食品饮料行业周报：白酒基本面平稳，优选绩优公司

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][35] Core Viewpoints - The liquor market remains stable, with a focus on high-performing companies. Post-Spring Festival, liquor sales have been steady, with no significant changes compared to the previous period. The industry shows a clear Matthew effect, with core products performing well. It is expected that mainstream liquor companies will achieve single-digit positive growth in Q1 2025, providing some support for stock prices. Long-term demand recovery is anticipated with the implementation of consumer policies, although short-term tariff risks need to be monitored [6][4]. - In the food sector, the snack industry is experiencing a surge in new products, and investment opportunities in the snack and catering supply chain are recommended. The snack sector continues to benefit from channel and product advantages, while the catering industry is expected to stabilize and show slight recovery throughout the year [6][5]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index (CITIC) has a cumulative increase of +0.23%. The top three performing stocks are: Jinshiyuan (+1.94%), Luzhou Laojiao (+1.24%), and Kweichow Moutai (+0.73%). The bottom three are: Yingjia Gongjiu (-3.05%), Huangtai Jiuye (-4.64%), and Yanshi Co. (-31.24%) [6]. - Recommended stocks include high-end liquor with strong demand such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao; next-tier liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu; and real estate liquor brands like Yingjia Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Laobai Gan Jiu, and Gujing Gong Jiu [6][4]. Food Industry - The food index (CITIC) has a cumulative decrease of -0.41%. The top three performing stocks are: Guangming Meat Industry (+13.02%), Jiahe Food (+6.44%), and Yanjinpuzi (+5.33%). The bottom three are: Xiwang Food (-7.24%), Lianhua Holdings (-9.29%), and Baiyang Co. (-12.25%) [6]. - Investment opportunities in the snack industry are highlighted, with companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi recommended. The catering industry is expected to stabilize, with potential recovery, and related sectors such as beer, condiments, and frozen foods should be monitored [6][5]. Individual Company Insights - Kweichow Moutai expects a 15.44% increase in total revenue for 2024, with Q4 2024 revenue projected at 50.7 billion yuan, a 12.0% year-on-year increase [7]. - Wuliangye's revenue for Q3 2024 is 17.3 billion yuan, with a 1.4% year-on-year increase. The company plans to maintain a cash dividend of at least 70% of net profit for 2024-2026 [7]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Q3 2024 revenue is 7.4 billion yuan, with a 0.7% year-on-year increase. The company is focusing on its core brand and expanding its market presence [7]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's Q3 2024 revenue is 8.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with strong performance in mid-to-high-end products [7]. - Other companies such as Gujing Gong Jiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinshiyuan also maintain a "Recommended" rating based on their performance and market strategies [8][9].