有色金属行业周报：黄金向上动能较强，工业金属预期回暖

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [3][5]. Core Views - The report indicates strong upward momentum for gold, with industrial metals expected to recover. The U.S. economic growth forecast has been revised down, and inflation, debt, and tariffs are driving gold prices higher. The Federal Reserve has significantly lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.1% and raised its inflation forecast to 2.8% from 2.5% [5][21]. - Industrial metals are anticipated to see increased demand due to a recovering industrial sector, supported by fiscal policy measures. The report highlights a 5.9% year-on-year increase in industrial value added for January-February and a 4.1% increase in fixed asset investment [5][30]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Trends - From March 24 to March 28, the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index fell by 0.22%, with industrial metals down 0.17% and precious metals down 2.04% [10]. - The report notes significant fluctuations in individual stocks, with top gainers including Tianli Composite and Xinyi Ling, while major losers included Yongmaotai and Huayu Mining [11]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have continued to rise, surpassing $3000 per ounce, driven by persistent inflation and debt concerns in the U.S. The core PCE price index rose to 2.8% year-on-year in February, exceeding expectations [5][21]. - The report suggests that the ongoing economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures will keep gold prices elevated [5][21]. Industrial Metals - The report cites a 5.9% year-on-year growth in industrial value added and a 4.1% increase in fixed asset investment for the first two months of 2025, indicating a recovery in the industrial sector [30]. - The anticipated recovery in the industrial sector is expected to boost demand for industrial metals, with manufacturing investment growing by 9% [30]. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report highlights several companies to watch, including Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH), Hunan Gold (002155.SZ), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), and Western Mining (601168.SH) [5][6]. - Profit forecasts for these companies indicate varying earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with Hunan Gold projected to have an EPS of 0.75 in 2024 and a PE of 30.9 [6].