends on the specific policy terms [3][20]. Summary by Related Content Impact on US Biofuel Policy and Demand - Before this event, the market was pessimistic about the US biodiesel policy in the Trump era. But now, the expectation is shaken as the meeting participants agreed to increase the blending requirements. The incremental blending volume of 1.4 - 2.15 billion gallons will significantly boost the biodiesel demand for various vegetable oils [5][6]. - There are uncertainties in the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, including limited raw material supply and pressing capacity, disputes over small refinery RFS exemptions, and the absence of tax credit policies [2][15]. Impact on Different Raw Materials - Although the US biodiesel has diverse raw material sources, considering the 45Z Act and trade disputes, the increase in blending volume is most beneficial for the price of domestic raw material, i.e., US soybean oil [2][10]. - The incremental raw material demand of 5.2034 - 7.991 million tons corresponds to an incremental soybean oil demand of 1.82 - 2.8 million tons. Considering the supply gap transfer, the data will be higher. The incremental soybean demand can be met through domestic soybean expansion, transfer of export demand to pressing demand, or imports, but each method has limitations [2][12][13]. Market Impact and Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, from April, the oils and fats market will face supply pressure, but there are also positive factors that will disturb the decline. Rapeseed oil will show relatively strong oscillations. In the long term, in the third quarter of 25/26, soybean and rapeseed oils are expected to lead the oils and fats market to stop falling and rebound [21]. - For trading strategies, the 05 contracts of soybean and palm oils are expected to oscillate within the ranges of 7700 - 8200 and 8700 - 9200 respectively. It is recommended to operate within the ranges and pay attention to the inventory inflection point of palm oil and soybean arrivals. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the pressure at 9300. For arbitrage, focus on the strategy of expanding the spreads of 09 contracts of rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean oils [21].